TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Allred or Kelly would be amazing recruits. I kinda want Kelly just because it'd be funny to see not just two brothers, but twin brothers, serving in the same chamber together. It'd only be the third time brothers served in the senate together too (Ted and Bobby Kennedy in the 60's, Theodore and Dwight Foster in the early 1800s)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allred or Kelly would be amazing recruits. I kinda want Kelly just because it'd be funny to see not just two brothers, but twin brothers, serving in the same chamber together. It'd only be the third time brothers served in the senate together too (Ted and Bobby Kennedy in the 60's, Theodore and Dwight Foster in the early 1800s)

Cruz is favored to win, until we see proof to the contrary. It would not hurt to get our best candidate, though I would miss Colin as my rep.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allred or Kelly would be amazing recruits. I kinda want Kelly just because it'd be funny to see not just two brothers, but twin brothers, serving in the same chamber together. It'd only be the third time brothers served in the senate together too (Ted and Bobby Kennedy in the 60's, Theodore and Dwight Foster in the early 1800s)

Cruz is favored to win, until we see proof to the contrary. It would not hurt to get our best candidate, though I would miss Colin as my rep.

There has been evidence of split VOTING and the most likely red state to flip is obviously, NC because of Josh Stein is running for GOV and better than Beasley Manchin, Tester won in 2012/2018 but we lost IN, ND, MO and FL in 2018 if the Economy improves as I have said it's not based on now TX can see like MT, WVa split voting and KY, Beshear is favored to win and KY is a 20 pt R state like WV and users think WVA is safe R

It won't be 7.7% unemployment and by then we would of gotten 20K loan Discharge but of course today Cruz would win because Beto lost by 11

Colin ALRED isn't running and has endorsed John Love we are favs to take the H all we need is NY, PA, and NJ and Rs are likely to overreach on investigation of Biden, they don't have the votes for removal of office

Some users base what happened in 22 comparable to 24 and obviously inflation won't be 7% more like 5%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allred or Kelly would be amazing recruits. I kinda want Kelly just because it'd be funny to see not just two brothers, but twin brothers, serving in the same chamber together. It'd only be the third time brothers served in the senate together too (Ted and Bobby Kennedy in the 60's, Theodore and Dwight Foster in the early 1800s)

Cruz is favored to win, until we see proof to the contrary. It would not hurt to get our best candidate, though I would miss Colin as my rep.

There has been evidence of split VOTING and the most likely red state to flip is obviously, NC because of Josh Stein is running for Senate, Manchin, Tester won in 2012/2018 but we lost IN, ND, MO and FL in 2018 if the Economy improves as I have said it's not based on now TX can see like MT, WVa split voting and KY, Beshear is favored to win and KY is a 20 pt R state like WV and users think WVA is safe R

It won't be 7.7% unemployment and by then we would of gotten 20K loan Discharge but of course today Cruz would win because Beto lost by 11

We do have a ton of turf to defend on the 2024 Senate map.
As for TX, anyhow, my prediction that Beto might make it close utterly flopped and the last polling bore out basically none of my expectations. My home county even gave a solid margin to Abbott. The D base here just does not seem huge enough for Cruz to be massively vulnerable yet. But Cruz is truly polarizing in a way Cornyn and Abbott aren't. Yes, the man has his zealous defenders...many of them...but maybe a Dem who can work the swing vote has a chance. Cruz did do rather weakly in 2018...

[President Johnson]

A "Texas Monthly" article suggests a number of celebrety candidates for the Democrats. Some are absurd, though Wikipedia now lists actress Eva Longoria as potential candidate. I find that interesting, though my preference would lean towards Alred.

Texas Democrats: It’s Time for a Celebrity Candidate!

It’s worked for the GOP elsewhere, and nothing else has worked for Democrats here.

[...]

Eva Longoria

The former Desperate Housewives star and Corpus Christi native is a traditional Democrat who has become a political power player in recent years, recruiting and fund-raising for candidates both in Texas and nationally. She’s close with the Castro brothers—she developed a never-completed television series based on the family’s story—and didn’t rule out a future run for office when asked in 2020. She’s smart as heck (she earned her master’s degree in Chicano studies while simultaneously starring on Housewives). She’d be a massive fund-raiser. She’s got enviable name ID among voters and nonvoters alike. Honestly, Texas Democrats should be begging her to run for Senate in 2024.

[...]

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/should-texas-democrats-turn-to-celebrities/

[Gass3268]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

[exopolitician]

A "Texas Monthly" article suggests a number of celebrety candidates for the Democrats. Some are absurd, though Wikipedia now lists actress Eva Longoria as potential candidate. I find that interesting, though my preference would lean towards Alred.

Texas Democrats: It’s Time for a Celebrity Candidate!

It’s worked for the GOP elsewhere, and nothing else has worked for Democrats here.

[...]

Eva Longoria

The former Desperate Housewives star and Corpus Christi native is a traditional Democrat who has become a political power player in recent years, recruiting and fund-raising for candidates both in Texas and nationally. She’s close with the Castro brothers—she developed a never-completed television series based on the family’s story—and didn’t rule out a future run for office when asked in 2020. She’s smart as heck (she earned her master’s degree in Chicano studies while simultaneously starring on Housewives). She’d be a massive fund-raiser. She’s got enviable name ID among voters and nonvoters alike. Honestly, Texas Democrats should be begging her to run for Senate in 2024.

[...]

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/should-texas-democrats-turn-to-celebrities/

I absolutely hate this idea, and I'm not sure what makes people think a celebrity candidate would do well in Texas? You know Republicans would be screaming at the top of their lungs about the Hollywood elite trying to interject in Texas politics. It's just not a great idea.

[oldtimer]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

[S019]

A "Texas Monthly" article suggests a number of celebrety candidates for the Democrats. Some are absurd, though Wikipedia now lists actress Eva Longoria as potential candidate. I find that interesting, though my preference would lean towards Alred.

Texas Democrats: It’s Time for a Celebrity Candidate!

It’s worked for the GOP elsewhere, and nothing else has worked for Democrats here.

[...]

Eva Longoria

The former Desperate Housewives star and Corpus Christi native is a traditional Democrat who has become a political power player in recent years, recruiting and fund-raising for candidates both in Texas and nationally. She’s close with the Castro brothers—she developed a never-completed television series based on the family’s story—and didn’t rule out a future run for office when asked in 2020. She’s smart as heck (she earned her master’s degree in Chicano studies while simultaneously starring on Housewives). She’d be a massive fund-raiser. She’s got enviable name ID among voters and nonvoters alike. Honestly, Texas Democrats should be begging her to run for Senate in 2024.

[...]

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/should-texas-democrats-turn-to-celebrities/

Joe Rogan would never win a Democratic primary and including him is incredibly stupid (not that he’d ever run).

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1595176328294268928?cxt=HHwWgIC8oeiamqMsAAAA

[Spectator]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

[oldtimer]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Incorrect.

The typical Texas rural county has had it's population double since 1970 at the same time as the State population has tripled, so it's share hasn't declined by much.

There are way more rural people in Texas than California and they vote Republican by twice the margin than in rural California.

That's the secret of why Abbott won by 11 and Newsom by 19.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

A "Texas Monthly" article suggests a number of celebrety candidates for the Democrats. Some are absurd, though Wikipedia now lists actress Eva Longoria as potential candidate. I find that interesting, though my preference would lean towards Alred.

Texas Democrats: It’s Time for a Celebrity Candidate!

It’s worked for the GOP elsewhere, and nothing else has worked for Democrats here.

[...]

Eva Longoria

The former Desperate Housewives star and Corpus Christi native is a traditional Democrat who has become a political power player in recent years, recruiting and fund-raising for candidates both in Texas and nationally. She’s close with the Castro brothers—she developed a never-completed television series based on the family’s story—and didn’t rule out a future run for office when asked in 2020. She’s smart as heck (she earned her master’s degree in Chicano studies while simultaneously starring on Housewives). She’d be a massive fund-raiser. She’s got enviable name ID among voters and nonvoters alike. Honestly, Texas Democrats should be begging her to run for Senate in 2024.

[...]

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/should-texas-democrats-turn-to-celebrities/

I feel like this article was written before the midterms in which yet again all the celebrity candidates feel on their face.
Like they almost always do.

[ProgressiveModerate]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Incorrect.

The typical Texas rural county has had it's population double since 1970 at the same time as the State population has tripled, so it's share hasn't declined by much.

There are way more rural people in Texas than California and they vote Republican by twice the margin than in rural California.

That's the secret of why Abbott won by 11 and Newsom by 19.

Here's a Texas growth map for the 2020 Census. On net, true rural areas are pretty stagnant. Where the good growth is coming from for the GOP is in a lot of these smaller heavily R-leaning cities scattered throughout the state, and also a lot of exurban parts of the larger metros.

While Texas is def more rural than Cali, it's overall a relatively urban state by most metrics. It's just that unlike a lot of northern and coastal states, the GOP has significant pockets of genuine support in and around a lot of these metros like Dallas and Houston. Sure, it may have eroded a bit from the start of the decade, but it's still def there.

For the GOP to hold TX long term, they gotta lock down these outer suburbs and exurbs to produce them huge vote nets. For example, Montgomery County, just north of Harris County, single-handily net Trump over 100k votes in 2020 which is insane, and almost singlehandedly cancelled the Dem vote net from Harris County. Infact, I believe Montgomery County was Trump's biggest net County in the 2020 election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Actually, Abbott pretty universally outperformed Trump in rural TX, at least in terms of margin (not raw vote). To me, that was a huge surprise, because I assumed that 85-90% was the GOP's ceiling in a lot of these places but apparently not.

[lfromnj]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Actually, Abbott pretty universally outperformed Trump in rural TX, at least in terms of margin (not raw vote). To me, that was a huge surprise, because I assumed that 85-90% was the GOP's ceiling in a lot of these places but apparently not.

Next step is committing fraud in the rurals.

[ProgressiveModerate]

All I know is whoever is the nominee needs to pound the pavement as hard if not harder than Beto did.

I've come to the conclution that Texas is one of those states that it doesn't really matter.

Conservatives have always had a pretty stable lead before and after Bush W. due to the size of Texas's rural population which has mostly kept up with the state's population growth in the past 50 years.

It's the reverse of the West Coast.

Texas rurals are stagnant or declining. Trump in 2020 just juiced literally every vote he could out of them:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/texas/counties

Actually, Abbott pretty universally outperformed Trump in rural TX, at least in terms of margin (not raw vote). To me, that was a huge surprise, because I assumed that 85-90% was the GOP's ceiling in a lot of these places but apparently not.

Next step is committing fraud in the rurals.

I may be wrong, but I think the reason some rurals swung further towards Abbott, especially in the TX panhandle, was due to factor of low Hispanic turnout. Yes, Hispanics in the panhandle lean R, but not as R as their white counterparts. One huge theme nationally in 2022 that I'm surprised hasn't been discussed more is that rural minority communities seemed to experience some pretty huge drop-offs in turnout.

Also, O'Rourke seemed to be running a very urban-centric campaign.

[Senator Incitatus]

I’d like to see Ross Perot Jr. nominated.

[BloJo94]

I’d like to see Ross Perot Jr. nominated.

Can beat Cruz in the primary?

[Del Tachi]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

[Senator Incitatus]

I’d like to see Ross Perot Jr. nominated.

Can beat Cruz in the primary?

Cruz should retire.

[Roll Roons]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

[Pollster]

Democrats have been trying to recruit Admiral Bill McRaven to run statewide here for years. I'm sure they'll try again this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once John Love gets him name out he can make this race competetive

[Landslide Lyndon]

Democrats have been trying to recruit Admiral Bill McRaven to run statewide here for years. I'm sure they'll try again this year.

Maybe this time they'll go after Scott Kelly.