TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

There was a map I saw a while back showing how taking out high vote netting dense exurbs like Montgomery and Parker Counties makes Texas a blue state.

In general the GOP self-packs in Texas; there are so many R+80 or R+90 exurbs and rural areas which is really what's keeping TX red in recent cycles. If TX rurals voted more like midwestern rurals it would be so over for the TX GOP but realistically that isn't going to happen and any Dem path to victory relies on further gains in the main metro areas.

You could make a play for Texas rural margins, but they’re so sparse (outside of a few counties) it’d be extremely resource intensive compared to working on suburban margins.

This is honestly a huge, underrated advantage to Dems being a more urban/suburban party; your voters are just more geographically compact so campaigning becomes easier. Especially in a state like TX, there is a path to Dem victory that only relies on juicing up margins in the urban metros even as they're losing rurals like 90-10.

Downside is that in many states Dems self-pack.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

[Mr. Smith]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

...It's Beto v. Abbott all over again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

...It's Beto v. Abbott all over again.

Allred isn't Beto, he never tied Cruz in polls, Allred is a decorated Football Vet Titan, Cornyn is next in 26, Guiterrez is def gonna run in 26

[Dan the Roman]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

In 2020 the Democratic party was coming off 2018, they were not just targeting the Presidential race, but almost a dozen US House races along with control of the State House. Plus the Senate race.

This year they aren't really targeting any Republican US House seats. I think most unenthusiastic Democrats would vote, but Biden is not the rallying point around which you would want to build a mass organizational campaign.

Decent chance Texas drifts right this year. Not because of demographics or trends, merely because Democratic turnout falls a whole lot more than Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Underestimate ALLRED if you like I had it Safe R like FL and changed the ratings because I am now donating to ALLRED and Powell

[Spectator]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

...It's Beto v. Abbott all over again.

Cruz was the reason 2018 was so close. Not because Beto was a star which he obviously wasn’t considering his past few campaigns.

[UWS]

Texas is a state too red for Allred to win. It is a state that hasn't elected a Democrat in any statewide office since 1994. But Allred's positions are out of step with Texas. He already said that he wished that that the 2nd amendment was not written, so he is running to Bernie Sanders' left and to the left of AOC as she said that gun ownership was not a right.

Immigration will likely be the top issue of this senate race in Texas due to the border crisis that America is living a situation in which we need to secure the border. But Allred not only opposes the border wall but he called it racist and called for that wall to be torn down and in addtion he supports sanctuary cities. He opposed H.R. 2494, a bill that would have made assaulting law enforcement officers, firefighters or other first responders a deportable offense, and H.R. 3941, a bill that would have prohibited school facilities that receive federal funding from housing any illegal immigrants.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-democrats-illegal-immigration-positions-could-come-back-haunt-him-bid-oust-ted-cruz

On energy, there are millions and millions of jobs in Texas that depend on a vibrant oil and gas industry and unleashing America's full energy potentials and using America's own sources of energy is key to fight inflation. But Allred voted against Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act of 2024, a bill that would have repealed restrictions on imports and exports of oil and gas and he voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act appropriating funds for the exploration, production and importation and exportation of sources of energy like oil, minerals, etc.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/36470/97777/177357/unlocking-our-domestic-lng-potential-act-of-2024#97777

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1/all-info

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas is a state too red for Allred to win. It is a state that hasn't elected a Democrat in any statewide office since 1994. But Allred's positions are out of step with Texas. He already said that he wished that that the 2nd amendment was not written, so he is running to Bernie Sanders' left and to the left of AOC as she said that gun ownership was not a right.

Immigration will likely be the top issue of this senate race in Texas due to the border crisis that America is living a situation in which we need to secure the border. But Allred not only opposes the border wall but he called it racist and called for that wall to be torn down and in addtion he supports sanctuary cities. He opposed H.R. 2494, a bill that would have made assaulting law enforcement officers, firefighters or other first responders a deportable offense, and H.R. 3941, a bill that would have prohibited school facilities that receive federal funding from housing any illegal immigrants.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-democrats-illegal-immigration-positions-could-come-back-haunt-him-bid-oust-ted-cruz

On energy, there are millions and millions of jobs in Texas that depend on a vibrant oil and gas industry and unleashing America's full energy potentials and using America's own sources of energy is key to fight inflation. But Allred voted against Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act of 2024, a bill that would have repealed restrictions on imports and exports of oil and gas and he voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act appropriating funds for the exploration, production and importation and exportation of sources of energy like oil, minerals, etc.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/36470/97777/177357/unlocking-our-domestic-lng-potential-act-of-2024#97777

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1/all-info

Initially this was going to be one of the key Senate races of the cycle but the enthusiasm just isn't there. Allred is the wrong guy to run against Ted Cruz, Beto's campaign in 2018 was fueled by grassroots energy and excitement, Allred has a very bland DFW corporate tune that can't really echo across a state as large and diverse as Texas. Cruz isn't a very strong incumbent either, but he is in a much better position with the GOP base than he was in 2018 when he was fighting Trump in the primary. The thing is though Ted Cruz isn't an awful incumbent that has the ability to underperform Trump by a significant amount.

The biggest problem for Allred is doesn't look like Biden is even within striking distance in the lone star state and it's not like Allred is going to appeal to a significant amount of Trump voters. Unless Biden somehow comes back and not just wins the election, but actually takes Texas or gets it to an incredibly slim margin, Ted Cruz probably survives.

The math just isn't there for Texas Dems in 2024. They are going to need some insane margins and I'm talking like double digits Tarrant and D+20 Harris county to narrowly win the state, but that doesn't even account for the RGV and rurals shifting right again.

The days of ruby red Texas are over, but I think we are in the era of salmon red Texas where Rs continue to win by mid-high single digits. I'm somewhat bold and think Cruz will outrun Trump actually, and wins by 8 as opposed to Trump's 7.

[Sir Mohamed]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

...It's Beto v. Abbott all over again.

Cruz was the reason 2018 was so close. Not because Beto was a star which he obviously wasn’t considering his past few campaigns.

He still ran a good senate campaign in 2018 though. His later campaigns flopped obviously. So 2018 was a now or never moment for him. Let's see whether Allred can do better.

[Mechavada]

It boggles the mind that the Texas Democratic Party keeps nominating candidates who are more anti-gun than your average Boston Metro West politician.  Seriously, where's the logic?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas is a state too red for Allred to win. It is a state that hasn't elected a Democrat in any statewide office since 1994. But Allred's positions are out of step with Texas. He already said that he wished that that the 2nd amendment was not written, so he is running to Bernie Sanders' left and to the left of AOC as she said that gun ownership was not a right.

Immigration will likely be the top issue of this senate race in Texas due to the border crisis that America is living a situation in which we need to secure the border. But Allred not only opposes the border wall but he called it racist and called for that wall to be torn down and in addtion he supports sanctuary cities. He opposed H.R. 2494, a bill that would have made assaulting law enforcement officers, firefighters or other first responders a deportable offense, and H.R. 3941, a bill that would have prohibited school facilities that receive federal funding from housing any illegal immigrants.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-democrats-illegal-immigration-positions-could-come-back-haunt-him-bid-oust-ted-cruz

On energy, there are millions and millions of jobs in Texas that depend on a vibrant oil and gas industry and unleashing America's full energy potentials and using America's own sources of energy is key to fight inflation. But Allred voted against Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act of 2024, a bill that would have repealed restrictions on imports and exports of oil and gas and he voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act appropriating funds for the exploration, production and importation and exportation of sources of energy like oil, minerals, etc.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/36470/97777/177357/unlocking-our-domestic-lng-potential-act-of-2024#97777

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1/all-info

Initially this was going to be one of the key Senate races of the cycle but the enthusiasm just isn't there. Allred is the wrong guy to run against Ted Cruz, Beto's campaign in 2018 was fueled by grassroots energy and excitement, Allred has a very bland DFW corporate tune that can't really echo across a state as large and diverse as Texas. Cruz isn't a very strong incumbent either, but he is in a much better position with the GOP base than he was in 2018 when he was fighting Trump in the primary. The thing is though Ted Cruz isn't an awful incumbent that has the ability to underperform Trump by a significant amount.

The biggest problem for Allred is doesn't look like Biden is even within striking distance in the lone star state and it's not like Allred is going to appeal to a significant amount of Trump voters. Unless Biden somehow comes back and not just wins the election, but actually takes Texas or gets it to an incredibly slim margin, Ted Cruz probably survives.

The math just isn't there for Texas Dems in 2024. They are going to need some insane margins and I'm talking like double digits Tarrant and D+20 Harris county to narrowly win the state, but that doesn't even account for the RGV and rurals shifting right again.

The days of ruby red Texas are over, but I think we are in the era of salmon red Texas where Rs continue to win by mid-high single digits. I'm somewhat bold and think Cruz will outrun Trump actually, and wins by 8 as opposed to Trump's 7.

I don’t think Allred is necessarily the wrong candidate, I just think TX is a really tough nut for Dems to crack because of how diverse the state is and how the population is spread out through several metros. Also agree that Allred isn’t going to have some big 5 point overperformance of Biden off of Cruz’s unpopularity. The part where I disagree is that I think Biden is within striking distance in TX, still Lean R though. Based on the 2022 results, I struggle to see how Biden does much worse than his 2020 showing.

“Rural Texas” as a collective is not guaranteed to shift right again; one fun fact is in 2020 rural Texas as defined by the census actually swung *left* from 2016 to 2020 despite RGV. And even then, TX is a pretty urban/suburban; a 5 point swing right in rural TX would be offset by a 2% shift left across urban/suburban TX.

As for the math, I’d look at net votes rather than % margins. For instance, Biden could feasibly net 50k+ votes out of Tarrant County, a County which was basically tied in 2020, or erase the 55k votes Collin and Denton collectively netted Trump in 2020. Go around the state and add these net votes up erasing the 500k+ vote deficit isn’t as hard as it may seem at face value.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It boggles the mind that the Texas Democratic Party keeps nominating candidates who are more anti-gun than your average Boston Metro West politician.  Seriously, where's the logic?

Honestly, the Dem bench in TX kinda sucks.

The reason is that Rs gerrymandered the state into oblivion, so most TX Dems represent heavily D urban packs and aren't in-touch with the state at large and have never had to win competitive elections.

And obv since TX has been R-leaning for so there aren't really former statewide Ds that can run.

Most competitive congressional/state leg races tend to be in RGV right now, but Dems who win in RGV tend to struggle to win statewide primaries as their appeal is concentrated to RGV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing worth noting is there were a clear number of Haley-Cruz voters in the primary. To be fair, Cruz didn't have any serious primary challengers, but still indicates that anti-Trump Rs might not have the same inherent problems with Cruz they do with Trump.,

In the Dem primary Allred obviously did best in the DFW area, but it generally seems like his stronger performances tended to come from urban/suburban counties across the state. Given how many votes a lot of no-name candidates got, suggests Allred still has name recognition issues he needs to work on.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It boggles the mind that the Texas Democratic Party keeps nominating candidates who are more anti-gun than your average Boston Metro West politician.  Seriously, where's the logic?

The salience of guns as an issue is higher than in Boston, so democratic primary voters who mostly hold liberal views tend to reward candidates who stake out tough positions on that issues.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've wondered if a Jason Kander-type Democrat would do well in a Texas statewide race.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I've wondered if a Jason Kander-type Democrat would do well in a Texas statewide race.

What's ironic is if Paul Sadler ran this year against Ted Cruz he would be more competitive than Allred right now.

[Ferguson97]

It boggles the mind that the Texas Democratic Party keeps nominating candidates who are more anti-gun than your average Boston Metro West politician.  Seriously, where's the logic?

Blue states already have gun control laws on the books for the most part, so there's no real reason for them to talk about it unless they're speaking to a national audience.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've wondered if a Jason Kander-type Democrat would do well in a Texas statewide race.

What's ironic is if Paul Sadler ran this year against Ted Cruz he would be more competitive than Allred right now.

Allred is tied in the polls and it's posted on his website

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status/1770148349787926648
If Ted Cruz becomes AG, Dems might get another chance to flip this seat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status/1770148349787926648
If Ted Cruz becomes AG, Dems might get another chance to flip this seat.

Ew! Trump has to lose!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status/1770148349787926648
If Ted Cruz becomes AG, Dems might get another chance to flip this seat.

Ew! Trump has to lose!

Kevin McCarthy as Chief of Staff??? Why not hire the captain from the costa Concordia to lead the navy while we’re at it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't gonna win anyways