NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Vosem]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Chiesa is not a politician and is strongly associated with the poisonously unpopular Chris Christie in any case. Menendez seems like his hold on the Democrats is weaker than it was in 2018, with the emergence of an obvious successor in Mikie Sherrill and a Democratic party base that is higher-education and less likely to tolerate him.

In 2018, Bob Hugin ran 10 points ahead of House Republicans (Democrats won the generic ballot in NJ by 21 points, but Menendez won by just 11). If the Republican presidential candidate can hold the Democrat to single-digits in New Jersey and Menendez is renominated and the GOP practices good candidate discipline then the seat is winnable, but that's a big ask. In 2022, both parties contested every House seat in New Jersey and Democrats won 54-44, which seems good but sort of isn't -- in 2020, both parties also contested every seat and Democrats won 57-42, so New Jersey actually swung a little less than America as a whole.

NJ does feel like the sort of place where the 2020s GOP could make appreciable gains if educational polarization were to weaken; it's relatively high-density, which correlates with voters being afraid of crime, has a relatively machine-y Democratic party (this is qualitative) whose methods are to some degree stuck in the past, and has a white population relatively enriched for Italian- and Jewish-Americans, who are vaguely trending right relative to other white Americans. But 2024 seems early for that even if Trump is not nominated, and if he is eyeballing it based on 2022 we might even expect educational polarization to strengthen further.

No one and Kean is set to lose

As currently drawn Kean's seat voted Republican in 2018, and it isn't seeing huge demographic shifts. Absent horrible Republican screw-ups in the campaign, we can probably expect it to hold; I think 2018 is vaguely the high-water mark of the Trump-era Democratic coalition, which is where we still are.

[Tekken_Guy]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Chiesa is not a politician and is strongly associated with the poisonously unpopular Chris Christie in any case. Menendez seems like his hold on the Democrats is weaker than it was in 2018, with the emergence of an obvious successor in Mikie Sherrill and a Democratic party base that is higher-education and less likely to tolerate him.

In 2018, Bob Hugin ran 10 points ahead of House Republicans (Democrats won the generic ballot in NJ by 21 points, but Menendez won by just 11). If the Republican presidential candidate can hold the Democrat to single-digits in New Jersey and Menendez is renominated and the GOP practices good candidate discipline then the seat is winnable, but that's a big ask. In 2022, both parties contested every House seat in New Jersey and Democrats won 54-44, which seems good but sort of isn't -- in 2020, both parties also contested every seat and Democrats won 57-42, so New Jersey actually swung a little less than America as a whole.

NJ does feel like the sort of place where the 2020s GOP could make appreciable gains if educational polarization were to weaken; it's relatively high-density, which correlates with voters being afraid of crime, has a relatively machine-y Democratic party (this is qualitative) whose methods are to some degree stuck in the past, and has a white population relatively enriched for Italian- and Jewish-Americans, who are vaguely trending right relative to other white Americans. But 2024 seems early for that even if Trump is not nominated, and if he is eyeballing it based on 2022 we might even expect educational polarization to strengthen further.

No one and Kean is set to lose

As currently drawn Kean's seat voted Republican in 2018, and it isn't seeing huge demographic shifts. Absent horrible Republican screw-ups in the campaign, we can probably expect it to hold; I think 2018 is vaguely the high-water mark of the Trump-era Democratic coalition, which is where we still are.

Kean only won by a little over 2 points, and it's not hard to see Democrats get that final two points in a better year for them. And he actually did worse than he would have in 2020 under the new lines. He would have beaten Malinowski by 5 had the 2020s lines been in place then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 22 there wasn't Cory Booker or MENENDEZ on the ballot and with MENENDEZ I expect Kean to lose he beaten Kean in 2006

[Senator Incitatus]

The only minor chance of a Republican winning this seat is a competitive independent Democratic campaign; not impossible that window opens, but extremely unlikely that it even does. And even then it would be less than a 50% chance.

[MarkD]

How about former congressman Mike Ferguson? When he announced he was not going to seek reelection to the House 16 years ago, he said it was because he wanted to spend more time with his family. By now, his children are probably all grown up, so maybe he could be coaxed into re-entering politics.

[gerritcole]

unironically i think chris christie is the best the gqp can do here

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

unironically i think chris christie is the best the gqp can do here

Probably not wrong. Doesn't matter at all

[miles prower]

Does Signorello have an actual chance of beating Menendez in the primary?

[Senator Incitatus]

Does Signorello have an actual chance of beating Menendez in the primary?

It’s non-zero but probably less than 10%. It’s very hard to primary an incumbent Senator anywhere, but especially in NJ, given the cost of media and the county line factor. He’ll have none of the key organizational support, but then neither did literally-who Lisa McCormick. Menendez also (despite the personal disgust he deservedly receives) matches the views and needs of his constituents.

I see the ceiling for Signorello as catching fire and winning about everywhere but Hudson and Essex and still losing. This is also the slim, unlikely scenario in which Democratic revolt opens the door for a competitive general election.

[Suburbia]

How about former congressman Mike Ferguson? When he announced he was not going to seek reelection to the House 16 years ago, he said it was because he wanted to spend more time with his family. By now, his children are probably all grown up, so maybe he could be coaxed into re-entering politics.

Ferguson could make it competitive, he has the financial funding to do it, his family is rich....he comes from Central Jersey, a swing area, but Menendez is going to assault him on abortion, and New Jersey is a pro-choice state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MENENDEZ is not losing

[Atlas Force]

“tommalinowski4senate.com”

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1681650239630118914

[Roll Roons]

At least two credible Republicans are now taking a look at the race:
-Former appointed State Treasurer Andrew Eristoff (https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/former-n-j-state-treasurer-mulls-u-s-senate-run-against-menendez/) 
-Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-mendham-mayor-with-national-gop-ties-may-take-on-menendez-for-u-s-senate/).

Very much a long shot either way, but I think Eristoff especially could make things somewhat interesting against an indicted Menendez.

[Tekken_Guy]

At least two serious Republicans are now taking a look at the race: Former appointed State Treasurer Andrew Eristoff (https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/former-n-j-state-treasurer-mulls-u-s-senate-run-against-menendez/) and Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-mendham-mayor-with-national-gop-ties-may-take-on-menendez-for-u-s-senate/).

Safe D, with or without Menendez.

[Oryxslayer]

There has been talk of the DOJ possibility bringing a heafty corruption case against him for the past week, which is no doubt why a bunch of Republicans are "considering."

Of course thats par for the course for the NJ Dems. Given the present brand and situation of the national Dems though, they will almost certainly be immediate widespread calls and pressure to resign or retire if the charges are real and seem legitimate.  Which would be just a different bad situation for said considerers: either they face an unaccused Menendez, who will still underperform but will win a blue state, or they face a new candidate who also probably couldn't lose a blue state.

But if that happens,  at least will get a theoretically interesting Dem primary between the congressional class of 2018, Mendezes's son, a potential appointment I'd they happen to have ambition,  and whatever other machinists step forward.

[Tekken_Guy]

There has been talk of the DOJ possibility bringing a heafty corruption case against him for the past week, which is no doubt why a bunch of Republicans are "considering."

Of course thats par for the course for the NJ Dems. Given the present brand and situation of the national Dems though, they will almost certainly be immediate widespread calls and pressure to resign or retire if the charges are real and seem legitimate.  Which would be just a different bad situation for said considerers: either they face an unaccused Menendez, who will still underperform but will win a blue state, or they face a new candidate who also probably couldn't lose a blue state.

But if that happens,  at least will get a theoretically interesting Dem primary between the congressional class of 2018, Mendezes's son, a potential appointment I'd they happen to have ambition,  and whatever other machinists step forward.

I wonder if Menendez will agree to step down on the condition that his son gets the seat as opposed to someone like Sherrill or Gottheimer or Kim. Chuck Grassley has been adamant about keeping that seat warm for his grandson.

Also if he resigns early, does Murphy appoint one of the sitting congresspeople, opening up their seat for a special, or does he pick someone not currently in office, like Malinowski?

[Atlas Force]

Also if he resigns early, does Murphy appoint one of the sitting congresspeople, opening up their seat for a special, or does he pick someone not currently in office, like Malinowski?

Probably the latter

[Rjjr77]

Regardless of your political beliefs, the fact Menendez is still in the Senate is disturbing.

[Senator Incitatus]

I actually think Malinowski could probably primary him without much difficulty, but they probably have too many friends in common through foreign policy circles. Malinowski would have a miserable existence as Senator—hated by his own party and allies, on the backbench for one or two terms.

But if that happens,  at least will get a theoretically interesting Dem primary between the congressional class of 2018, Mendezes's son, a potential appointment I'd they happen to have ambition,  and whatever other machinists step forward.

New Jersey primaries are interesting in theory only, at least in the end. No more than three of these candidates would stay in, and at least one of them would be hopeless without real party support. Then it comes down to North Jersey county machines against South, and North inevitably wins as their voting power has grown. (The possibility of Andy Kim winning on a coalition between the traditional Norcross machine and Coughlin-McCabe in Middlesex is mildly interesting, though.)

[LabourJersey]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Chiesa is not a politician and is strongly associated with the poisonously unpopular Chris Christie in any case. Menendez seems like his hold on the Democrats is weaker than it was in 2018, with the emergence of an obvious successor in Mikie Sherrill and a Democratic party base that is higher-education and less likely to tolerate him.

In 2018, Bob Hugin ran 10 points ahead of House Republicans (Democrats won the generic ballot in NJ by 21 points, but Menendez won by just 11). If the Republican presidential candidate can hold the Democrat to single-digits in New Jersey and Menendez is renominated and the GOP practices good candidate discipline then the seat is winnable, but that's a big ask. In 2022, both parties contested every House seat in New Jersey and Democrats won 54-44, which seems good but sort of isn't -- in 2020, both parties also contested every seat and Democrats won 57-42, so New Jersey actually swung a little less than America as a whole.

NJ does feel like the sort of place where the 2020s GOP could make appreciable gains if educational polarization were to weaken; it's relatively high-density, which correlates with voters being afraid of crime, has a relatively machine-y Democratic party (this is qualitative) whose methods are to some degree stuck in the past, and has a white population relatively enriched for Italian- and Jewish-Americans, who are vaguely trending right relative to other white Americans. But 2024 seems early for that even if Trump is not nominated, and if he is eyeballing it based on 2022 we might even expect educational polarization to strengthen further.

No one and Kean is set to lose

As currently drawn Kean's seat voted Republican in 2018, and it isn't seeing huge demographic shifts. Absent horrible Republican screw-ups in the campaign, we can probably expect it to hold; I think 2018 is vaguely the high-water mark of the Trump-era Democratic coalition, which is where we still are.

Your analysis is fair, but I don't see educational polarization weakening until Trump is firmly out of the picture, and that may take some time.

Also there is a lot of urban/rural polarization that I don't see weakening, and if Democrats are the party of "high density places" then New Jersey will be quite firmly in the Democratic camp so long as that it is the case.

[MATTROSE94]

Mike Testa and Jeff Van Drew could easily win this seat, as Bob Menendez is a very weak incumbent and is extremely corrupt. I voted against Bob Menendez in 2012 and 2018 and will vote against him again in 2024 even against an election denier like Mike Testa or Jeff Van Drew.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-announces-bid-to-unseat-menendez/

Christine Serrano Glassner, mayor of Chris Christie's hometown of Mendham, is officially in. Never hurts to have a credible candidate.

[cg41386]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-announces-bid-to-unseat-menendez/

Christine Serrano Glassner, mayor of Chris Christie's hometown of Mendham, is officially in. Never hurts to have a credible candidate.

Christie is from Mendham Township, CSG is the mayor of Mendham borough, a separate municipality.

[kwabbit]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-announces-bid-to-unseat-menendez/

Christine Serrano Glassner, mayor of Chris Christie's hometown of Mendham, is officially in. Never hurts to have a credible candidate.

Christie is from Mendham Township, CSG is the mayor of Mendham borough, a separate municipality.

The situation seems pretty similar to what Princeton had prior to consolidation, where everyone considered themselves as from Princeton and only in specific cases differentiated between borough and township. In the case of Mendham, they do have a unified high school already.

[cg41386]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-announces-bid-to-unseat-menendez/

Christine Serrano Glassner, mayor of Chris Christie's hometown of Mendham, is officially in. Never hurts to have a credible candidate.

Christie is from Mendham Township, CSG is the mayor of Mendham borough, a separate municipality.

The situation seems pretty similar to what Princeton had prior to consolidation, where everyone considered themselves as from Princeton and only in specific cases differentiated between borough and township. In the case of Mendham, they do have a unified high school already.

My aunt and uncle used to live in the borough, but they sent my cousins to private schools.