California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Ragnaroni]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

I would rather abstain than vote for either of them, I feel many Rs wouldn't want to cast a vote for either of them too.

[coloradocowboi]

BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

There’s a decent chance DiFi doesn’t live to make her “announcement”

I was thinking this but didn't want to say it...

The woman is about 10 years past life expectancy. It’s sad, but, combined with her more recent mental decline, she is likely in very poor health. She’s been married three times and has outlived all of them. I truly hopes she can retire and live out her days comfortable, but that’s not a given.

There was a Vox exposé about 5 or so years ago on Congresspeople being prescribed Alzheimer's medication, and rumors swirled one of those referenced was Feinstein. It's sad really, but if you look at her political history and beliefs it's not too surprising that she would end up turning herself into a cyborgian monster to continue advancing her class's interests.

Anywho....

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

I would rather abstain than vote for either of them, I feel many Rs wouldn't want to cast a vote for either of them too.

I really don't understand this. You know he was an actual Blue Dog, right? I think, when it comes down to it, Porter is probably only slightly more conservative than Khanna, who is probably only slightly more conservative than Lee. But on defense issues, budget issues, crime, Adam Schiff is clearly and openly to their right for sure.

I mean, I hope Republicans don't vote for him because I think he is not the Senator we need. But I would be surprised if, up against someone like Katie Porter, conservatives didn't give him another look. And he will definitely come round to court y'all!

[Sestak]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Dem vs Dem with two Southern California Dems seems highly unlikely to me; seeing as the state establishment will almost certainly oppose both.

[Ragnaroni]

BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

There’s a decent chance DiFi doesn’t live to make her “announcement”

I was thinking this but didn't want to say it...

The woman is about 10 years past life expectancy. It’s sad, but, combined with her more recent mental decline, she is likely in very poor health. She’s been married three times and has outlived all of them. I truly hopes she can retire and live out her days comfortable, but that’s not a given.

There was a Vox exposé about 5 or so years ago on Congresspeople being prescribed Alzheimer's medication, and rumors swirled one of those referenced was Feinstein. It's sad really, but if you look at her political history and beliefs it's not too surprising that she would end up turning herself into a cyborgian monster to continue advancing her class's interests.

Anywho....

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

I would rather abstain than vote for either of them, I feel many Rs wouldn't want to cast a vote for either of them too.

I really don't understand this. You know he was an actual Blue Dog, right? I think, when it comes down to it, Porter is probably only slightly more conservative than Khanna, who is probably only slightly more conservative than Lee. But on defense issues, budget issues, crime, Adam Schiff is clearly and openly to their right for sure.

I mean, I hope Republicans don't vote for him because I think he is not the Senator we need. But I would be surprised if, up against someone like Katie Porter, conservatives didn't give him another look. And he will definitely come round to court y'all!

Hmm, we'll see. If it goes down between him and someone way to the left, I might vote for him just to have someone less... progressive!

[Horus]

Does Maebe A. Girl win Schiff's old seat? Would really like to see her in Congress.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff won't beat Katie Porter, he can only force a Runoff if Feinstein retires if Feinstein doesn't retire Schiff won't be in a Runoff lesson from Karen Bass and Rick Caruso females win, but then again there is an open Gov race in 26

[President Johnson]

Shifty Schiff alias pencil neck is in? Excellent news! Strongly endorsed. I always liked him.

Probably will be tough race between him and Porter with either having a chance to win. Feinstein makes a fool of herself still not ruling out another bid and waiting to 2024. Her retirement is long overdue.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This race largely depends on whether Schiff and Porter spend the entire time going after each other while letting Lee have a lane to herself, or whether Porter and Lee battle for the progressive mantle and let the establishment coalesce behind Schiff. Either way, I have a feeling Porter gets the most media attention by a mile and is destined for third either way. The other two have built much stronger local support networks.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If it’s Dem v Dem, we’ll definitely need to look at the previous Dem v Dem races to get an idea what the map will look like. There will probably once again be significant undervotes in the Republican strongholds, with actual votes going for whomever isn’t the Dem establishment candidate. See Kevin De Leon’s performances in the north state despite probably being more progressive than DiFi. Lee/Porter and Porter/Schiff will probably be the two most interesting/least predictable maps/outcomes imo.

Lee/Porter: Two progressives that probably wouldn’t appeal to the Republicans, but also potentially somewhat at odds with the establishment. There would probably be something of a north/south divide.

Porter/Schiff: Two SoCal representatives would make things less predictable. I might give Porter the overall advantage. Schiff is hated by Republicans, but loved by the establishment Dems. The optics of Porter not being the establishment Dem might swing a few Republican votes her way, but the “strongholds” are not highly populated and only really matter for map coloration. Hard to say which of the two would do better in the Bay and Sac areas.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Dem vs Dem with two Southern California Dems seems highly unlikely to me; seeing as the state establishment will almost certainly oppose both.

I’m not so sure. Four years ago definitely, but the center of power in the Democratic Party is currently an open question. Los Angeles pols have seen a lot of high profile wins, like with Padilla, and Weber

[Pollster]

With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

[Sestak]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Dem vs Dem with two Southern California Dems seems highly unlikely to me; seeing as the state establishment will almost certainly oppose both.

I’m not so sure. Four years ago definitely, but the center of power in the Democratic Party is currently an open question. Los Angeles pols have seen a lot of high profile wins, like with Padilla, and Weber

Both of those two were handpicked by Gavin Newsom and are loyal to him. The shift is that Newsom has taken his faction statewide, which allows for politicians from outside the Bay to be elevated but also further cements his own loyalists as the center of the state establishment. This does not bode well for either Porter or Schiff as neither fall in that group. The latter especially has no place in Newsom's California Democratic Party.

[Sestak]

With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

The chances of them doing that are negligible, I think. For one, it further reduces Newsom’s ability to get someone close to him (or at least someone he approves of) elected to that seat. The fact that this seat is facing a contested election is something he already likely sees as a blunder; in his ideal world Feinstein would have vacated the seat mid-term for him to make an anointment. To throw the election to even further potential chaos and upset with RCV is likely the exact opposite of what he wants.

In terms of preventing a massive split, the state party will probably simply rely on the exorbitant cost of running a statewide campaign; the (small and large) Democratic donor base will likely be unable to sustain more than two competitive ones. For instance, if Schiff and Porter are both to rely on small donors I find it hard to believe both will be able to continue adequate fundraising for the next fifteen months; their likely donor bases overlap heavily.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

Newsom would be the last one to push for RCV, he voted it when he was mayor of San Fran

[coloradocowboi]

With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

It’s just as likely that no major Republican gets in and they are forced to pick between a half dozen weirdos

[Cyrusman]

BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

There’s a decent chance DiFi doesn’t live to make her “announcement”

I was thinking this but didn't want to say it...

The woman is about 10 years past life expectancy. It’s sad, but, combined with her more recent mental decline, she is likely in very poor health. She’s been married three times and has outlived all of them. I truly hopes she can retire and live out her days comfortable, but that’s not a given.

There was a Vox exposé about 5 or so years ago on Congresspeople being prescribed Alzheimer's medication, and rumors swirled one of those referenced was Feinstein. It's sad really, but if you look at her political history and beliefs it's not too surprising that she would end up turning herself into a cyborgian monster to continue advancing her class's interests.

Anywho....

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

I would rather abstain than vote for either of them, I feel many Rs wouldn't want to cast a vote for either of them too.

I really don't understand this. You know he was an actual Blue Dog, right? I think, when it comes down to it, Porter is probably only slightly more conservative than Khanna, who is probably only slightly more conservative than Lee. But on defense issues, budget issues, crime, Adam Schiff is clearly and openly to their right for sure.

I mean, I hope Republicans don't vote for him because I think he is not the Senator we need. But I would be surprised if, up against someone like Katie Porter, conservatives didn't give him another look. And he will definitely come round to court y'all!

WTF! I did not know this. How and when was Schiff of all people a "blue dog"? That is a label I would  use for henry cuellar, but not Schiff.

[Cyrusman]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

I doubt it. Being a male probably helps Schiff with the GOP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Not really Karen Bass won over Rock Caruso's plenty of Latino females voted for Bass and they will vote for Porter
I doubt it. Being a male probably helps Schiff with the GOP

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be absolutely hilarious if the GE is Porter vs Schiff and Porter wins because Republicans hate Schiff so much. Based #Populist coalition against establishment Dems!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why do republicans hate adam schiff so much compared to other democrats who are to his left ?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why do republicans hate adam schiff so much compared to other democrats who are to his left ?

Adam Schiff was the impeachment manager.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Feinstein will retire. 2024 is just too late to jump into the race because the other candidates will arleady have had a 1 year headstart of fundraising and campaigning. Feinstein likely just doesn't want to appear as a lameduck until 2024.

[Canis]

Does Maebe A. Girl win Schiff's old seat? Would really like to see her in Congress.

I would really hope so, the race looks really crowded with Mike Feuer, Laura Friedman and others getting ready to hop in, it should be noted the district is very progressive though I think Maebe can make the GE again this time too but im not sure she pulls it off in the end will definitely be a race to watch.

[Zedonathin2020]

Does Maebe A. Girl win Schiff's old seat? Would really like to see her in Congress.

I would really hope so, the race looks really crowded with Mike Feuer, Laura Friedman and others getting ready to hop in, it should be noted the district is very progressive though I think Maebe can make the GE again this time too but im not sure she pulls it off in the end will definitely be a race to watch.

It’s either gonna be them or that Disney Channel alumn. And out of the both of them I’d like it to be Maebe more, if only so I can see conservatives seethe at the sight of a Non-binary drag queen being elected to congress.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Campaigning like that is unserious and would probably loose the top-two against another democrat if she get's past the jungle.