TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[President Johnson]

With the result of Florida from this year, it seems like this is the Democrats' best shot for a pickup on the pretty tough 2024 map.

I wonder who they could run to challenge Ted Cruz? Maybe that tweet from Mark Kelly's twin brother wasn't a joke? He might be a strong candidate.

Thread title suggestions welcome. How about "The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer"?

[President Johnson]

I agree, Colin Allred would be a very decent candidate.

Not sure whether it's not too early for Hidalgo, although I believe she has great potential. Maybe she can get a House seat first and run for senate in the 2030s or perhaps 2026 during a Republican midterm. Especially if Cornyn potentially retires.

Changed the thread title now

[President Johnson]

I agree, Colin Allred would be a very decent candidate.

Not sure whether it's not too early for Hidalgo, although I believe she has great potential. Maybe she can get a House seat first and run for senate in the 2030s or perhaps 2026 during a Republican midterm. Especially if Cornyn potentially retires.

Changed the thread title now

Lina Hidalgo nearly lost a Biden +12 mega county, twice. Nominating her would be one way to foreclose any possibility of beating Cruz, which probably requires a moderate yet charismatic Democrat challenger. Scott Kelly may be the most intriguing. Or that retired Navy SEAL Admiral.

Fair enough, though as Texas gets more blue, I would definitely keep her on the radar for the future. Depending how she continues to handle her job.

[President Johnson]

A "Texas Monthly" article suggests a number of celebrety candidates for the Democrats. Some are absurd, though Wikipedia now lists actress Eva Longoria as potential candidate. I find that interesting, though my preference would lean towards Alred.

Texas Democrats: It’s Time for a Celebrity Candidate!

It’s worked for the GOP elsewhere, and nothing else has worked for Democrats here.

[...]

Eva Longoria

The former Desperate Housewives star and Corpus Christi native is a traditional Democrat who has become a political power player in recent years, recruiting and fund-raising for candidates both in Texas and nationally. She’s close with the Castro brothers—she developed a never-completed television series based on the family’s story—and didn’t rule out a future run for office when asked in 2020. She’s smart as heck (she earned her master’s degree in Chicano studies while simultaneously starring on Housewives). She’d be a massive fund-raiser. She’s got enviable name ID among voters and nonvoters alike. Honestly, Texas Democrats should be begging her to run for Senate in 2024.

[...]

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/should-texas-democrats-turn-to-celebrities/

[President Johnson]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

I have my doubts Democrats can knock out Cruz in 2024 already, but the same was said of Georgia prior to November 2020.

[President Johnson]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

SnowLabrador thinks that literally anything hurts the Democrats.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/MarkPJonesTX/status/1628071939930566658?s=20

Endorsed. He'd be a strong contender I guess.

[President Johnson]

I'm not too optimistic about Allred's chances as this is still Texas, after all, though I'd imagine he's one of the Democrats' top choices in this race.

It's definitely way more likely to happen than Florida. The Democrats' best hope to flip any senate seat in 2024 certainly.

[President Johnson]

Gutierrez seems like as good a candidate as anyone, but there are still plenty of areas of Texas that are trending Republican. It's moving slightly leftward on balance, but it remains to be seen if the state's abortion ban will create enough of a brain drain to halt this trend.

"Abortion ban is bad for Dems" lol

Keep in mind who you're responding to here. If he was around during the Watergate scandal, he would have predicted a red wave for the midterms in July/August 1974.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/colinallredtx/status/1653727403536183301?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Endorsed!

While Cruz is favored, the Democrats should get all in here with their efforts. Even if Allred falls short, a strong performance may help to flip seats in the House and at the state level.

[President Johnson]

Why isn't the Republican BS of "Biden far-left agenda", "reckless spending" and "soft on crime" not challenged much more, especially by the media? These lies keep getting repeated by Republican hacks and office seekers although there's no factual evidence to back this up. No wonder so many people are buying the lies when they get repeated over and over again.

They really have no idea what "far left" actually is; Biden's agenda certainly isn't, not even Bernie's policies are hard left. The mainstream Democratic agenda is center-left, some might even say center. As for the deficit, Biden has substantially reduced the federal deficit, as have Obama and Clinton. The previous Republican administration were anything but fiscally responsible. Journalists and the Democrats need to push back on this silly narrative much more effectively or - in the media's case - at all.

[President Johnson]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

Well, 2016 plus at least Nevada would be barely enough, though when Texas is flipping, it's almost certainly Arizona and/or Georgia also go blue, which is indeed closing any path to 270. However, I believe we're not there yet.

[President Johnson]

I see Cruz has received the only endorsement that really matters:
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1713224119313916201

I knew Truss was bad, but this bad... oof.

[President Johnson]

This poll by Emerson shows a close race:
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2024-poll-allred-leads-democratic-senate-primary-plurality-are-undecided/

The undecideds are too high here. I'm not seein this one flipping yet, though easily the most likely Democratic pickup out of a dim 2024 map.