TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

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Petition to rename this thread The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer Killer

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Oh god, oh f**k... https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1640237678447796225

What?

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So who could run in the 32nd to succeed him?

As far as state legislators go there’s Nathan Johnson in the senate and about a half dozen state representatives that could run for it. Maybe the Mayor Johnson, but he’s had issues with the council so I doubt he’ll get much support. Maybe Amanda Reichek, she ran for the state Supreme Court and is a judge in Dallas.

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https://twitter.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1678187280106680322

They’re both very good, strong candidates but in very different ways. It’ll be hard to tell whose better for the general

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While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

2018 was the best opportunity to flip this seat and Beto was as good a candidate as anyone, so I remain skeptical about this seat flipping just yet. I think this may be the last cycle that Cruz hangs on and he retires before 2030 because he'll see the writing on the wall.

The frustrating thing about Texas is Democrats can win, and “have” just not at the same time. Mixing the 2016/2018 coalition with the 2020 coalition should have democrats win, or come winning spitting distance.

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I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

There is no constructive parallel between Walker and Allred. One is an accomplished lawyer and congressman who flipped a (then) competitive seat, the other appeared to have suffered mental decline and gave stump speeches about vampires with an unknown amount of children.

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Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

There was a map I saw a while back showing how taking out high vote netting dense exurbs like Montgomery and Parker Counties makes Texas a blue state.

In general the GOP self-packs in Texas; there are so many R+80 or R+90 exurbs and rural areas which is really what's keeping TX red in recent cycles. If TX rurals voted more like midwestern rurals it would be so over for the TX GOP but realistically that isn't going to happen and any Dem path to victory relies on further gains in the main metro areas.

You could make a play for Texas rural margins, but they’re so sparse (outside of a few counties) it’d be extremely resource intensive compared to working on suburban margins.

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https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status/1770148349787926648
If Ted Cruz becomes AG, Dems might get another chance to flip this seat.

Ew! Trump has to lose!

Kevin McCarthy as Chief of Staff??? Why not hire the captain from the costa Concordia to lead the navy while we’re at it.