TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be 51/49 D anyways we can afford to lose a seat and Manchin is likely a loss

If it's 51/50 we have target TX or FLORIDA , but I am pretty sure with the Early vote WARNOCK will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need TX it's a 51/49D Sen Manchin probably go na lose but if DEMINGS runs in FL Scott in a Prez yr isn't winning by 17

I am growing more confidence that Warnock will prevail there is gonna be early voting like last time  GA is skewed heavily D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allred would be a godsend. He's an NFL player for god's sake!
But Cruz has to run for election for us to have a good chance here

It's safe R irregardless, we couldn't break Abbott lead to within single digits and Trump is gonna win TX anyways or DeSantis we have a better chance in FL if DEMINGS or Graham runs Scott isn't as popular as Rubio Rubio was Latino and too Latino votes away and Rs  in Prez yr isnt winning Miami Dade

He still will be tough in FL but not like Rubio winning by 17%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden can lose the S in 24 guys 49 votes WVa and MT and win it back in 26 Ernst, Tillis and Collins are like at 45 percent Approvals , Ernst has always had subpar Approvals she was never at 55% like Grassley

We can see us winning the H and lose the S based on CA, VA and NY in 24 because there is a Filibuster in the Senate.

Jeff Jackson, Fink, and Golden are gonna run in 26 anyways, we can still win the H and Lose the S in 24 and gain back the Sen in 26 because all the swing states favor Ds in the Senate
24 but do we want that to happen no, that's the worse case scenario

OH will get another fair redistricting map under 24 not 22 guidelines that's why Brown can win but Tester and Manchin are vulnerable

Ryan lost because of Nan W and DeWine is unbeatable like DeSantis no scandal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Colin Allred just writes himself into the spotlight. To put it in wrestling terms, strap a rocket to him and push him to the moon.

I doubt he runs with the DH majority in site for 24 ANYWAYS, winning back all NY, VA 2 and some CA and AZ Districts, he is staying put, Cruz is safe when he starts campaign he gets tough as nails like Greg Abbott

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

John Love III is in and Colin ALRED is considering l hope Colin ALRED announced it's Safe R but I am optimistic on this race TX is becoming more bluer than FL they said that on MSNBC because no one has announced or plans on announcing against Scott

OH, WVA, MT, TX are wave insurance but it's a Prez Eday just remember that Cooper won and Biden and Cunningham lost in 2020 and Manchin and Tester both won in 2012 when Romney easily won MT and WV

I am donating to John Love and Sherrid Brown in 24 definitely

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Sema Hernandez runs again. She would be a fantastic choice.

Lol Colin ALRED has endorsement John Love it's Lean R but it's a Prez race and we can expect higher turnout it's our 51st or 52nd seat pending how GA goes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz knows that Donald Trump is corrupted he said it in the 2016 primary when Palin endorsed Trump over Cru it didn't come into effect after 2016 when  Trump used Russia to get elected be the Pandemic

The R brand is bad because of Insurrection

Colin ALRED endorsed John Love III NOT CHRIS BELL or Royce White, Love is gonna be the Nominee

It's our best pickup opportunity unless DEMINGS or Graham runs against Scott and none have decided to run yet so John Love III IT IS

I have looked all over politics 1.com and Ds so far, it's still a ways away have concluded TX is our best pickups

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In this Environment no we're not gonna win TX but in 2 yrs when Economy and inflation cools, and perhaps the War in Ukraine is over, we are likely to replicate a 51/49 Senate map and  218/217,DH no matter what combo of WVA, GA Runoff, OH, MT and TX are, and there is a KY Gov test in 23 to see if Ds can close the gap on the rural vote

Biden is gonna win the Prez anyways, but s Secular Trifecta with DC statehood would be 👍🏾 we held the blue wall in. 22 WI, PA and MI Govs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allred or Kelly would be amazing recruits. I kinda want Kelly just because it'd be funny to see not just two brothers, but twin brothers, serving in the same chamber together. It'd only be the third time brothers served in the senate together too (Ted and Bobby Kennedy in the 60's, Theodore and Dwight Foster in the early 1800s)

Cruz is favored to win, until we see proof to the contrary. It would not hurt to get our best candidate, though I would miss Colin as my rep.

There has been evidence of split VOTING and the most likely red state to flip is obviously, NC because of Josh Stein is running for GOV and better than Beasley Manchin, Tester won in 2012/2018 but we lost IN, ND, MO and FL in 2018 if the Economy improves as I have said it's not based on now TX can see like MT, WVa split voting and KY, Beshear is favored to win and KY is a 20 pt R state like WV and users think WVA is safe R

It won't be 7.7% unemployment and by then we would of gotten 20K loan Discharge but of course today Cruz would win because Beto lost by 11

Colin ALRED isn't running and has endorsed John Love we are favs to take the H all we need is NY, PA, and NJ and Rs are likely to overreach on investigation of Biden, they don't have the votes for removal of office

Some users base what happened in 22 comparable to 24 and obviously inflation won't be 7% more like 5%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once John Love gets him name out he can make this race competetive

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds should stick to winning OH,, MT, AZ the 50 seat threshold for now

As I said as long as Biden is below 50 we aren't gonna win any new red states we win KS Gov due to fact Democracy Corp had GCB at 50/47 on Eday he is now haxknto 44/55 the NVC news had him at on Eday 22

Before Documents scandal Biden was 50/47 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We aren't winning TX with Biden under 50%, he is at You Gov 44/48 did users know what happened to us in 22 when the GCB was 50/47 by Democracy Corp we lost by 25 in OH, 20 in FL, and we lost by 1 in WI S and Beto lost by 11 in TX Cruz was on Hannity last night and says he has no worries being reelected

But go ahead and Donate it's free will

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds aren't winning TX with Biden in worse poll standings than Eday 22 Democracy Corp had the GCB at 50/47 that's why we won KS GOV now he is at 44/48 LOL and we lost TX by 11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the Ds can't recruit a candidate for FL it's best to avoid both Ds have a better chance in IN, MO and MS where we only list by 9 pts in IN S don't undersetimate Valerie McCrary IN is late breaking that's why I have it in my signature it's an upset pick

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are targeting MO and FL, TX isn't that much concerned just like D's are triaging LA and targeting MS and KY Gov

MS and TX Senate are 3rf tier

Tier 1 OH, MT and WV
Tier 2 MO, FL
Tier 3 TX and MS

Obviously, OH  and AZ as wave insurance are must win a combo of MO, FL, WV and MT, TX and MS any two of 6 gets D's to promise land of 51/50 with Gallego of course

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We gotta get thru this Docugate story with Trump, Pencw and Biden that can hamper their Prez ambitious

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

SnowLabrador thinks that literally anything hurts the Democrats.

It does, we haven't heard from FBI from Docugate on Pence, Trump and Biden don't forget we all know what happened to Gore and Especially Hillary that polls showed they were fibd despite Docugate and she Lost McLaughlin has RS ahead 47/42 and we all know Trafalgar polls are closer than D polls that showed Ryan winning and he LOST we have to wait Jan 24

We have 1 poll from KY Gov that's shows Beshear up 9 9 mnths before Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

Most Democratic voters can't afford to just pick up and move states because they don't like the policies coming out of their state government.

Another thing to consider, is that the GOP base is made up of elderly white voters. These are high-propensity voters. As they die off, the state will become somewhat less red. Especially in close downballot races.

Latinos in TX and FL are R too and it's not just elderly folks dying off the RS protect tax cuts for the wealthy but Beto lost because the D's want an assault weapons ban and TX and FL are pro gun rights that's why Deming's got crushed by 17 but FL have Red flag laws that's why Scott won but Biden is dealing with this Docugate too

But Harris and Desantis are the backup plans but if TX or FL didn't vote for Hillary or OH due to Scalia seat being vacant they're not voting for Harris, why do think Trafalgar never polls FL and TX it's safe R but time to time poll NC and OH

NBC news has Biden back at 44/55 Approvals and that is Eday polls where Beto lost by 11, before Docugate Biden 50/47 easy reelected

We were told Hillary was gonna win TX or FL and her polls were fine during Docugate  too it's because D's enjoy 76 approval among base but suffer deficits with Indies , that's why Gore, Kerry and Hillary lost close Eday

We're not winning TX with Biden at 44/55 and Beto lost by 11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

It's a pretty serious issue, thousands of women are dying because they can't get abortions. For every horror story that makes local news, there are hundreds we don't know about. If I lived in Texas, I would want to get the hell out ASAP.

LoL before 12 weeks of pregnancy, it's called abortion pills and if Women miss a menstrual period it's called baby you can't have period if you are pregnant and it comes at the same time every month at starting at age 35 women start menapause they don't want embroyos past 35 and they give women 50 K to pay off student loans and they have pregnancy test I'd women miss a period I have sisters and a mom, my mom died from colon cancer by fibroids tumors

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is not going D with Biden back at 44/55 Approvals forget it when Beto lost by 11 with Biden at the same Approvals on Eday 22, before Docugate Biden was at 50/47

News flash NY only went 5 pts to Ds and we lost 4 H races at Biden at 44/55 Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's are gonna be damage no matter what happens with the Inspection General report on the Docugate especially in red states like TX and FL anyways but Eday reform is going on in blue States

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not in yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not too optimistic about Allred's chances as this is still Texas, after all, though I'd imagine he's one of the Democrats' top choices in this race.

It's definitely way more likely to happen than Florida. The Democrats' best hope to flip any senate seat in 2024 certainly.

Not really the primary is divided in FL between Matt Boswell and Rod Joseph once they get a nominee then they will be competitive FL has a late primary it's Aug of Eday and then you have MO if MT, KY and MS Gov and KS 22 there can be split voting too it's a Prez race not a midterm that's why it's 303/340 GA, AZ and then OH, NC, FL or TX we aren't winning 416

It's 2 yrs even for Barb Lee and we need more blk S it's probably gonna be Matt Boswell but Rod Joseph and Kunce and John Love only have donated pages up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allred or S. Kelly are the best choices here. I kinda want to see Scott Kelly just because that'd be funny to see + I love astronauts in office. But Allred is also great.

Cruz will hammer Allred non-stop on Immigration.

Allred could promise to personally build the wall himself and Cruz would still attack him on immigration.

Voters aren't motivated to vote in a Prez yr like a midterm on immigration Blks are motivated on Reparations that's why Gallego is running to break the Filibuster

Biden is offering amnesty if voters are so concerned over border Biden would not be leading 52/48 over DeSantis and TRUMP


Yeah Ryan, Beasley and Deming's and Beto Lost in a midterm

Right now it's a 303 map but Obama won FL, OH at the end of 2012 and PVI was 52/48