TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[ProgressiveModerate]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

[Tekken_Guy]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

They got a few state house seats in the suburbs, but fell just short twice in a row in several (Button, Meyer, Shaheen, Leach, Allison, Bohac/Hull) and lost the Mike Schofield seat after one term, though they managed to knock out Sarah Davis in 2020 after failing to do so in 2018. Also the John Lujan seat in south Bexar flipped in a special last year.

Michelle Beckley's seat and James Talarico's old seat were turned into Republican seats but many of the other swing seat Democrats now have sinks. Notably, Erin Zwiener's 2020 opponent now has a safe R house seat, while Vikki Goodwin's 2020 opponent lost his primary to a candidate he had backed for State Senate but got thrown under the bus in redistricting to make room for Pete Flores's return to the Senate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

They got a few state house seats in the suburbs, but fell just short twice in a row in several (Button, Meyer, Shaheen, Leach, Allison, Bohac/Hull) and lost the Mike Schofield seat after one term, though they managed to knock out Sarah Davis in 2020 after failing to do so in 2018. Also the John Lujan seat in south Bexar flipped in a special last year.

Michelle Beckley's seat and James Talarico's old seat were turned into Republican seats but many of the other swing seat Democrats now have sinks. Notably, Erin Zwiener's 2020 opponent now has a safe R house seat, while Vikki Goodwin's 2020 opponent lost his primary to a candidate he had backed for State Senate but got thrown under the bus in redistricting to make room for Pete Flores's return to the Senate.

Slightly off topic, but the County splitting rules and generally favorable grography to Dems really limited the GOP's ability to really gerrymander the state House. They basically ceded like 60 seats to Dems out of the gate (they won 64 in 2022) and the median seat is barely to the right of the state, at least using 2020 Pres numbers.

The State Senate on the other hand is an extremely effective gerrymander that will be very hard for Dems to break. The median seat is like Trump + 20, and because the districts are larger, the GOP connected a lot of left shifting suburbs with mroe stagnant rurals which should slow the shifts of the districts.

[Tekken_Guy]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

They got a few state house seats in the suburbs, but fell just short twice in a row in several (Button, Meyer, Shaheen, Leach, Allison, Bohac/Hull) and lost the Mike Schofield seat after one term, though they managed to knock out Sarah Davis in 2020 after failing to do so in 2018. Also the John Lujan seat in south Bexar flipped in a special last year.

Michelle Beckley's seat and James Talarico's old seat were turned into Republican seats but many of the other swing seat Democrats now have sinks. Notably, Erin Zwiener's 2020 opponent now has a safe R house seat, while Vikki Goodwin's 2020 opponent lost his primary to a candidate he had backed for State Senate but got thrown under the bus in redistricting to make room for Pete Flores's return to the Senate.

Slightly off topic, but the County splitting rules and generally favorable grography to Dems really limited the GOP's ability to really gerrymander the state House. They basically ceded like 60 seats to Dems out of the gate (they won 64 in 2022) and the median seat is barely to the right of the state, at least using 2020 Pres numbers.

The State Senate on the other hand is an extremely effective gerrymander that will be very hard for Dems to break. The median seat is like Trump + 20, and because the districts are larger, the GOP connected a lot of left shifting suburbs with mroe stagnant rurals which should slow the shifts of the districts.

The Denton County and Collin County seats, and the one entirely in northern Tarrant seem to have dummymander potential. Also that northwest Harris County seat may behave similarly to Wesley Hunt's seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

Part of Dems issue in Texas is due to gerrymandering, most notable Dems in the state only win "packed" seats and never had to seriously campaign for a competitive GE and/or get broad appeal.

The main exception would be some of the RGV Dem state senators, but again, would they have the appeal needed to win statewide?

On the congressional level, only Allred and Fletcher ever really faced serious GE fights, Dems never really cracked the state Senate gerrymander outside of Beverly Powell and Nathan Johnson, both of whom are still relatively new faces, and then the state House districts tend to be too small to really mean much for a run at statewide office.

As a Dem, you also have to do strong with liberal whites, blacks, asians, and both liberal and more conservative Hispanic voters which can be a tough coalition to keep together. Hegar's beef with Royce West is a good recent example.

They got a few state house seats in the suburbs, but fell just short twice in a row in several (Button, Meyer, Shaheen, Leach, Allison, Bohac/Hull) and lost the Mike Schofield seat after one term, though they managed to knock out Sarah Davis in 2020 after failing to do so in 2018. Also the John Lujan seat in south Bexar flipped in a special last year.

Michelle Beckley's seat and James Talarico's old seat were turned into Republican seats but many of the other swing seat Democrats now have sinks. Notably, Erin Zwiener's 2020 opponent now has a safe R house seat, while Vikki Goodwin's 2020 opponent lost his primary to a candidate he had backed for State Senate but got thrown under the bus in redistricting to make room for Pete Flores's return to the Senate.

Slightly off topic, but the County splitting rules and generally favorable grography to Dems really limited the GOP's ability to really gerrymander the state House. They basically ceded like 60 seats to Dems out of the gate (they won 64 in 2022) and the median seat is barely to the right of the state, at least using 2020 Pres numbers.

The State Senate on the other hand is an extremely effective gerrymander that will be very hard for Dems to break. The median seat is like Trump + 20, and because the districts are larger, the GOP connected a lot of left shifting suburbs with mroe stagnant rurals which should slow the shifts of the districts.

The Denton County and Collin County seats, and the one entirely in northern Tarrant seem to have dummymander potential. Also that northwest Harris County seat may behave similarly to Wesley Hunt's seat.

On their original map, Rs didn't even cede HD-70 to Dems in Collin County. If the GOP majority in the TX House dies in Texas this decade, it'll almost surely be in large part thanks to Collin and Denton counties.

Tbh, outside of Hull and Deayla's seats, Houton doesn't seem as potentially problematic as Dallas when it comes to the state House. For whatever reasons, Rs seemed to be really greedy in Dallas at all levels this cycle but more tame in Houston.

Say Dems hold all the Biden seats (65), plus pick up the 2 north Dallas seats that were like Trump + 1, 5 seats between Collin and Denton, that Williamson County seat, 2 seats from Houston, and 1 from Bexar, that's a majority.

Practically Dems prolly lose one or two more RGV seats, but that doesn't change the math a whole lot.

[Pollster]

Latest chatter I've heard is that Vicente Gonzalez is being recruited though there's no indication that he's interested.

[Sir Mohamed]

Latest chatter I've heard is that Vicente Gonzalez is being recruited though there's no indication that he's interested.

Dems should convince Rep. Collin Alred to launch a senate bid in 2024.

[Zedonathin2020]

Latest chatter I've heard is that Vicente Gonzalez is being recruited though there's no indication that he's interested.

Dems should convince Rep. Collin Alred to launch a senate bid in 2024.

Even then Democrats still wouldn't have a chance at winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds should stick to winning OH,, MT, AZ the 50 seat threshold for now

As I said as long as Biden is below 50 we aren't gonna win any new red states we win KS Gov due to fact Democracy Corp had GCB at 50/47 on Eday he is now haxknto 44/55 the NVC news had him at on Eday 22

Before Documents scandal Biden was 50/47 

[Lambsbread]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

[Fancyarcher]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

I wouldn't describe it as that, though. It's only been single digits in terms of races twice in the past several years, and 2020 is the first time it was even properly considered semi-competitive in a presidental race in a long time.

If anything Democrats have a lot of room to grow in the state. It's just that turnout dynamics do not currently favor them in the state, and it depends on a lot of factors.

Also, remember people said the same thing about Georgia prior to 2020, so anything can happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We aren't winning TX with Biden under 50%, he is at You Gov 44/48 did users know what happened to us in 22 when the GCB was 50/47 by Democracy Corp we lost by 25 in OH, 20 in FL, and we lost by 1 in WI S and Beto lost by 11 in TX Cruz was on Hannity last night and says he has no worries being reelected

But go ahead and Donate it's free will

[President Johnson]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

I have my doubts Democrats can knock out Cruz in 2024 already, but the same was said of Georgia prior to November 2020.

[Epaminondas]

Just looking at the map, I'm surprised to see Dems hold the area coterminous with TX-23 in the House (HD74, Morales) and the Senate (SD19 - Gutierrez) yet got blown out of the water in TX-23 in 2022.

Is the congressional district much redder at the edges, is Gonzales a juggernaut, or have Dems never fielded a good candidate since Pete Gallego in 2012?

[Tintrlvr]

Just looking at the map, I'm surprised to see Dems hold the area coterminous with TX-23 in the House (HD74, Morales) and the Senate (SD19 - Gutierrez) yet got blown out of the water in TX-23 in 2022.

Is the congressional district much redder at the edges, is Gonzales a juggernaut, or have Dems never fielded a good candidate since Pete Gallego in 2012?

The northern suburbs of San Antonio are not in either SD19 or HD74 and are very Republican. But also this is a seat I'd expect to be more Democratic downballot.

[S019]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

They have hit a ceiling as long as a democrat is in the White House . It’s probably gonna only trend one point democratic at most which really isn’t enough to make the seat winnable .

[Spectator]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

They have hit a ceiling as long as a democrat is in the White House . It’s probably gonna only trend one point democratic at most which really isn’t enough to make the seat winnable .

Yes it is. Cruz is a disaster.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

They have hit a ceiling as long as a democrat is in the White House . It’s probably gonna only trend one point democratic at most which really isn’t enough to make the seat winnable .

Yes it is. Cruz is a disaster.

Texas is still 10 points more republican than the nation . It’s gonna take a 2008 style win nation wide to really have a chance to knock Cruz out .

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

They have hit a ceiling as long as a democrat is in the White House . It’s probably gonna only trend one point democratic at most which really isn’t enough to make the seat winnable .

Yes it is. Cruz is a disaster.

Cruz is going to outrun Trump lol

If there is one Republican more unpopular with independents than Trump it's Cruz.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I'm not concerned with the dick-measuring contest. I'll believe a Cruz loss when I see it on Election Day.

[Mr. Smith]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

That's North Carolina.

[SnowLabrador]

Cruz wins 53-46 in one of the most overrated races of the cycle. All the money in the world can't change the fact that Texas isn't there yet, and might never be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

That's North Carolina.

Yeah, I think to say "Texas is almost there but it never quite gets the results we're looking for" isn't fair, especially when it's only very recently (2018) the state has been considered remotely competitive, and in 2018, 2020, and 2022, people still thought Rs were heavy favorites in their statewide races.

North Carolina on the other has been a close state for quite a while, but has been very stubbornly R on the federal level ever since Obama's narrow win in 2008.

Even in 2022, Texas had some really solid signs for Dems. Beto basically matched Biden's (and outran Hegar's) performance in the 4 biggest metros at the precinct level, only really running notably behind Biden in the Houston arrow and some wealthier/whiter parts of Dallas suburbs. Looking at the swing map, it only looks like Beto would've done a point worse than Biden overall statewide but midterm turnout dynamics killed him.

And unlike NC where rurals are dense, doing well in the cities is enough to carry Texas for Dems. The issue is just historically there are so many huge R vote-netting suburbs Ds have had to breakthrough.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1616624307949420547?s=20&t=fnxIZOM...

Here's 2020 Pres to 2022 Gov. Beto ran slightly ahead of Biden in greater Austin, roughly in line with Biden in San Antonio, and slightly behind Biden in Houston and Dallas.