California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

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I have the perfect answer
Appoint Lee to the seat, and in return split off California's ten southern counties and admit them to the union as a new 51st state of South California, leaving Schiff and Porter to those new senate seats instead.

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New Poll: Schiff 15%, Porter 14%, Lee 6%.

47% Undecided

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1668251712887435264?s=46&t=XC6qQa4...

Lee being only 3% off from being the fourth-placed Democrat must be incredibly embarrassing for her.

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Lee being only 3% off from being the fourth-placed Democrat must be incredibly embarrassing for her.

This is a poll a full year out from the election where the top-placed candidate is at 15%. You really don't need to try to wring meaning out of this. It's okay to just let it be.

Seriously. Does anyone on this forum actually believe that it’ll be a close Porter vs Schiff runoff? And a poll with 47% undecided isn’t exactly meaningful.

This is not like the next presidential election, which more people would be paying attention to or aware of because it’s the presidential election, and also because the likely major party nominees are the incumbent President and the previous President (read: name recognition). The vast majority of voters aren’t paying attention to other races this far out.

I would hope that voters would have learnt enough from the Feinstein saga that electing someone who would be 84 at the end of their term is a bad idea, and that Lee therefore won't gain traction.

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If his goal is a placeholder, I don't see how it could be anyone besides Weber.

I have also seen the name of Bay Area Transit Board member Lateefah Simon mentioned as a possibility. Simon is currently the frontrunner for the CA-12 House seat held by Barbara Lee. It would be weird to have a sitting senator running for a house seat but there is nothing stopping her from from being a senate placeholder while continuing to run for the house. 

If you pick someone who isn't old like that, there's a chance she'd abandon her house run for a campaign for re-election as Senator though

Even if Newsom's intent were having her as a placeholder, that doesn't really mean anything if she has political ambitions

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Might be jumping the gun a bit but I'll say now that the race is probably over. Butler has had several high profile roles, is fairly young but not too young, and has no reason not to run for re-election.

And the campaigns of Schiff, Porter, and Lee are designed as campaigns for an empty senate seat. They're not remotely designed as campaigns for challenging an incumbent senator who's a well-qualified mainstream Democrat with plenty of experience in Californian politics and a lesbian black woman.

They'd all probably be best off dropping out and running for re-election to their House seats– maintaining Senate campaigns just wouldn't look good in the new circumstances

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Might be jumping the gun a bit but I'll say now that the race is probably over. Butler has had several high profile roles, is fairly young but not too young, and has no reason not to run for re-election.

And the campaigns of Schiff, Porter, and Lee are designed as campaigns for an empty senate seat. They're not remotely designed as campaigns for challenging an incumbent senator who's a well-qualified mainstream Democrat with plenty of experience in Californian politics and a lesbian black woman.

They'd all probably be best off dropping out and running for re-election to their House seats– maintaining Senate campaigns just wouldn't look good in the new circumstances

Schiff has £32 million in the bank and very high ID- why drop out when he’s virtually nailed into getting in the final two?

What's he even going to campaign on? "I'm a mainstream Democrat like the incumbent but I'm also a white man"?
Funding doesn't mean anything if there's no reason for voters to go for you– imo the final two will be Butler and a Republican

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This tells me that she is not running,  and Newsom picked a DC insider to do a DC job for a few months. This is because filing deadlines are fast approaching for the March primary.  She is a hypothetical candidate with no name recognition, already-uncovered potential election weaknesses, and all opponents have lots of money in a expensive state where millions of voters need to be in your corner to win. If she was running, it would have to start now, and hard. Delay in this situation is the same as no.

I don't think it's surprising that she hasn't decided for certain yet given it's a big decision to have to make within three days of first hearing that you were even considered for the position.

But as for the name recognition and funding points, it would be silly to dismiss the big advantage of being the incumbent Senator, which is instant name recognition even if she didn't have that a week ago. Not to mention that she is quite experienced in fundraising.

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What happens if Butler runs?

She probably won't make the top 2 if she does, but I do think the candidate who benefits the most from her running would be Porter.

When was the last time an incumbent senator failed to even make the top 2 in the primary?
Not sure why people think Butler's such an unusually poor candidate as to achieve such a feat.

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https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1709349781196157117

He gets single digits, comes in like fifth, and has an embarrassing end to his career? Not that interesting of a scenario.

No other relevant Republican is going to bother entering the race so he'd definitely get at least 20% in the primary and into the final two. Not that it matters of course given the chance of winning the runoff is nil.

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If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

No because Lee, Early are getting 6 and so will Butler she never responded to any attacks on her, Porter and Schiff primary


The polls would look something like this

16 porter
13 Schiff
6 Lee
6 Early
3 Butler

This isn't a poll


The NAACP is concerned with Allred, Blunt Rochester and Alsobrooks just like they focused on Ryan, Beasley and Barnes, but FL is always a wildcard and Rev Barber gives his donation to Act blue, what has Butler said to defend herself from right-wing attacks zilch


If Cardin tries to run for reelection he would lose to Alsobrooks


That's why I make 538 maps Poverty hit every state not just 303, users just copy one another and don't make their own maps

Is there literally any time in history that an incumbent senator has polled at 3% in the primary? I don't think so and I'm not sure what makes you think Butler is such a uniquely bad senator that it will happen now.

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Another interview with Laphonza Butler where she's hinting at a run

https://archive.ph/UizlG

Emma Hinchliffe: So, is this a temporary job for you?
Laphonza Butler: It is our early job for me. It is day six. I literally went through orientation, which is usually three days in like four hours. And so, I will say it’s an early job for me. But my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.

Commitment to a life dedicated to service doesn't sound like she's just going to stand down from the Senate.

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#coldtakesexposed

Actually quite surprised by this news. I suppose she's probably wanting to avoid making enemies among those who are invested in the candidacies of the other people vying for the senate seat. Not sure what else her intentions would be though- gubernatorial run in 2026?