Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't more winnable because Dina Titus and most of our female Fed leg had tough races in 22 and survived just like Ann Kuster did in NH

[BigZuck08]

Lean D.

[NewYorkExpress]

An announcement from former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is considered imminent.

Former Ambassador Jeffrey Ross Gunter, a Republican, intends to announce a run for Senate in Nevada in early August, a source familiar with his plans tells NBC News.

Gunter, a dermatologist and GOP donor, will square off in the Republican primary with Sam Brown, a retired Army captain, and Jim Marchant, the GOP’s 2022 candidate for secretary of state who propagated election conspiracy theories. The candidates are vying for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, who is running for a second term.

[NewYorkExpress]

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is in.

Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who was ambassador to Iceland during Donald Trump’s administration, announced Monday he’s running for U.S. Senate in Nevada, joining an increasingly crowded field of Republicans looking to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen.

In a three-minute introductory video, Gunter presented himself as a loyal Trump supporter committed to furthering the former president’s movement.

“I’ll fight to support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda,” Gunter says in the video.

[Zedonathin2020]

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is in.

Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who was ambassador to Iceland during Donald Trump’s administration, announced Monday he’s running for U.S. Senate in Nevada, joining an increasingly crowded field of Republicans looking to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen.

In a three-minute introductory video, Gunter presented himself as a loyal Trump supporter committed to furthering the former president’s movement.

“I’ll fight to support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda,” Gunter says in the video.

It it just me, or is the Nevada GOP's bench the absolute worst out of all the swing states?

[Lambsbread]

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is in.

Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who was ambassador to Iceland during Donald Trump’s administration, announced Monday he’s running for U.S. Senate in Nevada, joining an increasingly crowded field of Republicans looking to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen.

In a three-minute introductory video, Gunter presented himself as a loyal Trump supporter committed to furthering the former president’s movement.

“I’ll fight to support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda,” Gunter says in the video.

It it just me, or is the Nevada GOP's bench the absolute worst out of all the swing states?

I dunno, the PAGOP's best (and only legitimate) recruit right now for Senate is a multi-millionaire from out of state who already lost a Senate primary to another multi-millionaire from out of state.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1690826825696423936

[SnowLabrador]

Almost nobody is talking about this race, but I honestly think it's a tossup at best for Democrats given the current national environment. I know that the GOP doesn't need it for a majority, but they sure as hell would love to defeat Rosen.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Almost nobody is talking about this race, but I honestly think it's a tossup at best for Democrats given the current national environment. I know that the GOP doesn't need it for a majority, but they sure as hell would love to defeat Rosen.

Rosen will be fine.

[Pollster]

Rosen ran a near-perfect campaign in 2018 that was largely overlooked/taken for granted, as highly competent upper-middle aged women candidates tend to be, due in no small part to the fact that the campaign did not actively try to make its candidate a political celebrity like many Democratic campaigns that year did.

If she does the same this cycle, she's fine so long as the party doesn't collapse nationwide.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rosen ran a near-perfect campaign in 2018 that was largely overlooked/taken for granted, as highly competent upper-middle aged women candidates tend to be, due in no small part to the fact that the campaign did not actively try to make its candidate a political celebrity like many Democratic campaigns that year did.

If she does the same this cycle, she's fine so long as the party doesn't collapse nationwide.

She seems really good at knowing the issues of her state and just coming across as normal - not a career politician - not a political celebrity - doesn't even crutch on her own identity. Nevada is a state where sticking to certain issues for Dems, particularly around abortion, lgbtq rights, healthcare, ect can be very powerful. Opinion polling on these issues would make you think Nevada is as deep blue as WA or CA, but there are other factors that keep the state closer. My guess is assuming no major scandals she outruns Biden by a point or two, but there is def a risk of Biden losing Nevada so she’s not safe

Tilt or Lean D to start.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rosen ran a near-perfect campaign in 2018 that was largely overlooked/taken for granted, as highly competent upper-middle aged women candidates tend to be, due in no small part to the fact that the campaign did not actively try to make its candidate a political celebrity like many Democratic campaigns that year did.

If she does the same this cycle, she's fine so long as the party doesn't collapse nationwide.

She seems really good at knowing the issues of her state and just coming across as normal - not a career politician - not a political celebrity - doesn't even crutch on her own identity. Nevada is a state where sticking to certain issues for Dems, particularly around abortion, lgbtq rights, healthcare, ect can be very powerful. Opinion polling on these issues would make you think Nevada is as deep blue as WA or CA, but there are other factors that keep the state closer. My guess is assuming no major scandals she outruns Biden by a point or two, but there is def a risk of Biden losing Nevada so she’s not safe

Tilt or Lean D to start.

Likely D at worst

[MT Treasurer]

Rosen isn’t a stronger candidate than most other disciplined D challengers/incumbents — she won by the type of margin that any halfway competent Democrat was going to beat Heller by in 2018. Yes, she ran a "good" campaign, but it would have taken a spectacularly bad one to lose that race.

She’s basically doing what Catherine Cortez Masto did, but the question for her/in this race is: Does that work in a presidential year with Biden & Trump on the ballot?

Given the national numbers, it’s hard to argue that this race is any worse than a Toss-up for the GOP even if you assume that down-ballot Ds substantially outrun Joe Biden. Sam Brown isn’t *impressive* or anything, but he can ride a wave to victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen isn’t a stronger candidate than most other disciplined D challengers/incumbents — she won by the type of margin that any halfway competent Democrat was going to beat Heller by in 2018. Yes, she ran a "good" campaign, but it would have taken a spectacularly bad one to lose that race.

She’s basically doing what Catherine Cortez Masto did, but the question for her/in this race is: Does that work in a presidential year with Biden & Trump on the ballot?

Given the national numbers, it’s hard to argue that this race is any worse than a Toss-up for the GOP even if you assume that down-ballot Ds substantially outrun Joe Biden. Sam Brown isn’t *impressive* or anything, but he can ride a wave to victory.

CCM and Rosen are very similar to Dina Titus, and all three have been reelected over and over as I told you before and Rosen is outraising Brown


Lombardo was elected over Sisolak because he was Pro  choice Brown and Laxalt are pro Life

[Burke Bro]

Rosen isn’t a stronger candidate than most other disciplined D challengers/incumbents — she won by the type of margin that any halfway competent Democrat was going to beat Heller by in 2018. Yes, she ran a "good" campaign, but it would have taken a spectacularly bad one to lose that race.

She’s basically doing what Catherine Cortez Masto did, but the question for her/in this race is: Does that work in a presidential year with Biden & Trump on the ballot?

Given the national numbers, it’s hard to argue that this race is any worse than a Toss-up for the GOP even if you assume that down-ballot Ds substantially outrun Joe Biden. Sam Brown isn’t *impressive* or anything, but he can ride a wave to victory.

It's also worth mentioning that Cortez Masto was the only Latina in the Senate and having an easy to associate brand like that can make the difference in a small, heavily Latino state like Nevada, especially if you're running against a Georgetown-educated white guy like Laxalt.

[Steve from Lambeth]

https://twitter.com/tabitha_mueller/status/1765775160689459639

[I’m not Stu]

Marchant will win the primary.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like we're seeing numerous stories/tweets pop up about Brown recently - he's doing no interviews, really not popping up anywhere, etc. - this is the best the NV GOP has?

https://twitter.com/JohannaWarshaw/status/1768420419651219657?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Like what?? lol

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1768626671115014246

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/birenbomb/status/1770097998858494249?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/birenbomb/status/1770097998858494249?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

This sounds like an Arrested Development bit:

The octogenarian has been legally sanctioned for being a slumlord and was convicted of misdemeanor spousal abuse, but he surprisingly advanced through a primary for the Board of Equalization and found himself in a general election against a Republican who told a female lobbyist he should “bitch slap” her at the height of the #MeToo movement, Schaefer won the race, and won re-election in 2022 with the endorsement of the state Democratic Party.

[wbrocks67]

This framing is so idiotic, as if the Rosen campaign woke up this morning and did this solely bc the Cook Political Report moved the race to Tossup

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1775843018525769771?s=20