TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[ProgressiveModerate]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Incorrect.

The typical Texas rural county has had it's population double since 1970 at the same time as the State population has tripled, so it's share hasn't declined by much.

There are way more rural people in Texas than California and they vote Republican by twice the margin than in rural California.

That's the secret of why Abbott won by 11 and Newsom by 19.

Here's a Texas growth map for the 2020 Census. On net, true rural areas are pretty stagnant. Where the good growth is coming from for the GOP is in a lot of these smaller heavily R-leaning cities scattered throughout the state, and also a lot of exurban parts of the larger metros.

While Texas is def more rural than Cali, it's overall a relatively urban state by most metrics. It's just that unlike a lot of northern and coastal states, the GOP has significant pockets of genuine support in and around a lot of these metros like Dallas and Houston. Sure, it may have eroded a bit from the start of the decade, but it's still def there.

For the GOP to hold TX long term, they gotta lock down these outer suburbs and exurbs to produce them huge vote nets. For example, Montgomery County, just north of Harris County, single-handily net Trump over 100k votes in 2020 which is insane, and almost singlehandedly cancelled the Dem vote net from Harris County. Infact, I believe Montgomery County was Trump's biggest net County in the 2020 election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Actually, Abbott pretty universally outperformed Trump in rural TX, at least in terms of margin (not raw vote). To me, that was a huge surprise, because I assumed that 85-90% was the GOP's ceiling in a lot of these places but apparently not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Actually, Abbott pretty universally outperformed Trump in rural TX, at least in terms of margin (not raw vote). To me, that was a huge surprise, because I assumed that 85-90% was the GOP's ceiling in a lot of these places but apparently not.

Next step is committing fraud in the rurals.

I may be wrong, but I think the reason some rurals swung further towards Abbott, especially in the TX panhandle, was due to factor of low Hispanic turnout. Yes, Hispanics in the panhandle lean R, but not as R as their white counterparts. One huge theme nationally in 2022 that I'm surprised hasn't been discussed more is that rural minority communities seemed to experience some pretty huge drop-offs in turnout.

Also, O'Rourke seemed to be running a very urban-centric campaign.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

They got a few state house seats in the suburbs, but fell just short twice in a row in several (Button, Meyer, Shaheen, Leach, Allison, Bohac/Hull) and lost the Mike Schofield seat after one term, though they managed to knock out Sarah Davis in 2020 after failing to do so in 2018. Also the John Lujan seat in south Bexar flipped in a special last year.

Michelle Beckley's seat and James Talarico's old seat were turned into Republican seats but many of the other swing seat Democrats now have sinks. Notably, Erin Zwiener's 2020 opponent now has a safe R house seat, while Vikki Goodwin's 2020 opponent lost his primary to a candidate he had backed for State Senate but got thrown under the bus in redistricting to make room for Pete Flores's return to the Senate.

Slightly off topic, but the County splitting rules and generally favorable grography to Dems really limited the GOP's ability to really gerrymander the state House. They basically ceded like 60 seats to Dems out of the gate (they won 64 in 2022) and the median seat is barely to the right of the state, at least using 2020 Pres numbers.

The State Senate on the other hand is an extremely effective gerrymander that will be very hard for Dems to break. The median seat is like Trump + 20, and because the districts are larger, the GOP connected a lot of left shifting suburbs with mroe stagnant rurals which should slow the shifts of the districts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

They got a few state house seats in the suburbs, but fell just short twice in a row in several (Button, Meyer, Shaheen, Leach, Allison, Bohac/Hull) and lost the Mike Schofield seat after one term, though they managed to knock out Sarah Davis in 2020 after failing to do so in 2018. Also the John Lujan seat in south Bexar flipped in a special last year.

Michelle Beckley's seat and James Talarico's old seat were turned into Republican seats but many of the other swing seat Democrats now have sinks. Notably, Erin Zwiener's 2020 opponent now has a safe R house seat, while Vikki Goodwin's 2020 opponent lost his primary to a candidate he had backed for State Senate but got thrown under the bus in redistricting to make room for Pete Flores's return to the Senate.

Slightly off topic, but the County splitting rules and generally favorable grography to Dems really limited the GOP's ability to really gerrymander the state House. They basically ceded like 60 seats to Dems out of the gate (they won 64 in 2022) and the median seat is barely to the right of the state, at least using 2020 Pres numbers.

The State Senate on the other hand is an extremely effective gerrymander that will be very hard for Dems to break. The median seat is like Trump + 20, and because the districts are larger, the GOP connected a lot of left shifting suburbs with mroe stagnant rurals which should slow the shifts of the districts.

The Denton County and Collin County seats, and the one entirely in northern Tarrant seem to have dummymander potential. Also that northwest Harris County seat may behave similarly to Wesley Hunt's seat.

On their original map, Rs didn't even cede HD-70 to Dems in Collin County. If the GOP majority in the TX House dies in Texas this decade, it'll almost surely be in large part thanks to Collin and Denton counties.

Tbh, outside of Hull and Deayla's seats, Houton doesn't seem as potentially problematic as Dallas when it comes to the state House. For whatever reasons, Rs seemed to be really greedy in Dallas at all levels this cycle but more tame in Houston.

Say Dems hold all the Biden seats (65), plus pick up the 2 north Dallas seats that were like Trump + 1, 5 seats between Collin and Denton, that Williamson County seat, 2 seats from Houston, and 1 from Bexar, that's a majority.

Practically Dems prolly lose one or two more RGV seats, but that doesn't change the math a whole lot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

That's North Carolina.

Yeah, I think to say "Texas is almost there but it never quite gets the results we're looking for" isn't fair, especially when it's only very recently (2018) the state has been considered remotely competitive, and in 2018, 2020, and 2022, people still thought Rs were heavy favorites in their statewide races.

North Carolina on the other has been a close state for quite a while, but has been very stubbornly R on the federal level ever since Obama's narrow win in 2008.

Even in 2022, Texas had some really solid signs for Dems. Beto basically matched Biden's (and outran Hegar's) performance in the 4 biggest metros at the precinct level, only really running notably behind Biden in the Houston arrow and some wealthier/whiter parts of Dallas suburbs. Looking at the swing map, it only looks like Beto would've done a point worse than Biden overall statewide but midterm turnout dynamics killed him.

And unlike NC where rurals are dense, doing well in the cities is enough to carry Texas for Dems. The issue is just historically there are so many huge R vote-netting suburbs Ds have had to breakthrough.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1616624307949420547?s=20&t=fnxIZOM...

Here's 2020 Pres to 2022 Gov. Beto ran slightly ahead of Biden in greater Austin, roughly in line with Biden in San Antonio, and slightly behind Biden in Houston and Dallas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1616624307949420547?s=20&t=fnxIZOM...
Here's 2020 Pres to 2022 Gov. Beto ran slightly ahead of Biden in greater Austin, roughly in line with Biden in San Antonio, and slightly behind Biden in Houston and Dallas.

This is very interesting and there are some other Tweets this user posted that show reason for optimism. The current Democratic coalition in TX is not really built well for a Democratic midterm election, so it makes sense, but it is still shocking to see turnout differential shift a race so much.

Mhm. The cities leftward shifts are generally reliable cause they’re caused by growth patterns.

The real question is how much more juice Rs can squeeze out of rural communities; you always think they’re at they’re curling but they always manage to squeeze a few extra points.

Also, RGV continues to be a huge wild card. Beto overall did about the same as Biden in RGV, running notably ahead and behind in distinct places.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

Trump winning by 3% feels hard to conceive. The state seems to be moving towards Ds, but not quickly enough to make that feasible.
If Beto got within higher single digits or so like I anticipated before Election Day 2022, I would probably be more optimistic here.

How is TX being a 3% Trump win not feasible? Just get simillar leftward shifts out of most suburbs again and don't collapse by another 50 in RGV. Also Beto 18 already proved it's possible for a D to hold Rs below 3% statewide in the right circumstances at the federal level.

Trump's exact margin in TX in 2020 was R+5.58, which is simillar to how GA voted in 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

I'm not sure how Cruz will run behind Trump much in the suburbs. What kind of suburbanite in 2024 no less, will be able to stomach voting Trump again but Ted Cruz is a bridge too far? There is a lot of contrast between Cruz and Abbott in 2018 or Trump and Cornyn in 2020. Between Trump and Cruz, I don't see the logic behind significant ticket splitting in the suburban counties. Maybe in the RGV Cruz underperforms Trump but that won't change the end result unless Trump wins the state by like <1%. I think if DeSantis is the nominee though, Cruz would probably run quite a bit behind him, but DeSantis would win the state by a larger margin than Trump so Cruz probably still survives.

O’Rourke 2018 did better than Biden in every metropolitan area except for DFW where it was the same. The type of suburbanite who votes for Trump but not Cruz would be the same as in other parts of the state: someone who dislikes Biden and Trump, but just can’t stand Cruz’s nasty personality (personality matters a lot to voters) and Cruz’s many breaking of campaign promises like term limits. His trip to Mexico in the middle of the snowstorm would be another reason.

They don’t need to necessarily vote for the Democrat for Cruz to lose. Obviously it helps the Democrat more if they are to get a few percent of Trump voters though, so I do think candidate quality will be especially important for Democrats here. Someone who is a veteran, like McRaven or Kelly or even a Lucas Kunce type.  

If one looks deeper into the precinct data, Biden outran Beto slightly in most "suburbs", Beto did a lot better than Biden in the inner-cities and in 2018 turnout was much more solid whereas in 2022 inner-city turnout really sucked.

Cruz can still run slightly ahead of Trump in the suburbs but still behind him in the metros overall.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ik a lot of people are going to talk about "the suburbs" as a generic term in this race, however, I think there's several unique categories of suburbs that each have their own dyanmics.

1. The *rich* rich suburbs. The best examples of this are University Park north of downtown Dallas, and Hunters Creek Village west of downtown Houston. These suburbs are basically already filled in, very white, very educated, and ofc very rich. These suburbs are particularly conservative, and Biden had a record performance in them that no downballot Ds have come close to matching. This is overall a pretty small portion of suburbs, but they have very high voter turnout and hence have disproportionate importance.

2. The historically Black and Hispanic suburbs. These suburbs are established and have existed for at least several decades. Many people don't consider this in the category of suburbs even though they are very much set up like suburbs, albiet not very wealthy ones. These communities have generally drifted right along with the Hispanic and Black votes. These communities are particularly low turnout, and so turnout is probably more important than persuasion in these.

3. The diversifying inner-ring of suburbs. Think like Bellaire or Northern Dallas County. Developed suburbs that have historically been middle class white but are becoming extremely diverse with growing black, hispanic, and asian populations. These suburbs have shifted pretty hard left as a result of this growth, and Beto 2022 basically matched Biden in a lot of these communities likely in part as a result of this growth.

4. Outer suburbs. These are places like Fort Bend County, McKinney, and Denton which are experiencing rapid new development that's generally upper-middle class. These communities are universally shifting hard D, but in some cases still net Rs more votes just because there are so many more votes (60-40 split of 5000 votes nets more than 80-20 of just 1000). Like the last category, growth is really propelling D shifts and Beto matched or outran Biden in many cases.

5. El Paso, Laredo, and McAllen. Idk rlly what to call these but they exists, are heavily Hispanic, and have rlly weird dynamics.

Overall, not every TX suburb will fit clear cut into each of these categories, but generally speaking, a TX suburb should have some combination of these elements. I think it's important we differentiate cause each of these has really unique dynamics, and there are cases where the so-called Texas suburbs have diverged in their shifts pretty notably.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I have a feeling this primary will break heavily along racial and regional lines.

Assuming both Allred and Gutierrez both remain viable candidates, I'd expect Gutierrez to sweep basically all of the border, the panhandle, and generally most heavily Hispanic communities throughout the state. Allred I suspect will do better in the cities, particularly amongst white liberals and black voters. Also prolly gets a regional boost in Dallas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129
It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

It wouldn't be if Cornyn was the incumbent in the race. However, Ted Cruz is widely disliked by pretty much everyone in Texas politics, and average voters too. I'm also not sure MAGA types have forgiven him for running against Trump in 2016 yet, either. I think Cruz losing is possible, even if Biden fails to carry Texas.

Ted Cruz’s approval ratings have bounced back a good deal from 2018.

Blexas believers are going to be very disappointed on November 5, 2024.

Tbf there's a difference between believing Texas *can* go blue with proper campaigning vs it will go blue.

I'm someone in the camp of Dems can win TX in 2024 if they run a proper campaign and are doing ok nationally, but for now Trump and Cruz are both favored.

Anyone who is completely writing off a 40 EV state that was only R+5.58 in the 2020 election and has generally been shifting left is a bigger problem imo. Even if it ultimately doesn't flip in 2024, very good chance it's closer than 2020 and will finally get a title of a true swing state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129
It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

It wouldn't be if Cornyn was the incumbent in the race. However, Ted Cruz is widely disliked by pretty much everyone in Texas politics, and average voters too. I'm also not sure MAGA types have forgiven him for running against Trump in 2016 yet, either. I think Cruz losing is possible, even if Biden fails to carry Texas.

Also Cornyn was still held under 10 points when Ds didn't invest anything in TX against a relatively inoffensive incumbent. Hegar got more votes than Trump 2016. Cornyn's performance was solid, but also wasn't anything amazing, and downballot statewide Ds that don't invest have only lagged a few points behind the Pres margin.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

Was 2016 really a bad year for TX Dems - it seems they overperformed expectations given Rs overperformance nationally. Dems were never remotely competitive in the TX State Supreme Court seats up that year but they did their job of preventing a GOP supermajority in the State Leg. 2016 was really the first year that Dems really realized they had possible future prospects in TX.

I agree 2020 was kind of a flop. Dems let the GOP outspend them big time which ultimately allowed the GOP to win a bunch of Biden seats in the State Leg and cost Dems a bunch of US House races. Still in hindsight I don't think Dems would've won the legislature with more investment, but it could've been close.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://news.yahoo.com/george-soros-pours-millions-texas-090059290.html

Trump is up 8/10 pts TX but not Cruz he is leading by 2

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg poured in 100M $ to turn Florida BLUE in 2020 and it went all down the drain.

$$$$ isn't everything!

Trump & Cruz will win TX easily this year.

Def think they're both favored, but I don't thing it'll be "easily":

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

Was 2016 really a bad year for TX Dems - it seems they overperformed expectations given Rs overperformance nationally. Dems were never remotely competitive in the TX State Supreme Court seats up that year but they did their job of preventing a GOP supermajority in the State Leg. 2016 was really the first year that Dems really realized they had possible future prospects in TX.

I agree 2020 was kind of a flop. Dems let the GOP outspend them big time which ultimately allowed the GOP to win a bunch of Biden seats in the State Leg and cost Dems a bunch of US House races. Still in hindsight I don't think Dems would've won the legislature with more investment, but it could've been close.

Hillary's campaign actually hit their goals in the metro areas, but they underestimated the significant degree of downballot lag in places like TX07 and TX32. Texas Dems really wanted those two seats but they had to wait two more years before Rs to really started feeling the suburban trends.

Dems didn’t even have a candidate in TX-32 which in hindsight is pretty insane given Clinton won the district

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

There was a map I saw a while back showing how taking out high vote netting dense exurbs like Montgomery and Parker Counties makes Texas a blue state.

In general the GOP self-packs in Texas; there are so many R+80 or R+90 exurbs and rural areas which is really what's keeping TX red in recent cycles. If TX rurals voted more like midwestern rurals it would be so over for the TX GOP but realistically that isn't going to happen and any Dem path to victory relies on further gains in the main metro areas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

There was a map I saw a while back showing how taking out high vote netting dense exurbs like Montgomery and Parker Counties makes Texas a blue state.

In general the GOP self-packs in Texas; there are so many R+80 or R+90 exurbs and rural areas which is really what's keeping TX red in recent cycles. If TX rurals voted more like midwestern rurals it would be so over for the TX GOP but realistically that isn't going to happen and any Dem path to victory relies on further gains in the main metro areas.

You could make a play for Texas rural margins, but they’re so sparse (outside of a few counties) it’d be extremely resource intensive compared to working on suburban margins.

This is honestly a huge, underrated advantage to Dems being a more urban/suburban party; your voters are just more geographically compact so campaigning becomes easier. Especially in a state like TX, there is a path to Dem victory that only relies on juicing up margins in the urban metros even as they're losing rurals like 90-10.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas is a state too red for Allred to win. It is a state that hasn't elected a Democrat in any statewide office since 1994. But Allred's positions are out of step with Texas. He already said that he wished that that the 2nd amendment was not written, so he is running to Bernie Sanders' left and to the left of AOC as she said that gun ownership was not a right.

Immigration will likely be the top issue of this senate race in Texas due to the border crisis that America is living a situation in which we need to secure the border. But Allred not only opposes the border wall but he called it racist and called for that wall to be torn down and in addtion he supports sanctuary cities. He opposed H.R. 2494, a bill that would have made assaulting law enforcement officers, firefighters or other first responders a deportable offense, and H.R. 3941, a bill that would have prohibited school facilities that receive federal funding from housing any illegal immigrants.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-democrats-illegal-immigration-positions-could-come-back-haunt-him-bid-oust-ted-cruz

On energy, there are millions and millions of jobs in Texas that depend on a vibrant oil and gas industry and unleashing America's full energy potentials and using America's own sources of energy is key to fight inflation. But Allred voted against Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act of 2024, a bill that would have repealed restrictions on imports and exports of oil and gas and he voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act appropriating funds for the exploration, production and importation and exportation of sources of energy like oil, minerals, etc.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/36470/97777/177357/unlocking-our-domestic-lng-potential-act-of-2024#97777

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1/all-info

Initially this was going to be one of the key Senate races of the cycle but the enthusiasm just isn't there. Allred is the wrong guy to run against Ted Cruz, Beto's campaign in 2018 was fueled by grassroots energy and excitement, Allred has a very bland DFW corporate tune that can't really echo across a state as large and diverse as Texas. Cruz isn't a very strong incumbent either, but he is in a much better position with the GOP base than he was in 2018 when he was fighting Trump in the primary. The thing is though Ted Cruz isn't an awful incumbent that has the ability to underperform Trump by a significant amount.

The biggest problem for Allred is doesn't look like Biden is even within striking distance in the lone star state and it's not like Allred is going to appeal to a significant amount of Trump voters. Unless Biden somehow comes back and not just wins the election, but actually takes Texas or gets it to an incredibly slim margin, Ted Cruz probably survives.

The math just isn't there for Texas Dems in 2024. They are going to need some insane margins and I'm talking like double digits Tarrant and D+20 Harris county to narrowly win the state, but that doesn't even account for the RGV and rurals shifting right again.

The days of ruby red Texas are over, but I think we are in the era of salmon red Texas where Rs continue to win by mid-high single digits. I'm somewhat bold and think Cruz will outrun Trump actually, and wins by 8 as opposed to Trump's 7.

I don’t think Allred is necessarily the wrong candidate, I just think TX is a really tough nut for Dems to crack because of how diverse the state is and how the population is spread out through several metros. Also agree that Allred isn’t going to have some big 5 point overperformance of Biden off of Cruz’s unpopularity. The part where I disagree is that I think Biden is within striking distance in TX, still Lean R though. Based on the 2022 results, I struggle to see how Biden does much worse than his 2020 showing.

“Rural Texas” as a collective is not guaranteed to shift right again; one fun fact is in 2020 rural Texas as defined by the census actually swung *left* from 2016 to 2020 despite RGV. And even then, TX is a pretty urban/suburban; a 5 point swing right in rural TX would be offset by a 2% shift left across urban/suburban TX.

As for the math, I’d look at net votes rather than % margins. For instance, Biden could feasibly net 50k+ votes out of Tarrant County, a County which was basically tied in 2020, or erase the 55k votes Collin and Denton collectively netted Trump in 2020. Go around the state and add these net votes up erasing the 500k+ vote deficit isn’t as hard as it may seem at face value.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It boggles the mind that the Texas Democratic Party keeps nominating candidates who are more anti-gun than your average Boston Metro West politician.  Seriously, where's the logic?

Honestly, the Dem bench in TX kinda sucks.

The reason is that Rs gerrymandered the state into oblivion, so most TX Dems represent heavily D urban packs and aren't in-touch with the state at large and have never had to win competitive elections.

And obv since TX has been R-leaning for so there aren't really former statewide Ds that can run.

Most competitive congressional/state leg races tend to be in RGV right now, but Dems who win in RGV tend to struggle to win statewide primaries as their appeal is concentrated to RGV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing worth noting is there were a clear number of Haley-Cruz voters in the primary. To be fair, Cruz didn't have any serious primary challengers, but still indicates that anti-Trump Rs might not have the same inherent problems with Cruz they do with Trump.,

In the Dem primary Allred obviously did best in the DFW area, but it generally seems like his stronger performances tended to come from urban/suburban counties across the state. Given how many votes a lot of no-name candidates got, suggests Allred still has name recognition issues he needs to work on.