NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wish we had more polls of this race (and wish the primary was sooner than June) but Tammy's campaign just gets worse and worse by the day

Murphy has bad optics and keeps shooting herself in the foot, and I feel increasingly confident Kim is favored.

Murphy's path definitely relies on low engagement voters voting the County line, but so far she isn't doing that great with the county lines and low engagement voters are by definition less likely to vote in a primary.

[brucejoel99]

🦀 Tammy Murphy drop-out time! 🦀

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1764434134506557612https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1764435095371317296

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/kacesq/status/1764454246647304633

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim does not need Bergen to win. In fact there’s a decent chance he wins the county in the actual primary even if Murphy has the line there. I expect mass defections in the northern part of the county.

Tammy Murphy, on the other hand, does. And she needs the line to not be struck down by the time the primary rolls around. If both of these things happen she’ll still have a chance. If either of these don’t she’s done.

[brucejoel99]

Andy Kim does not need Bergen to win. In fact there’s a decent chance he wins the county in the actual primary even if Murphy has the line there. I expect mass defections in the northern part of the county.

Tammy Murphy, on the other hand, does. And she needs the line to not be struck down by the time the primary rolls around. If both of these things happen she’ll still have a chance. If either of these don’t she’s done.

And, if Howie Klein's supposed "inside source" in Murphyworld is true & to be believed, she's just gonna straight-up end her campaign if she loses the line in Bergen rather than continue a clearly futile primary fight with Kim.

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim does not need Bergen to win. In fact there’s a decent chance he wins the county in the actual primary even if Murphy has the line there. I expect mass defections in the northern part of the county.

Tammy Murphy, on the other hand, does. And she needs the line to not be struck down by the time the primary rolls around. If both of these things happen she’ll still have a chance. If either of these don’t she’s done.

And, if Howie Klein's supposed "inside source" in Murphyworld is true & to be believed, she's just gonna straight-up end her campaign if she loses the line in Bergen rather than continue a clearly futile primary fight with Kim.

I’d assume she’ll also drop out if the line gets struck down by the judge.

[brucejoel99]

Andy Kim does not need Bergen to win. In fact there’s a decent chance he wins the county in the actual primary even if Murphy has the line there. I expect mass defections in the northern part of the county.

Tammy Murphy, on the other hand, does. And she needs the line to not be struck down by the time the primary rolls around. If both of these things happen she’ll still have a chance. If either of these don’t she’s done.

And, if Howie Klein's supposed "inside source" in Murphyworld is true & to be believed, she's just gonna straight-up end her campaign if she loses the line in Bergen rather than continue a clearly futile primary fight with Kim.

I’d assume she’ll also drop out if the line gets struck down by the judge.

Indeed. Granted, Kim's request for a preliminary injunction may not win over Judge Quraishi this year in light of the county clerks purporting an inability to reprogram their voting machines with as meaningful a change as abolishing the Line this close to the primary under the Purcell principle, but hopefully all of this can at least prod the judge to facilitate discovery in the main case to bring it to trial before next year's gubernatorial cycle.

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim does not need Bergen to win. In fact there’s a decent chance he wins the county in the actual primary even if Murphy has the line there. I expect mass defections in the northern part of the county.

Tammy Murphy, on the other hand, does. And she needs the line to not be struck down by the time the primary rolls around. If both of these things happen she’ll still have a chance. If either of these don’t she’s done.

And, if Howie Klein's supposed "inside source" in Murphyworld is true & to be believed, she's just gonna straight-up end her campaign if she loses the line in Bergen rather than continue a clearly futile primary fight with Kim.

I’d assume she’ll also drop out if the line gets struck down by the judge.

Indeed. Granted, Kim's request for a preliminary injunction may not win over Judge Quraishi this year in light of the county clerks purporting an inability to reprogram their voting machines with as meaningful a change as abolishing the Line this close to the primary under the Purcell principle, but hopefully all of this can at least prod the judge to facilitate discovery in the main case to bring it to trial before next year's gubernatorial cycle.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow or with the lawsuit I’ll be very surprised if Tammy Murphy wins this. The line can’t save an F-tier candidate like her against an A-tier one like Kim. Candidates who got the line in past statewide D primaries were either extremely popular figures who were unbeatable with or without the line (Booker) or people went into the primary with zero opposition (McGreevey, Corzine ‘05, Buono).

Meanwhile the last two notable primaries in the state showed . The last time there was an open primary, Phil Murphy got universal institutional support, every line in the state, and failed to crack 50%. And one year later Bob Menendez barely cracked 60% against a complete no-name. If that isn’t a sign the line is on track to fail I don’t know what is.

How would you rate her odds at this moment?

[brucejoel99]

Andy Kim does not need Bergen to win. In fact there’s a decent chance he wins the county in the actual primary even if Murphy has the line there. I expect mass defections in the northern part of the county.

Tammy Murphy, on the other hand, does. And she needs the line to not be struck down by the time the primary rolls around. If both of these things happen she’ll still have a chance. If either of these don’t she’s done.

And, if Howie Klein's supposed "inside source" in Murphyworld is true & to be believed, she's just gonna straight-up end her campaign if she loses the line in Bergen rather than continue a clearly futile primary fight with Kim.

I’d assume she’ll also drop out if the line gets struck down by the judge.

Indeed. Granted, Kim's request for a preliminary injunction may not win over Judge Quraishi this year in light of the county clerks purporting an inability to reprogram their voting machines with as meaningful a change as abolishing the Line this close to the primary under the Purcell principle, but hopefully all of this can at least prod the judge to facilitate discovery in the main case to bring it to trial before next year's gubernatorial cycle.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow or with the lawsuit I’ll be very surprised if Tammy Murphy wins this. The line can’t save an F-tier candidate like her against an A-tier one like Kim. Candidates who got the line in past statewide D primaries were either extremely popular figures who were unbeatable with or without the line (Booker) or people went into the primary with zero opposition (McGreevey, Corzine ‘05, Buono).

Meanwhile the last two notable primaries in the state showed . The last time there was an open primary, Phil Murphy got universal institutional support, every line in the state, and failed to crack 50%. And one year later Bob Menendez barely cracked 60% against a complete no-name. If that isn’t a sign the line is on track to fail I don’t know what is.

Hell, arguably, the last statewide primaries that the line mattered in were South Jersey's little-engine-that-could primary challenge from Rob Andrews vs. Lautenberg in 2008 & North Jersey's 2000 veto of Florio's attempted comeback by accepting Corzine's offer to purchase the Northern lines for $300M.

How would you rate her odds at this moment?

Too long to succeed against, even if I didn't think that Andy is gonna become the de-facto Senator-elect in Bergen later tonight.

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim does not need Bergen to win. In fact there’s a decent chance he wins the county in the actual primary even if Murphy has the line there. I expect mass defections in the northern part of the county.

Tammy Murphy, on the other hand, does. And she needs the line to not be struck down by the time the primary rolls around. If both of these things happen she’ll still have a chance. If either of these don’t she’s done.

And, if Howie Klein's supposed "inside source" in Murphyworld is true & to be believed, she's just gonna straight-up end her campaign if she loses the line in Bergen rather than continue a clearly futile primary fight with Kim.

I’d assume she’ll also drop out if the line gets struck down by the judge.

Indeed. Granted, Kim's request for a preliminary injunction may not win over Judge Quraishi this year in light of the county clerks purporting an inability to reprogram their voting machines with as meaningful a change as abolishing the Line this close to the primary under the Purcell principle, but hopefully all of this can at least prod the judge to facilitate discovery in the main case to bring it to trial before next year's gubernatorial cycle.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow or with the lawsuit I’ll be very surprised if Tammy Murphy wins this. The line can’t save an F-tier candidate like her against an A-tier one like Kim. Candidates who got the line in past statewide D primaries were either extremely popular figures who were unbeatable with or without the line (Booker) or people went into the primary with zero opposition (McGreevey, Corzine ‘05, Buono).

Meanwhile the last two notable primaries in the state showed . The last time there was an open primary, Phil Murphy got universal institutional support, every line in the state, and failed to crack 50%. And one year later Bob Menendez barely cracked 60% against a complete no-name. If that isn’t a sign the line is on track to fail I don’t know what is.

Hell, arguably, the last statewide primaries that the line mattered in were South Jersey's little-engine-that-could primary challenge from Rob Andrews vs. Lautenberg in 2008 & North Jersey's 2000 veto of Florio's attempted comeback by accepting Corzine's offer to purchase the Northern lines for $300M.

How would you rate her odds at this moment?

Too long to succeed against, even if I didn't think that Andy is gonna become the de-facto Senator-elect in Bergen later tonight.

Yeah my personal expectation is that Tammy will get clobbered everywhere but working-class Black and Hispanic areas in counties she has the line in.

[wbrocks67]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

Yeah it's a secret ballot

[brucejoel99]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

Yeah it's a secret ballot

Switching from machine to paper ballots for the first time, tho, speculation abound it's so the Bergen chair can intimidate silent Kim supporters into voting Tammy while branding anybody actively hiding their ballot a Kim voter since her supposed "loyalists" should have no problem publicly waving their ballot up in support of her if they "really" support her that much.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

Yeah it's a secret ballot

Switching from machine to paper ballots for the first time, tho, speculation abound it's so the Bergen chair can intimidate silent Kim supporters into voting Tammy while branding anybody actively hiding their ballot a Kim voter since her supposed "loyalists" should have no problem publicly waving their ballot up in support of her if they "really" support her that much.

I don’t see how this makes a difference.

[brucejoel99]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

Yeah it's a secret ballot

Switching from machine to paper ballots for the first time, tho, speculation abound it's so the Bergen chair can intimidate silent Kim supporters into voting Tammy while branding anybody actively hiding their ballot a Kim voter since her supposed "loyalists" should have no problem publicly waving their ballot up in support of her if they "really" support her that much.

I don’t see how this makes a difference.

https://twitter.com/AmyHiger/status/1764485837842944418https://twitter.com/AmyHiger/status/1764487194809360433

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

Yeah it's a secret ballot

Switching from machine to paper ballots for the first time, tho, speculation abound it's so the Bergen chair can intimidate silent Kim supporters into voting Tammy while branding anybody actively hiding their ballot a Kim voter since her supposed "loyalists" should have no problem publicly waving their ballot up in support of her if they "really" support her that much.

I don’t see how this makes a difference.

https://twitter.com/AmyHiger/status/1764485837842944418https://twitter.com/AmyHiger/status/1764487194809360433

I still think Andy has a decent chance at winning tonight, we’ll see.

[kwabbit]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

The Bergen machine is going really hard for Tammy. Every bigwig is pulling for her. It's kinda crazy how Tammy has close to zero support among the rank-and-file though. In places where Kim has the line it's not that hard to see him clearing 80% in the primary. I might be in a college-educated suburban bubble, but literally everyone I've talked to is completely on board for Kim.

[wbrocks67]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

The Bergen machine is going really hard for Tammy. Every bigwig is pulling for her. It's kinda crazy how Tammy has close to zero support among the rank-and-file though. In places where Kim has the line it's not that hard to see him clearing 80% in the primary. I might be in a college-educated suburban bubble, but literally everyone I've talked to is completely on board for Kim.

I mean this makes sense just in a common sense view - Kim is a representative who may not have 100% party ID across the state, but people at least have likely heard of him (at least most Dem primary voters likely have), while with Tammy she's just... the governor's wife. Like she really has nothing else to hang her hat on, and I think NJ Dems are fine with Phil, but it's not like they *love* him, so it's not like she's starting from this huge place. I would imagine most of the rank and file primary voters would likely vote for Kim. The fact that all Tammy has going for her are these conventions with 'committees' is telling.

Do we know what time the vote is today?

[kwabbit]

I don't understand why nepo candidates don't have a theory of the candidacy prepared before launching. The attacks are inevitable but so many are blindsided. Tammy should've had the first woman Senator + reproductive rights + medicare for all combination all ready to go. She had the first two to an extent but that was playing unexpected defense after assuming that she would be on cruise control. Joe Kennedy III also had this problem. So did Ted Kennedy challenging Carter, of course, and he is now viewed as a progressive visionary. During the campaign he couldn't articulate it though.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

The Bergen machine is going really hard for Tammy. Every bigwig is pulling for her. It's kinda crazy how Tammy has close to zero support among the rank-and-file though. In places where Kim has the line it's not that hard to see him clearing 80% in the primary. I might be in a college-educated suburban bubble, but literally everyone I've talked to is completely on board for Kim.

Which is a bad sign for the actual primary. Even if Tammy gets the line here Kim could actually win the county in June.

I mean this makes sense just in a common sense view - Kim is a representative who may not have 100% party ID across the state, but people at least have likely heard of him (at least most Dem primary voters likely have), while with Tammy she's just... the governor's wife. Like she really has nothing else to hang her hat on, and I think NJ Dems are fine with Phil, but it's not like they *love* him, so it's not like she's starting from this huge place. I would imagine most of the rank and file primary voters would likely vote for Kim. The fact that all Tammy has going for her are these conventions with 'committees' is telling.

Do we know what time the vote is today?

Yeah this is why I think Kim will end up winning decisively. The only peoples who would vote for her are her machine allies and low-info minorities in the urban areas of counties she has the line in. She’ll do well in Hackensack but horribly in Tenafly or Wyckoff. She’ll do well in Elizabeth but horribly in Summit or Westfield. She’ll do well in Paterson but horribly in Wayne or West Milford. She’ll do well in Newark but horribly in Livingston or Millburn.

Anyway, I think it starts around 5 in the evening.

[kwabbit]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

The Bergen machine is going really hard for Tammy. Every bigwig is pulling for her. It's kinda crazy how Tammy has close to zero support among the rank-and-file though. In places where Kim has the line it's not that hard to see him clearing 80% in the primary. I might be in a college-educated suburban bubble, but literally everyone I've talked to is completely on board for Kim.

I mean this makes sense just in a common sense view - Kim is a representative who may not have 100% party ID across the state, but people at least have likely heard of him (at least most Dem primary voters likely have), while with Tammy she's just... the governor's wife. Like she really has nothing else to hang her hat on, and I think NJ Dems are fine with Phil, but it's not like they *love* him, so it's not like she's starting from this huge place. I would imagine most of the rank and file primary voters would likely vote for Kim. The fact that all Tammy has going for her are these conventions with 'committees' is telling.

Do we know what time the vote is today?

Tammy is more impressive in her own right than most people are aware of. She was a successful businesswoman who has done meaningful activism recently. That fits the profile of many Senate candidates. The nepotism angle takes up all the oxygen though. I almost think she would be stronger if she wasn't Murphy's wife.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm curious if she'll actually win Bergen today. It's a secret ballot from what I can tell (?) so if that's the case, I imagine she's cooked.

The Bergen machine is going really hard for Tammy. Every bigwig is pulling for her. It's kinda crazy how Tammy has close to zero support among the rank-and-file though. In places where Kim has the line it's not that hard to see him clearing 80% in the primary. I might be in a college-educated suburban bubble, but literally everyone I've talked to is completely on board for Kim.

I mean this makes sense just in a common sense view - Kim is a representative who may not have 100% party ID across the state, but people at least have likely heard of him (at least most Dem primary voters likely have), while with Tammy she's just... the governor's wife. Like she really has nothing else to hang her hat on, and I think NJ Dems are fine with Phil, but it's not like they *love* him, so it's not like she's starting from this huge place. I would imagine most of the rank and file primary voters would likely vote for Kim. The fact that all Tammy has going for her are these conventions with 'committees' is telling.

Do we know what time the vote is today?

Tammy is more impressive in her own right than most people are aware of. She was a successful businesswoman who has done meaningful activism recently. That fits the profile of many Senate candidates. The nepotism angle takes up all the oxygen though. I almost think she would be stronger if she wasn't Murphy's wife.

Feels like all the party bosses wanted was “a woman”, and since Mikie Sherrill said no, she was the next best option.

[brucejoel99]

I don't understand why nepo candidates don't have a theory of the candidacy prepared before launching. The attacks are inevitable but so many are blindsided. Tammy should've had the first woman Senator + reproductive rights + medicare for all combination all ready to go. She had the first two to an extent but that was playing unexpected defense after assuming that she would be on cruise control. Joe Kennedy III also had this problem. So did Ted Kennedy challenging Carter, of course, and he is now viewed as a progressive visionary. During the campaign he couldn't articulate it though.

I don't think the Murphys really thought this through beyond "they own the bosses & the bosses own the Lines," just like JKIII didn't think his primary through beyond his last name.

[brucejoel99]

Bergen backroom cooking (read: ratfu*cking) time:
https://twitter.com/LizzieKFoley/status/1764702139488543093https://twitter.com/LizzieKFoley/status/1764707536257605635https://twitter.com/LizzieKFoley/status/1764710217017676286https://twitter.com/LizzieKFoley/status/1764712529773654386https://twitter.com/LizzieKFoley/status/1764715298819584457https://twitter.com/SenatorLorettaW/status/1764715874219393047

[Mr. Matt]

For those in the know in Bergen, would the paper ballots be a fill-in-the oval kind of ballot or does each delegate actually have to write in the candidate? In my time as a voting delegate to the Mercer County convention, when we've had paper ballots (pretty much to my remembrance a ranked choice presidential preference in 2020 and last year's 14th LD selection, other votes not unopposed were either with the previous actual election day machines or with a 3rd party website during our Zoom conventions) they were of the former.