TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[OSR stands with Israel]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/texas/

[OSR stands with Israel]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Texas_Congressional_Districts%2C_118th_Congress.svg/2524px-Texas_Congressional_Districts%2C_118th_Congress.svg.png
This is the post-2022 map.

Okay, so he was running in the same district this time around, however? The following website also confirms this.

https://redistricting.capitol.texas.gov

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/texas/

So that's the post-2022 map or it's the map the legit ran on this year? There seems to be quite a bit of conflicting info out there. Or many sites simply haven't updated their info. But I may be wrong, since this article appears to confirm what y'all said, in which case, my bad.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/24/texas-congressional-redistricting/

All candidates for congress ran on the new lines this year as this was the first cycle where the new maps were in effect

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

They have hit a ceiling as long as a democrat is in the White House . It’s probably gonna only trend one point democratic at most which really isn’t enough to make the seat winnable .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

They have hit a ceiling as long as a democrat is in the White House . It’s probably gonna only trend one point democratic at most which really isn’t enough to make the seat winnable .

Yes it is. Cruz is a disaster.

Texas is still 10 points more republican than the nation . It’s gonna take a 2008 style win nation wide to really have a chance to knock Cruz out .

[OSR stands with Israel]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

As Texas suprême court officeholder are Elected, as soon as the dems elect a majority of them they will strike down the maps right?

For 3 election cycles yes, but what Texas flipping would set of a massive realignment and make the maps and coalition unrecognizable 10-12 years after that happens.