TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[GALeftist]

This is a must win for a majority hold. Hopefully Cruz runs for re-election. Notable options for Ds include Scott Kelly, Joaquin Castro, Colin Allred, and Lina Hidalgo.

[GALeftist]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

[GALeftist]

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

This person will look you dead in the eyes and unflinchingly tell you that liberals live in a bubble.

[GALeftist]

Ted Cruz slightly underperformed Romney in 2012 against an opponent who spent like $100k total. Lean R, in my opinion.

[GALeftist]

Allred and Guttierez would both be great recruits. Allred would likely overperform in DFW and Guttierez would in the RGV, only thing is Dems need to do well in both and we can only run one candidate. ill reserve making a judgment till they both announce and see how they do with the voters.

Allred is the better of the two, my hot take is they will both underperform in the RGV relative to the past. I think its a sinking ship down there for Democrats and Cruz has the right personality.

This seat won't flip regardless. Allred has a record that is not going to jibe well in 2024, Gutierrez is too progressive for the state. I do think Gutierrez is a phenomenal public speaker though.

Oh, they definitely will, Rs registered a ton of new Republican voters there in recent years, and 2022 showed that the RGV is not going back to how it voted prior to 2020. However not getting totally crushed is important there are quite a few counties there with lots of voters.

 I believe Guttieriez can do significantly better than Biden and Beto did in 2020 and 2022 but the days of hitting 70% plus in those counties are over. Not sure how Allred would do there but he likely doesn't have the same appeal as Guttieriez does, he may outrun Biden their but probably not significantly.

I unironically think Cruz wins by 7 or so this cycle. Whether its Gutierrez or Allred. I really think Allred will collapse pretty horribly if he runs, he should wait it out another cycle.

This seems exceedingly unlikely to me. Biden would probably have to be doing Hillary level bad nationally to lose Texas by 7, and even then Cruz would be likely to underperform.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1654280530941157377

Very possibly will be the most expensive Senate race of all time

[GALeftist]

I’ve seen enough. Lean R ——> Safe R. We can now project that Ted Cruz will win re-election to the United States Senate, defeating congressman Colin Allred.

https://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2023/05/05/ted-cruz-s-challenger-colin-allred-things-would-be-better-if-second-amendment-hadnt-been-written/

I'm getting real tired of this mindless "hurr durr Texas guns" schtick. The reality is that Beto did ~8.5 points worse than 2018 in a year ~8.5 points redder than 2018 even after the AR-15 comments or whatever. Sure, Texas trended left in the interim, but Abbott is also stronger than Cruz.

The reality is that the shifts propelling Texas Democrats forward are in places like Tarrant, Collin, Denton, and Williamson. These are not areas primarily populated by the gun-toting redneck stereotypes modern conservatives like to imagine. I frankly find it very hard to believe that guns are going to be highly salient in this election; I'm personally more concerned about oil.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/AlexBores/status/1654884134215450624

Bro

[GALeftist]

I’ve seen enough. Lean R ——> Safe R. We can now project that Ted Cruz will win re-election to the United States Senate, defeating congressman Colin Allred.

https://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2023/05/05/ted-cruz-s-challenger-colin-allred-things-would-be-better-if-second-amendment-hadnt-been-written/

Might be too early to release this?  Texas has open primaries.  This could end up nominating Gutierrez. 

Gutierrez represents Uvalde; his whole thing is gun control. That might be the one issue he's more liberal on than Allred.