NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fun fact, Brett M. Pugach actually features in the Third Circuit opinion as a Bernie 2020 delegate on one of the pictures of county-line ballots included as examples.

[wbrocks67]

Apparently the threshold is very low to get on the ballot as Indy. We'll see

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1794182368930255256

[Torie]

The theory is that Menendez senior will be exonerated before the election. Good luck with that.

[Compuzled_One]

Apparently the threshold is very low to get on the ballot as Indy. We'll see

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1794182368930255256

Will this be a Lieberman deal where he'll keep being a Democrat while being on the ballot as an indie, or will he ditch the party completely?

Also, he can apparently leave by August 16th if he wants to, so he likely won't campaign from prison.

[Oryxslayer]

As was reported months ago, the whole point of such a move would be to allow him to continue to raise and use money from the campaign for legal expenses. And that would be the only expected end. The guy has single digit approval with republicans, and only a tiny bit better with Dems. The guy has bigger issues to worry about than anything electoral.

[Compuzled_One]

As was reported months ago, the whole point of such a move would be to allow him to continue to raise and use money from the campaign for legal expenses. And that would be the only expected end. The guy has single digit approval with republicans, and only a tiny bit better with Dems. The guy has bigger issues to worry about than anything electoral.

But why collect signatures at all? Plus, he has 3.5 million in cash left, and the trial began already. I genuinely think he's that petty and/or arrogant.

[wbrocks67]

As was reported months ago, the whole point of such a move would be to allow him to continue to raise and use money from the campaign for legal expenses. And that would be the only expected end. The guy has single digit approval with republicans, and only a tiny bit better with Dems. The guy has bigger issues to worry about than anything electoral.

Where's he getting donations from though??

[Progressive Pessimist]

As was reported months ago, the whole point of such a move would be to allow him to continue to raise and use money from the campaign for legal expenses. And that would be the only expected end. The guy has single digit approval with republicans, and only a tiny bit better with Dems. The guy has bigger issues to worry about than anything electoral.

Where's he getting donations from though??

Egyptian gold buyers.

[Miked0920]

Do you think that Menendez will ac tally be convicted on any of his 15 or so counts against him. Juries are extremely hard to convince that the defendant if they are a politician are guilty. I wish he wouldn't run as an independent. It could possibly split the vote just enough to allow a Republican to win a senate seat here for the first time since 1972. Andy Kim is still heavily favored and its unlikely even with Menendez that the GOP takes this seat, but its worth keeping an eye on especially if Menendez is found not guilty or has a hung jury.

[kwabbit]

Lmao. Dems should be thankful they have a top tier candidate in Kim and not Tammy Murphy, although I think Menendez would get more against Kim because of Murphy's institutional strength being useful in Hispanic/Black cities.

[Compuzled_One]

Lmao. Dems should be thankful they have a top tier candidate in Kim and not Tammy Murphy, although I think Menendez would get more against Kim because of Murphy's institutional strength being useful in Hispanic/Black cities.

I think Murphy would've bled more-she's an insanely bad campaigner and I imagine a decent chunk of Kim supporters would have left their Senate ballot blank if she ran, especially if things change in the next couple of months and it looks like Tester and/or Brown will lose.

[kwabbit]

Lmao. Dems should be thankful they have a top tier candidate in Kim and not Tammy Murphy, although I think Menendez would get more against Kim because of Murphy's institutional strength being useful in Hispanic/Black cities.

I think Murphy would've bled more-she's an insanely bad campaigner and I imagine a decent chunk of Kim supporters would have left their Senate ballot blank if she ran, especially if things change in the next couple of months and it looks like Tester and/or Brown will lose.

Murphy would definitely do worse, I think Menendez would just do worse as well. Kim supporters would not vote for Gold Bar Bob.

[Compuzled_One]

Lmao. Dems should be thankful they have a top tier candidate in Kim and not Tammy Murphy, although I think Menendez would get more against Kim because of Murphy's institutional strength being useful in Hispanic/Black cities.

I think Murphy would've bled more-she's an insanely bad campaigner and I imagine a decent chunk of Kim supporters would have left their Senate ballot blank if she ran, especially if things change in the next couple of months and it looks like Tester and/or Brown will lose.

Murphy would definitely do worse, I think Menendez would just do worse as well. Kim supporters would not vote for Gold Bar Bob.

Fair enough. Also, yeah, I don't see any Kim primary supporter backing Menendez unless some bombshell came out that showed he was innocent.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lmao. Dems should be thankful they have a top tier candidate in Kim and not Tammy Murphy, although I think Menendez would get more against Kim because of Murphy's institutional strength being useful in Hispanic/Black cities.

I think Murphy would've bled more-she's an insanely bad campaigner and I imagine a decent chunk of Kim supporters would have left their Senate ballot blank if she ran, especially if things change in the next couple of months and it looks like Tester and/or Brown will lose.

Murphy would definitely do worse, I think Menendez would just do worse as well. Kim supporters would not vote for Gold Bar Bob.

Fair enough. Also, yeah, I don't see any Kim primary supporter backing Menendez unless some bombshell came out that showed he was innocent.

Even that wouldn’t matter at this point

[brucejoel99]

Do you think that Menendez will ac tally be convicted on any of his 15 or so counts against him. Juries are extremely hard to convince that the defendant if they are a politician are guilty.

Well, the SDNY's prosecution team lowk dropped the ball a little bit by just kinda ignoring the Speech/Debate Clause & keeping some text messages that it clearly applies to as critical evidence in the case 'til after the trial had already started, but most of the evidence won't be excluded by Speech/Debate & evidence of the agreement to bribe is enough to convict, no evidence of completion by way of official legislative action necessary, so he's probably still pretty screwed here.

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, Bob got his 800 signatures, but wants 10K signatures to show he has backing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-bob-menendez-signatures-run-independent-bribery-trial-rcna154656

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1797637142501638395?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1797640919510065429

[SnowLabrador]

Lean D.

[Mr. Smith]

Watch him get 20% at best.

[SnowLabrador]

Watch him get 20% at best.

That could be enough to tip it to the Republican.

[Compuzled_One]

If I remember, likely is the 10-15% range, so.

Likely D to Lean D.

In practice, I think Kim will still pull through.

Side note, does he have to leave the party?

[Compuzled_One]

Watch him get 20% at best.

I doubt that'll happen unless he runs a hypergenius campaign, has Kim and the Republican grab an idiot ball, and is acquited.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Watch him get 20% at best.

I doubt that'll happen unless he runs a hypergenius campaign, has Kim and the Republican grab an idiot ball, and is acquited.

Menendez is doing this to:

1.) gain money to fund his legal bills under the guise of campaign donations
2.) play blackmail with the government to get more lenient treatment of his crimes, then his campaign can just disappear

[Compuzled_One]

Watch him get 20% at best.

I doubt that'll happen unless he runs a hypergenius campaign, has Kim and the Republican grab an idiot ball, and is acquited.

Menendez is doing this to:

1.) gain money to fund his legal bills under the guise of campaign donations
2.) play blackmail with the government to get more lenient treatment of his crimes, then his campaign can just disappear

He's already in his trial and has three and a half million left with none needed for campaign staff (because he doesn't have any)-I don't think he needs anymore money.

I genuinely think he wants to run just to spite Kim at this point, and maybe in the vain hope either party's challengers steps aside and backs him to stop the other.