Extremely hot take: Cuomo wins by more than Hochul because he runs a much more aggressive campaign than Hochul. People actually like some dude with "streetfighter mentality". I don't think he actually loses, especially if he fends off another primary challenge, potentially from James.
I think these are actually fair points. If Cuomo manages to get renominated, he might not be as unpopular as you would usually assume. Plus, Cuomo had more of a hold on Downstate and might have overperformed Hochul there. It would still have been his closest gubernatorial victory though.
But I agree that Cuomo would have fought extremely hard and potentially launched a massive smear campaign against Zeldin. He's an absolutely ruthless guy (which, in some cases, can be useful).