TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

This is a must win for a majority hold. Hopefully Cruz runs for re-election. Notable options for Ds include Scott Kelly, Joaquin Castro, Colin Allred, and Lina Hidalgo.

While I'm a big fan of Lina Hidalgo, considering she only just won her position by less than 51% idk if we should make her our state-wide candidate.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Texas_Congressional_Districts%2C_118th_Congress.svg/2524px-Texas_Congressional_Districts%2C_118th_Congress.svg.png
This is the post-2022 map.

Okay, so he was running in the same district this time around, however? The following website also confirms this.

https://redistricting.capitol.texas.gov

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/texas/

So that's the post-2022 map or it's the map the legit ran on this year? There seems to be quite a bit of conflicting info out there. Or many sites simply haven't updated their info. But I may be wrong, since this article appears to confirm what y'all said, in which case, my bad.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/24/texas-congressional-redistricting/

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Hot Take- If Trump is not the nominee, the GOP nominee for President will outperform Cruz by at least 9 points

You think another Republican would win Texas by double digits? I think the days of double digit GOP presidential wins in Texas are over. Cronyn only won by 10 points against someone pretty underfunded.

Abbott actually did worse than Cornyn is several metropolitan counties and that was with pretty terrible D turnout as has been noted elsewhere. (CNN's exit poll had the electorate at Trump+9 and the final result was Abbott+11)

Abbott did really bad in the metro counties all things considered. No way he should have only won Tarrant by 4 and Collin by 10. He was basically running against the Stacey Abrams of Texas.

I think Collin flipping in 2024 is basically a given. More of a question is by how much.

I hope to God you're right; and while I don't have much more than anecdotal evidence I definitely believe even Abbott's 10 point win mostly came down to turnout.

The organizing efforts from Democrats in 2022 was also dwarfed by local Republicans in terms of signs on highways and such, although it's arguable whether that makes a difference or not... I think it can definitely affect the enthusiasm of your supporters to see GOP propaganda all over the place with like one or two Beto signs in between. Although (also very anecdotally, of course) I always noticed way more Beto signs in actual neighborhoods and in front of people's houses than Abbott.

Local democrats really need to pickup our game. Collin (and Denton to a lesser extent) is key to breaking through in Texas.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

New poll: Cruz is somehow only 5 points ahead of Allred instead of the +10 I imagined him being at this point

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1661457490112815104?s=46&t=XC6qQa4...

Calin Allred