California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[I’m not Stu]

A D vs D race comes down to region. Assuming that Lee advanced against either another Democrat her strategy would be to run up good numbers in the Bay Area and not get completely swamped in SoCal.

How well would Lee do in SoCal?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I said it a couple months ago, and I'll say it again, a debate would be immensely useful in this situation and it's a shame there isn't going to be one, and there hasn't even been much pressure to hold one. Does it have to do with the jungle primary or something? I know even De Leon and Feinstein had one debate afaik.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I said it a couple months ago, and I'll say it again, a debate would be immensely useful in this situation and it's a shame there isn't going to be one, and there hasn't even been much pressure to hold one. Does it have to do with the jungle primary or something? I know even De Leon and Feinstein had one debate afaik.

Yeah, I imagine a debate in a jungle primary would be very hard to pull off. You can't really exclude the Republicans.

[I’m not Stu]

At least 20 candidates will run in the primary. It would be very difficult to have a debate. How well would Lee do in SoCal against Schiff or Porter?

[Canis]

I said it a couple months ago, and I'll say it again, a debate would be immensely useful in this situation and it's a shame there isn't going to be one, and there hasn't even been much pressure to hold one. Does it have to do with the jungle primary or something? I know even De Leon and Feinstein had one debate afaik.

There probably will be a candidate forum at some point closer to the election. WFP held a town hall with Lee and Porter a few months ago. During the 2018 gov race telemundo held a debate with Newsom, Villaraigosa, Eastin, Chiang, Allen and Cox I think theyred be nothing wrong with holding a
 dem candidate forum with just Lee Porter and Schiff but if they do wanna include the republicans they can have Early Bradley and Garvey if he hops in as well.

[I’m not Stu]

How would Lee do in a D vs D race? Are Porter and Schiff really DINOS?

Neither one is a DINO or close. Schiff is pretty much a lockstep Biden Democrat - you'd struggle to find any issue where he's out of the party orthodoxy, although most people would define him as somewhat moderate especially on foreign policy. Porter usually aligns herself with Elizabeth Warren pretty heavily, but outside her stances on big business her votes trend more towards the Dem mainstream.

It's that the de Leon 2018-Lee 2024 voters call them DINOs. If Schiff or Porter wins, Ro Khanna will eventually launch a primary challenge.

[Canis]

How would Lee do in a D vs D race? Are Porter and Schiff really DINOS?

Neither one is a DINO or close. Schiff is pretty much a lockstep Biden Democrat - you'd struggle to find any issue where he's out of the party orthodoxy, although most people would define him as somewhat moderate especially on foreign policy. Porter usually aligns herself with Elizabeth Warren pretty heavily, but outside her stances on big business her votes trend more towards the Dem mainstream.

It's that the de Leon 2018-Lee 2024 voters call them DINOs. If Schiff or Porter wins, Ro Khanna will eventually launch a primary challenge.

huh what? not a single Lee supporter I know has called Schiff or Porter DINOS. Schiff takes a ton of corporate pac money but hes not a DINO just a mainstream establishment Democrat. Porter is also far from being a DINO. The vast majority of elected dems take corporate pac money in order to be a DINO you have to be exceptionally moderate or conservative, like Joe Manchin or Dan Lipinski.  Theres no world in which Ro Khanna would attempt to primary either Porter or Schiff hes got his eyes on a statewide run most likely in 2026 for one of the row offices or maybe Governor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How would Lee do in a D vs D race? Are Porter and Schiff really DINOS?

Neither one is a DINO or close. Schiff is pretty much a lockstep Biden Democrat - you'd struggle to find any issue where he's out of the party orthodoxy, although most people would define him as somewhat moderate especially on foreign policy. Porter usually aligns herself with Elizabeth Warren pretty heavily, but outside her stances on big business her votes trend more towards the Dem mainstream.

It's that the de Leon 2018-Lee 2024 voters call them DINOs. If Schiff or Porter wins, Ro Khanna will eventually launch a primary challenge.

huh what? not a single Lee supporter I know has called Schiff or Porter DINOS. Schiff takes a ton of corporate pac money and he was instrumental in killing the public option but hes not a DINO just a mainstream establishment Democrat. Porter is also far from being a DINO. The vast majority of elected dems take corporate pac money in order to be a DINO you have to be exceptionally moderate or conservative, like Joe Manchin or Dan Lipinski.  Theres no world in which Ro Khanna would attempt to primary either Porter or Schiff hes got his eyes on a statewide run most likely in 2026 for one of the row offices or maybe Governor.

Joe Lieberman killed the public option.  Adam Schiff had nothing to do with it.

[I’m not Stu]

How would Lee do in a D vs D race? Are Porter and Schiff really DINOS?

Neither one is a DINO or close. Schiff is pretty much a lockstep Biden Democrat - you'd struggle to find any issue where he's out of the party orthodoxy, although most people would define him as somewhat moderate especially on foreign policy. Porter usually aligns herself with Elizabeth Warren pretty heavily, but outside her stances on big business her votes trend more towards the Dem mainstream.

It's that the de Leon 2018-Lee 2024 voters call them DINOs. If Schiff or Porter wins, Ro Khanna will eventually launch a primary challenge.

huh what? not a single Lee supporter I know has called Schiff or Porter DINOS. Schiff takes a ton of corporate pac money and he was instrumental in killing the public option but hes not a DINO just a mainstream establishment Democrat. Porter is also far from being a DINO. The vast majority of elected dems take corporate pac money in order to be a DINO you have to be exceptionally moderate or conservative, like Joe Manchin or Dan Lipinski.  Theres no world in which Ro Khanna would attempt to primary either Porter or Schiff hes got his eyes on a statewide run most likely in 2026 for one of the row offices or maybe Governor.

Joe Lieberman killed the public option.  Adam Schiff had nothing to do with it.

Correct.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I disagree with you so strongly right now. It is exactly like New York. Real estate interests pick nominees and inundate their campaigns with money. Pelosi and Feinstein are literally married into the class that we are talking about. The moderates in California are economically right-wing and Gavin Newsom has backed them up in every decision that matters - offshore drilling, nuclear power, NIMBYism, you name it. Gavin Newsom is basically Andrew Cuomo minus the creepiness.

I love what you have to say normally but this is wrong. If establishment and progressive aren't antonyms then why did Hillary Clinton wade into an LA city council race?

I agree that Gavin Newsom is like Andrew Cuomo in many ways, but whereas Cuomo's instinct was try to destroy left-wing activists Newsom's instinct is to co-opt them. He's happy to pal around with Ro Khanna, for instance, because Khanna has been on his team ever since his first congressional campaign and because having him around gives Newsom credibility with Bernie Sanders people. As I've said, Newsom wants to be all things to all people. In this regard the contemporary politician I would compare him to is Justin Trudeau. I'm not really talking about Newsom's policy positions here: I'm talking about how he wants to be seen, and he definitely does not want to be seen as being in opposition to the left side of the party.

I've written before about the low level of ideological distinction between Democrats in partisan elections in California. There are plenty of elections between two Democrats, but how many elections are there between a left-wing Democrat and a right-wing Democrat where both candidates campaign on an ideological basis? Local elections obviously do have more ideological distinctions, but I don't recall seeing Gavin Newsom publicly involve himself in local elections since going to Sacramento. Hillary Clinton might have waded into a city council race in Los Angeles, but she's not the California Democratic Party. She is, quite literally, a New York politician.

I agree with Cody in being confused about the identification of Newsom with NIMBYs. On the issue of housing, the California government under Newsom has not gone as far as I would like, but it has gone a lot farther than I expected. I also recall that in the only recent election I can remember where there were two Democrats on the ballot and their differing positions on housing were the primary issue (the state senatorial election in San Francisco between Scott Wiener and Jackie Fielder in 2020), the candidate who used socialist iconography was not the YIMBY in the race.

Yes, you’d expect a lack of ideological distinction within a de facto one-party system (at least at the statewide level, which is the relevant level of politics here). In a situation like that personal ties to the party machine and, since this is the contemporary Democratic Party we’re talking about, demographic representation are far more important factors.

And yes, this isn’t New York. You won’t see a Republican nominee come within 7 points for Governor like Zeklin nor will you see a Democratic Governor do what Cuomo did re: the state legislature or the judiciary (the latter significantly contributing to Democratic losses for the House in New York last November).

[I’m not Stu]

Didn't Cuomo appoint actual Republicans to the state's top court?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

A D vs D race comes down to region. Assuming that Lee advanced against either another Democrat her strategy would be to run up good numbers in the Bay Area and not get completely swamped in SoCal.

She better hope Schiff is the nominee, Porter would steamroll her

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is an odd race where I don't really dislike any of the candidates buy aren't thrilled with any either. Schiff is the most conservative of the three but no one doubts he'd be a standard party-line D voter. Porter is overrated (I never understood her popularity with #Resistance types for someone who is basically just Generic D and hasn't been in the House long until someone pointed out it's because she appears on cable news a lot, I guess that explains it) and her comments about Netanyahu's "reforms" were too stupid for words but she's probably just ignorant instead of malicious and would be another standard D party line voter. Really there's going to be next to no difference between her and Schiff in the Senate. Lee is way too old and might be more combative to D leaders but she honestly likely won't.

I'm betting though that Lee almost certainly loses to both Schiff and Porter. I'd say Porter is favored against Schiff but not heavily. Schiff's problem is that he's so demonized by Republicans he lacks any crossover appeal even if he's thereoretically the least of many evils by Republican standards.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also Lee's age and the fact she hasn't ran for statewide office until now gives me the impression she was planning on retiring anyway and doesn't expect to win but figures one last campaign to put a cap on her career is worth it.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Not sure why everyone is writing Lee off at this point. It’s still way too early to write anyone off.

I’m guessing it’ll be Schiff vs Lee but again, way too early to say.

[I’m not Stu]

Let's see what future polls will be.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not sure why everyone is writing Lee off at this point. It’s still way too early to write anyone off.

I’m guessing it’ll be Schiff vs Lee but again, way too early to say.

Because she’s clearly in a distant third, recently pissed off the CA Democratic establishment by acting like an entitled moron, is facing far stronger and more popular opponents, and there has been no evidence whatsoever yet that she’s anything more than a third wheel in this race.

[I’m not Stu]

I thought that nobody was a lock to win in a D vs D race.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Not sure why everyone is writing Lee off at this point. It’s still way too early to write anyone off.

I’m guessing it’ll be Schiff vs Lee but again, way too early to say.

Because she’s clearly in a distant third, recently pissed off the CA Democratic establishment by acting like an entitled moron, is facing far stronger and more popular opponents, and there has been no evidence whatsoever yet that she’s anything more than a third wheel in this race.

Perhaps. Would be a damn shame if it is Porter vs. Schiff. Clearly the mega-rich San Francisco clique have been doing their best to anoint the latter even if it means enabling elder abuse.

[Torrain]

Dianne Feinstein has died, per Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News. RIP.

[Zedonathin2020]

Dianne Feinstein has died, per Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News. RIP.

WHAT!?!???!!!???

[SnowLabrador]

Dianne Feinstein has died, per Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News. RIP.

WHAT!?!???!!!???

Sad news.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1707739001656930703?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLk...

[Ferguson97]

Newsom has previously indicated he’ll name a caretaker who doesn’t run for 2024, right?

[Roll Roons]

Newsom has previously indicated he’ll name a caretaker who doesn’t run for 2024, right?

Yes.