California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Canis]

I've heard rumblings about London Breed and Katie Porter. I think the most likely DvD race is Breed vs Porter because Porter is popular and charismatic and could probably pull enough votes in socal to make the general. Schiff could give it a go too but I think he wants to stay in the house and go for State AG or something someday.

[Canis]

Porter just had a big scandal regarding her treatment of staff, not sure she runs for senate at this point.  The main two candidates im likely to support at this point are either Khanna or Barbra Lee, though ill wait to see who announces and what their platform is before I make any commitments.

[Canis]

Rumor that former congressman Harley Rouda will make an announcement soon as well:

https://twitter.com/olivia_beavers/status/1612859264044863490

I heard last year from a Porter staffer that Rouda didn't run against Porter in exchange for her not stepping in the primary while she runs for Senate so I expect Rouda to run and be the D nominee in her district.


Im very lukewarm on Porter after the staffer scandal
https://twitter.com/DWS________/status/1608512680985239552?t=fipXPRi6i01Q7MEXWCx...
and even without she votes pretty moderately in the house, she's better than Schiff and if it comes down to those 2 I'm behind her, but I'd prefer someone more progressive like Barbra Lee and Ro Khanna.

[Canis]

Barbara Lee is IN:
https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1613230837033492487

Ro also retweeted this last night which seems to indicate he won't run if Barbara Lee does. https://twitter.com/dylanewells/status/1612929959307214850

[Canis]

Where is the proof that Porter is actually terrible to her staff? The entire hubbub about those texts seemed like there was a lot of missing context and the full story wasn't really put forth (shockingly!)

Yeah, I’m wondering if this is just this one incident or if it is part of a bigger, concerning pattern.

I think that Lee is just too old, especially when we’re talking about replacing the oldest Dem in the senate. Like, I think she could serve through 2030 just fine, but I’d wonder about after that should she win and run for re-election.

Her office has a very high turnover rate, if you look at the thread I linked earlier on there are several other complaints about abusive behavior to her staff, a lot of them are anonymous and hard to verify but the sheer number of them doesn't paint a good picture,
https://twitter.com/DWS________/status/1608683804394393603

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1613532512441233410
Warren backs Porter, which was to be expected but still thats a decent endorsement to get this early on

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/DWS________/status/1613748466701983745?t=gx8CmHmngPdcC6QhAyy...
Porter's response

[Canis]

I'm not sure how this obsession over "Who's more progressive/Moderate" will work for anyone considering there's like a 1% difference between how Porter/Lee/Schiff/Khanna vote

Porter votes more conservative than 95% of Democrats in Congress
https://voteview.com/person/21954/katie-porter

Adam Schiff votes more conservative than 59% Of Democrats in Congress
https://voteview.com/person/20104/adam-schiff

Ro Khanna votes more liberal than 92% of democrats in congress
https://voteview.com/person/21728/rohit-khanna

Barbra Lee votes more liberal than 99% of Democrats in Congress
https://voteview.com/person/29778/barbara-lee

Their is clearly a significant difference between Khanna, Lee and Porter and Schiff

[Canis]

Does Maebe A. Girl win Schiff's old seat? Would really like to see her in Congress.

I would really hope so, the race looks really crowded with Mike Feuer, Laura Friedman and others getting ready to hop in, it should be noted the district is very progressive though I think Maebe can make the GE again this time too but im not sure she pulls it off in the end will definitely be a race to watch.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AmarShergillCA/status/1622266539855724544
The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

[Canis]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

The progressive caucus is not just a handful of activists we have thousands of delegates elected to the California Democratic party and have major pull and influence when it comes to who the party endorses. If one of the candidates decided to stay in after the progressive caucus has decided who to coalesce around that candidate would lose all support from the caucus's members and their campaigns grassroots and institutional support would dry up which would be pretty bad for said candidate who would also likely be on shaky ground in the first place if the caucus had decided to coalse around someone else.

[Canis]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

The progressive caucus is not just a handful of activists we have thousands of delegates elected to the California Democratic party and have major pull and influence when it comes to who the party endorses. If one of the candidates decided to stay in after the progressive caucus has decided who to coalesce around that candidate would lose all support from the caucus's members and their campaigns grassroots and institutional support would dry up which would be pretty bad for said candidate who would also likely be on shaky ground in the first place if the caucus had decided to coalse around someone else.

But does the Party endorsement matter in California (honest question)?  In my experience party endorsements are nice but really don't have  much of an effect in most states.

They have an impact but aren't the deciding factors in most elections. KDL getting the CDPs endorsement was huge for his campaign in 2018 and was a big reason he made the GE. But they do have a big impact on close primary races which this election probably will be.

[Canis]

Bass endorsed Barbara Lee. Pretty big endorsement imo.

https://twitter.com/KarenBassLA/status/1631045560714289153
Yup Lee having the backing of the mayor of LA and SF is a really big deal

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AmarShergillCA/status/1633609589739630592

[Canis]

If the general is Lee vs Schiff (as is looking likely at the moment) then the general is likely Lee.

Right now, Schiff vs Porter looks far more likely

Polls this far are meaningless. Four years ago, based on polls, you could say that Matt Lieberman was likely to make the Georgia runoff as the Democrat even though he had no institutional support and no campaign. That would be stupid.

Right now, we can look at all the forces that Barbara Lee has marshaled behind her and say that she's a good bet to make the general election, regardless of what a small amount of polling a year and a half might suggest.

Yeah Porter has higher name rec rn and that's why she's polling well. Lees gotten far more endorsements and her campaign is playing the inside politicking game very well meeting with progressives and activists from across the state , haven't seen the same effort from Porter yet. Lee is also a much more personable candidate everyone I know whose met her likes her while Porter comes across as stiff and cold. Schiff is also running a very strong campaign and is doing a good job of courting delegate support.  I think he definitely secures a spot in the general.

The Working Families party held a town hall  with Lee and Porter this week here's the link if anyone wants to watch it, they were pretty much in alignment on all the issues but Lee was much more engaging and charismatic then Porter. Starts around the 9 minute mark
https://www.youtube.com/live/3wXqUOKy4K8?feature=share

[Canis]

Is Eric Early the top Republican?

Early only did so well in that poll because he was the only Republican candidate included. Right now there are 6 declared candidates including Early. I expect Early to do the best of the declared candidates and likely anyone else that gets in unless there is a former house or state rep. Early ran for statewide office twice now and gotten 15% of the vote both times so he will have the name rec. If Larry Elder endorses him again it'll help him as well in consolidating the R vote. As of right now Bradley and Early are the two Rs id expect to do the best.

[Canis]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

[Canis]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Is he wrong though?

It's unclear, she'd be 83 as the end of her first term but older senators have run for reelection. The main issue with the argument is it's pretty weak to just call your opponent old with no argument for why your candidate is better besides age. Barbra Lee is more progressive then Porter on some pretty important issues like israel and the salt tax  and more accomplished when you compare there careers overall it's pretty clear.

It's interesting--I wonder if Porter would be in a much better place in this race if the third candidate was a Bay Area machine candidate without the leftist bonafides which Lee has. If you're a died-in-the-wool progressive or socialist it's hard to beat Lee's record; I suspect Porter would be getting a lot more buzz from the leftwing online.

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

My understanding is that, at least according to CA people, it cuts the other way--the state is so big and demanding politically that the only people with enough resources are the leaders of political machines.

Of course, there hasn't really been a big and well-funded campaign by a non-establishment statewide Democrat (to my knowledge), so both Schiff and Porter are interesting test cases in this respect.

   

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

[Canis]

Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

But that's the thing, Porter has a huge online fundraising network, she really does not need to worry about local officials throwing her a $1,000 a plate fundraisers. Same with Schiff.  Honestly the reason I think Lee is likely to finish behind Schiff and Porter in the primary is I don't think she can fundraise with them.

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

[Canis]

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

Rs aren't gonna invest in this race there's already 6 republican candidates in and that will likely grow a bit. Rs actually prefer a democrat vs democrat runoff so d money is wasted there instead of the competitive house seats. Not saying a republican making the runoff is impossible, but I wouldn't hedge my bets on it.

[Canis]

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

Rs aren't gonna invest in this race there's already 6 republican candidates in and that will likely grow a bit. Rs actually prefer a democrat vs democrat runoff so d money is wasted there instead of the competitive house seats. Not saying a republican making the runoff is impossible, but I wouldn't hedge my bets on it.

The thing is, a D v D race in California arguably could cost Republicans House seats there. They should be trying to get one of their candidates into the runoff, because that would help them in the House races more than it would hurt them.

It won't though, it would just be a waste of resources and take funds from house and state leg candidates. Rs are gonna turnout for the GOP nominee for president no matter what. There is not a republican who won't vote because they don't have a candidate for president. If this was an off year id agree with you but this just isn't the case during a presidential year.

[Canis]

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

I think the chances of this are extremely slim. Since the top-two system was implemented, only once has there been a gubernatorial or senatorial election with multiple serious Democratic candidates where the general election did not involve two Democrats: that was the 2018 gubernatorial election, where John Cox poured a lot of money into his campaign and was aided by a Newsom campaign anxious to keep Antonio Villaraigosa out of the general election.

It should be obvious that there will be no similar Republican candidate this time. If a deep-pocketed Republican were to try to launch a longshot bid for statewide office, the obvious thing to do would be to try to seek the governorship in 2026. In any case, there's no indication that any such Republican will try to set money on fire in that way. The Republican vote in California should do what it always does in these situations, which is splinter a hundred different ways among a hundred also-ran candidates, none of whom are running real campaigns.

But didn't all D vs D runoffs only include two serious Democrats? Harris and Sanchez in 2016. Feinstein and de Leon in 2018. Superintendent of Public Instruction 2018 with Thurmond and Tuck.

LG  2018 had 3 serious Dems and a serious lefty independent candidate. Also your wrong about superintendent 2018 there were 3 Dems running and tuck despite running as a Dem was the defacto republican and had support from the state party who didn't field a candidate because they knew they had a better chance backing a conservative pro charter Dem then they would have if they ran there own candidate which the 2022 results certainly proved correct.

[Canis]

Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

But that's the thing, Porter has a huge online fundraising network, she really does not need to worry about local officials throwing her a $1,000 a plate fundraisers. Same with Schiff.  Honestly the reason I think Lee is likely to finish behind Schiff and Porter in the primary is I don't think she can fundraise with them.

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

I think I agree that people are maybe discounting Porter a little too heavily, but I really have no idea how she’s gonna appeal to nonwhite voters and haven’t got a good answer on that yet. Black donors and interest groups are gonna back Lee, and honestly labor is very likely too as well given the subtle nuances between her and Porter and her longer record (and that unions are filled with nonwhite democrat voters in California).

My question the whole time is who specifically is going to back Katie? And I still haven’t heard much of an answer to that. My bougie aunts in Irvine and Marin, sure. But wealthy white ladies have a lot less punch than they used to, and may end up voting for Lee if she becomes the cool and trendy candidate anyway.

Also, we just had the state convention by my house and it was a Barbara Lee love fest. The activist base is behind her. The establishment is behind Schiff. So, I’m looking out for actually strategy from the Porter campaign because they have a lot tougher task than it appears. For example, how is she gonna answer inevitable questions about why she and not a Black lady should be elected given their similar records? And she can’t go all “she’s old” because that never plays well in a primary full of elderly voters.

I was there and your description of it was pretty accurate like I said earlier in the thread

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted literally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one.

Garveys is a big name, but he's faded from relevance for quite a while. He may have enough money to make it to the General, it'll be interesting to see what kind of campaign he runs, he may end up being California's, Hershel Walker.  But he may also end up dividing the Republican vote between him and early and the other minor candidates who hop in if he fails to get the state party to back him. I think if he wants to make the general though he'll have to burn a significant amount of his own money and its just a question of if he'd wanna do that. If he does make the general hed certainly be crushed by Porter Lee or Schiff no question. 

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/BarbaraLeeForCA/status/1704269965871005871?s=20

Looks like Lee is changing strategies and going aggressively after the progressive/Bernie 2020 vote. Honestly a good change of pace for her. She's seeking my dem clubs endorsement that started as a wing of the Sanders 2020 campaign next month and a bunch of other progressive groups and organizations. Which is honestly a pretty good strategy Sanders got 2 million votes here last go around if she can win the majority of his voters and win the black vote and do well in the Bay around her district that's a really solid amount of support and probably enough to get her into the general but it's gonna take a lot of work and outreach to get them to all turn out for her shes gotta just focus on building a base of support and turning them out right now by building name ID.

[Canis]

I said it a couple months ago, and I'll say it again, a debate would be immensely useful in this situation and it's a shame there isn't going to be one, and there hasn't even been much pressure to hold one. Does it have to do with the jungle primary or something? I know even De Leon and Feinstein had one debate afaik.

There probably will be a candidate forum at some point closer to the election. WFP held a town hall with Lee and Porter a few months ago. During the 2018 gov race telemundo held a debate with Newsom, Villaraigosa, Eastin, Chiang, Allen and Cox I think theyred be nothing wrong with holding a
 dem candidate forum with just Lee Porter and Schiff but if they do wanna include the republicans they can have Early Bradley and Garvey if he hops in as well.