2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1617840232405270528

Simultaneously having Lean D Montana and Tossup AZ is ridiculous.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1617840232405270528
Simultaneously having Lean D Montana and Tossup AZ is ridiculous.

Is it a rule that incumbents can’t start as underdogs? West Virginia at tossup is crazy.

I don’t like to start races as likely, but I think Florida is where it should be. I think many have been assigning false equivalence to Florida and treating it as more competitive than it is just because it is the best D pickup opportunity, not taking into account the massive registration trends.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The potential for a 3-way race in Arizona makes Tossup a very reasonable starting rating.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Meanwhile Sabato actually starts WV as a flip. Honestly, I think these ratings are a bit overconfident on both sides this far out, and states like TX, PA, MN, and NV should all be bumped down a rating.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1617840232405270528

Simultaneously having Lean D Montana and Tossup AZ is ridiculous.

Cook always heavily leans in favor of incumbents, especially early in the cycle.  I have never heard of them rating an incumbent as anything worse than Toss Up until at least the opposing nomination has been decided.

I'm not sure what your objection to AZ being a toss-up is. I'd say it's tilt D, so I can't really argue wit Toss Up or Lean D.  MT I'd put in basically the same category, and given Cook's bias toward incumbents, I'm not surprised at all they went Lean D.

This map is basically exactly what I expected, except I'm a little surprised they didn't make TX Likely R and PA Likely D.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1617840232405270528

Simultaneously having Lean D Montana and Tossup AZ is ridiculous.

People be paying $350/year for this

[wbrocks67]

Texas being Safe R is a little ridiculous. It'll be a heavy lift, but Cruz did terribly in 2018 and if the state continues to trend left after Biden's 5pt loss... it's not impossible

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

We're like 21 months away from the 2024 Election. Election ratings shouldn't be given any semblance of seriousness until 6-8 months out at the earliest

[wbrocks67]

We're like 21 months away from the 2024 Election. They shouldn't be given any semblance of seriousness until 6 months out, at the soonest.

Jessica Taylor also still hasn't commented on how they got the last cycle so wrong.

[MT Treasurer]

AZ being more competitive than MT is of course utter nonsense even when you account for the "possibility of a three-way race" given that (a) Sinema has been polling in the low teens/high single digits, (b) there is no sign that Sinema is drawing considerably more support from Democrats than Republicans, (c) Sinema's support isn’t particularly likely to grow unless one of the two party estalblishments/state parties unites behind her instead of supporting their own party's nominee (not happening), (d) the GOP "bench" in AZ is in no way "stronger" than in MT.

So Cook is just memeing about open seats and Titanium Tester... again. However, I guess at least Menendez isn’t more vulnerable than Tester this time around and Manchin isn’t Lean D like Doug Jones was in 2019, so we’ve made progress!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes we're not winning TX and FL with this Document gate going on

It's a shame no one except Matt Sancramainte has declared in FL he, Scott is vulnerable but he should win by 17 against a no name

We can he down or 48 seats but Collins, Ernst and Tillis are vulnerable in 26 ESPECIALLY since Golden is ready to do a Gallego and Collins didn't block Voting Rights in 20 she voted for Stimulus check

If Biden isn't on the ballot and Harris and Gilchrist are we have a better sgit at keeping a 51/50 S

[Unelectable Bystander]

Texas being Safe R is a little ridiculous. It'll be a heavy lift, but Cruz did terribly in 2018 and if the state continues to trend left after Biden's 5pt loss... it's not impossible

I usually buy into Blexas far less than others, but I have to agree it’s closer to lean than safe. Safe should be reserved for candidates that can survive a major scandal, wave environment, and strong challenger all at once. That isn’t really possible for someone that ran a close race last time.

[Xing]

So Cook literally believes that MT is more likely to stay Democratic than AZ and that FL is a more plausible Democratic pick-up than TX? He really does live up to the memes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So Cook literally believes that MT is more likely to stay Democratic than AZ and that FL is a more plausible Democratic pick-up than TX? He really does live up to the memes.

Tester, Brown, since 2006, haven't lost yet and Daines was a much tougher opponent, to Bullock in 2020 than Zinke and Rosedale, Tester already beat Conrad, Rosedale and Rehberg and the reason why OH is a tossup not Lean R is that Vance only won because of DeWine winning by 25, DeWine won by 3 in 2018 and he Brown won, lol it's 2 yrs till Eday let's wait till polls come but we don't know the fallout from Docugate

That's why we need to wait til we Donate until the primary' Jan 24 not rush like we always due to donate to Act Blue

Ryan, Joe Kennedy, Strickland, Hillary, Bullock, Boiler Ryan all were getting early donations because of 1 person Bernie energized Donations, Hillary and Biden Capitalized on it and so did Obama get early donations but Bernie is running for reelection and since Phil Scott is Gov he won't be running for Prez if Biden doesn't run it's Harris and Gilchrist, Gilchrist wants to be S if offered he wants Veep

Users say oh I am excited over Gallego didn't learn the Strickland, Ryan, Bullock lessons they all lost with early Donations and it's 2 yrs prior to Eday

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1620811168343556097

We have Q4 fundraising numbers from all incumbents but Gillibrand

[wbrocks67]

Rosen already getting a jump, nice to see. $1.5M is extremely solid from her.

[Roll Roons]

Cook's initial house ratings are out: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

A handful of incumbents in both parties start at tossup, including four NY Republican freshmen and several Dems in NC and OH due to uncertainty over redistricting in those states.

One incumbent starts as an underdog. No points for guessing who that is.

[wbrocks67]

These ratings are kind of a hot mess, it seems like Cook learned nothing from 2022.

[Gracile]

These ratings seem sensible this far out. I'm quite surprised they put Santos at Lean D, as Cook is usually quite reluctant to put incumbents as underdogs to start (no matter how scandal-plagued or unfavorable their districts are).

[Vosem]

Seems mostly reasonable? I think the Senate numbers are a bit overconfident for Democrats, but not egregious, and in the House I would mostly just have extremely minor nitpicks (I would flip Kean Jr. and Bacon, and I would flip Landsman and Kaptur; probably a few more if I sat down and thought about it). In general, it seems a little over-indexed on 2022 and a little under-indexed on 2020, but that in itself is a defensible choice.

These ratings are kind of a hot mess, it seems like Cook learned nothing from 2022.

Fun fact time! Cook literally only got one seat wrong in 2022: WA-3, where Perez beat Kent. They had that seat as Leans R; no other seat that they predicted as Leans or Likely went for the other party. (This might mean that they're way too conservative with their tossups. Races that Cook called a 'Tossup' broke pretty hard Democratic in 2022, 25-11. OTOH, this compares extremely favorably to 2020 when Republicans swept every race Cook labelled a Tossup, 27-0, along with winning 5 Leans D seats and a Likely D; you have to contend with them having learned earlier lessons.)

In general, Tossups normally break towards one party or another; they basically never split down the middle.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I also think the ratings are pretty reasonable. Alaska starting off as Likely D is so beautiful it brings a tear to my eye.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ratings are meaningless 2 yrs before Eday it's meaningless now with KY and MS good or bad

We saw what happened to Tim Ryan he said he was gonna win because his internal shows him winning and he Lost

That's why users keep comparing the AZ Sen race is meaningless now until next Jan 24


All we know is that Docugate shrunk the battleground TX and FL aren't gonna be competitive like it would of been otherwise

But there is the blk vote with WI, MI and PA

[wbrocks67]

What doesn't make sense to me is them giving these Republicans who barely won *in a red midterm year* some type of incumbency advantage, while Ds who won these seats are Tossups? And I don't get why they're trying to predict OH and NC redistricting. Just put the seats as they are now, we don't know how that's going to shake out. OH-01 and OH-13 being "Tossups" when Landsman and Sykes won by 5-6 in 2022 is absolutely ridiculous.

Same with Manning, Jackson, and Davis in NC. Those *presently* are all Lean Democrat.

I would also venture to say that Nickel and Vasquez are closer to Lean D too.

Caraveo I think should be Lean D, but I get it being in Tossup because of how close it was. Perez, Wild, and Cartwright all are fine though again, I’m sure Wild and Cartwright will be underestimated again.

Kiggans being in Lean R makes no sense to me, she barely won that seat, and it’s a marginal Biden seat. Same with IA-03, MI-10, and NE-02. Those should all be in tossup.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Victoria Spartz bowing out of the House after just four years.

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1621554662133334017?s=20&t=WUpGT-eJky37hy...

[Pollster]

Appears to be the first non-higher office seeking retirement of the cycle.