California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Landslide Lyndon]

The fallout from this primary has been so aggravating. Porter's rhetoric, the online left's insistence that Schiff is some centrist, just the general childish behavior of all involved...makes me really glad I don't live in CA.

That's not surprising. These bozos also think that Kamala Harris is centrist.

As for Porter, her behaviour just confirms the reports about her churlish character and why her office had the second highest turnover in congress.

[wbrocks67]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1765546277071429744?s=20

Disappointing, though I assume they just wait for all votes to be counted. As embarrassing as it is the counting takes so long.

That said, they deserved to lose at this stage. We certainly don't need to establish the Trump precedent in the Dem party that we no longer accept defeats anymore. That's just a huge middle finger to the voters of the winning candidate.

Yeah I probably would've voted for Porter as noted but her post-election behavior is absurd and she really deserved to lose. And I totally soured on Lee after that ridiculous "Newsom MUST appoint this one particular black woman or he's a terrible sexist/racist!" campaign.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL, the Minnesota Secretary of State even called her out:

https://twitter.com/MNSteveSimon/status/1765798706962399581

Thank you Schiff voters for your prescience!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

That's the fault of the stupid California voting system. As long as that's in place candidates need to do what's best strategically under that system.

If some football coach doesn't like an NFL rule, that doesn't mean he can just have his team ignore it and instead play how he'd prefer the rules be until that rule is changed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

That's the fault of the stupid California voting system. As long as that's in place candidates need to do what's best strategically under that system.

If some football coach doesn't like an NFL rule, that doesn't mean he can just have his team ignore it and instead play how he'd prefer the rules be until that rule is changed.

I don't give a sh*t about the NFL and I don't think anyone else in this thread does.

Of course the rules are the rules and I never said Schiff broke them. It's still playing dirty. If you don't see it you're just being obtuse.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

That's the fault of the stupid California voting system. As long as that's in place candidates need to do what's best strategically under that system.

If some football coach doesn't like an NFL rule, that doesn't mean he can just have his team ignore it and instead play how he'd prefer the rules be until that rule is changed.

I don't give a sh*t about the NFL and I don't think anyone else in this thread does.

Of course the rules are the rules and I never said Schiff broke them. It's still playing dirty. If you don't see it you're just being obtuse.

It's called an analogy.

I just think what Porter is doing now is far worse and way more childish than anything Schiff did. She's also getting called out by Democrats everywhere (see my SoS above), and there seems to be a bit of a meme developing comparing her to some obviously drunk woman at a traffic stop.

...and she seems to be doubling down which makes her look even worse:
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765621658382168271

[Agafin]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

That's the fault of the stupid California voting system. As long as that's in place candidates need to do what's best strategically under that system.

If some football coach doesn't like an NFL rule, that doesn't mean he can just have his team ignore it and instead play how he'd prefer the rules be until that rule is changed.

I don't give a sh*t about the NFL and I don't think anyone else in this thread does.

Of course the rules are the rules and I never said Schiff broke them. It's still playing dirty. If you don't see it you're just being obtuse.

I'm sorry but given that Porter essentially tried to use the same strategy (boosting the republican Eric Early), she and and her supporters (of which I assume you are or used to be one) have no leg to stand on. It's not dirty, it's campaigning and she just so happens to be bad at it. She lost fair and square.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I HATE Adam Schiff, but ending that woman's career is the one good thing he's done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

That's the fault of the stupid California voting system. As long as that's in place candidates need to do what's best strategically under that system.

If some football coach doesn't like an NFL rule, that doesn't mean he can just have his team ignore it and instead play how he'd prefer the rules be until that rule is changed.

I don't give a sh*t about the NFL and I don't think anyone else in this thread does.

Of course the rules are the rules and I never said Schiff broke them. It's still playing dirty. If you don't see it you're just being obtuse.

It's called an analogy.

I just think what Porter is doing now is far worse and way more childish than anything Schiff did. She's also getting called out by Democrats everywhere (see my SoS above), and there seems to be a bit of a meme developing comparing her to some obviously drunk woman at a traffic stop.

...and she seems to be doubling down which makes her look even worse:
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765621658382168271

Yes, this response by Porter is what I was criticizing, if you're able to read my post beyond an out-of-context snippet. Doesn't take away the fact that Schiff isn't 100% blameless here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Porter can't stand the heat then she should get out of the kitchen. Schiff boosted Garvey because in the first place he took a small but significant lead, despite the fact that she had the money and enthusiasm to match his advantages.

And of course it goes without saying that for Democrats in general it's a good thing that Garvey advanced and they won't be wasting huge amounts of money in an unnecessary civil war for a safe seat. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Porter can't stand the heat then she should get out of the kitchen. Schiff boosted Garvey because in the first place he took a small but significant lead, despite the fact that she had the money and enthusiasm to match his advantages.

And of course it goes without saying that for Democrats in general it's a good thing that Garvey advanced and they won't be wasting huge amounts of money in an unnecessary civil war for a safe seat. 

True, but there's a potential downside in that a high-profile D-vs-D Senate race might have brought more Democrats out to vote in November, helping them in the close House races.  That's obviously more hypothetical than the money issue, though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Porter can't stand the heat then she should get out of the kitchen. Schiff boosted Garvey because in the first place he took a small but significant lead, despite the fact that she had the money and enthusiasm to match his advantages.

And of course it goes without saying that for Democrats in general it's a good thing that Garvey advanced and they won't be wasting huge amounts of money in an unnecessary civil war for a safe seat. 

True, but there's a potential downside in that a high-profile D-vs-D Senate race might have brought more Democrats out to vote in November, helping them in the close House races.  That's obviously more hypothetical than the money issue, though.

If a presidential race with Trump as the opponent and the future of democracy at stake doesn't bring to the polls every single Democrat then I doubt that a Schiff vs Porter matchup would.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Porter can't stand the heat then she should get out of the kitchen. Schiff boosted Garvey because in the first place he took a small but significant lead, despite the fact that she had the money and enthusiasm to match his advantages.

And of course it goes without saying that for Democrats in general it's a good thing that Garvey advanced and they won't be wasting huge amounts of money in an unnecessary civil war for a safe seat. 

True, but there's a potential downside in that a high-profile D-vs-D Senate race might have brought more Democrats out to vote in November, helping them in the close House races.  That's obviously more hypothetical than the money issue, though.

If a presidential race with Trump as the opponent and the future of democracy at stake doesn't bring to the polls every single Democrat then I doubt that a Schiff vs Porter matchup would.

If California was a swing state at the presidential level, I would agree with that.  But every California voter knows the state's electoral votes will go to the Democrat; it's just as much a foregone conclusion (if not even more so) than the Senate race is.

[President Johnson]

The recent attitude by Porter and Lee and some of their supporters is testimony that they lack some maturity, in my honest opinion. And it shows that Schiff fully deserved to win. I'm sure he would gracefully have conceded at this point, had he come in third or fourth.

[Annatar]

Question is whether Garvey can exceed Dahle's performance in 2022, he lost by 18.4%. Something like a 59-41 outcome would be a good showing by Garvey.

[xavier110]

I agree that Porter’s (somewhat random, given she was polling terribly and should have seen this coming a mile away?) lashing out post-primary corroborates those ghastly accounts and whispers from former coworkers and staffers who suggested she was a loathsome, bitter person. Good riddance!

Honestly, never doubt ex-staffer gossip. It’s rarely ever that wrong, from my experience.

[DrScholl]

I had a huge problem with Schiff boosting Garvey because had a Republican been locked out of the top two it could have possible lowered GOP turnout down ballot and made it easier to win House seats. Some things are more important than having an easy time winning your own race. Schiff would have still be favored against another Democrat.

[Tekken_Guy]

I had a huge problem with Schiff boosting Garvey because had a Republican been locked out of the top two it could have possible lowered GOP turnout down ballot and made it easier to win House seats. Some things are more important than having an easy time winning your own race. Schiff would have still be favored against another Democrat.

The presidential race is at the top of the ticket and Republicans were going to turn out for Trump regardless.

Nobody is showing up for Garvey that would have stayed home otherwise.

[Roll Roons]

Also a Schiff-Porter general would have siphoned away tens of millions of dollars that could go to Tester, Brown, Gallego, Rosen, etc.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

I agree - it's a penny-wise, pound-foolish sort of move that hurts the left as a whole.

1) backstabbing people on your side and boosting your opponents (especially when those opponents are as vile as the modern GOP) for personal advantage is extremely cynical, destroys trust in the party and the values it claims to represent.

2) doing so in collusion (even if that collusion is never explicit) with a pack of effing-crypto billionaires is even worse

3) this has turned from an in-house primary into a debacle that has handed Donald Trump a full clip of ammunition for his attempts to overturn any Democratic victory this fall. Between Porter's own "billionaires rigged the election" rhetoric, and the various Democratic establishment variations of "it was technically legal" this was pretty much the worst possible precedent to set in the run-up to November

Party loyalists may not see what the big deal is, but I expect this is going to leave a legacy of long-lasting disgust in the minds of attentive voters who care about principles. (I've no idea if that group is at all numerically significant. I hope so.)

Speaking for myself I've been skeptical about the CA Democratic party, but this tells me I will never vote for Schiff for higher office - he'd obviously trade damned near anything for personal advancement, and not even bother to try and pretend doing so was wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Question is whether Garvey can exceed Dahle's performance in 2022, he lost by 18.4%. Something like a 59-41 outcome would be a good showing by Garvey.

Schiff will win 52/45 don't let Garvey vote fool you it was held down Schiff with split vote with Porter

[henster]

I thought Porter had a decent chance of pivoting to Governor in 2026 but she is burning what few bridges she had left. She still has her fans and big grassroots fundraising but you can't succeed in any major office without any allies.