TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[TML]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The issue Rs are having is that they're not running against Beto

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Difference is Allred is knowledgeable. Or at the very least he's not going to rant about werewolves and vampires.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

There is no constructive parallel between Walker and Allred. One is an accomplished lawyer and congressman who flipped a (then) competitive seat, the other appeared to have suffered mental decline and gave stump speeches about vampires with an unknown amount of children.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NEB 51ST SEAT, TX 52 ND AND MO IS 53RD ITS PURE WAVE INSURANCE BUT NOW ITS WINNABLE WITH ALLRED DOWN ONLY 2

[MargieCat]

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/george-soros-pours-millions-texas-090059290.html

Trump is up 8/10 pts TX but not Cruz he is leading by 2

[2016]

https://news.yahoo.com/george-soros-pours-millions-texas-090059290.html

Trump is up 8/10 pts TX but not Cruz he is leading by 2

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg poured in 100M $ to turn Florida BLUE in 2020 and it went all down the drain.

$$$$ isn't everything!

Trump & Cruz will win TX easily this year.

[robocop]

Why the f*** is that evil monster still not dead yet? I thought his youngest son was supposed to be doing all the dirty work now?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance just like MO and don't compare 2018 to 24 Abbott has a lot to do with Cruz beating Beto in 18 and 22
That's why Allred is gonna win and Gutierrez is gonna beat Cornyn in 26

I can very well see Trump winning TX and OH and MO by 5 and FL by 10 and Brown, Kunce and ALLRED win

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Good for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state by state polls are best for Biden it's not a PVI Eday that's why you can have this split voting in the H there always been Ds running up the score in red states but not so much in the S but Ds have a better chance in TX, MO, OH than MT, WV, we must be prepared to lose Tester if Sheely wins the nomination

Fischer is gone and Cruz is gone we don't know if it's Scott or Hawley as the 3 rd most vulnerable R Senator

Lean D NEB, OH, AZ
Tossup TX,MT, MO
Lean R FL

I can see Trump winning MO, OH, TX by 5 and Kunce, Brown and ALLRED winning and Tester and WV going going R, and FL going 10 pts R

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ALLRED is down by 2 but an underperforming in OH, MT, MO and TX by Trump would trigger Tester,, Brown and Kunce and ALLRED to win. We already know Scott is gonna win by 10, FL is an R state but not the others Trump may win by 5/6 pts and DeWine had to win by 20 in order for Vance to win by 5

As I said Lean D OH, AZ, Tossup MO, TX, NEB and MT Lean R FL and WV, I had TX Lean R but let's remember Cornyn is gonna have a tough race in 26 if ALLRED wins in 24 Guiterrez is definitely running in 26

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

Was 2016 really a bad year for TX Dems - it seems they overperformed expectations given Rs overperformance nationally. Dems were never remotely competitive in the TX State Supreme Court seats up that year but they did their job of preventing a GOP supermajority in the State Leg. 2016 was really the first year that Dems really realized they had possible future prospects in TX.

I agree 2020 was kind of a flop. Dems let the GOP outspend them big time which ultimately allowed the GOP to win a bunch of Biden seats in the State Leg and cost Dems a bunch of US House races. Still in hindsight I don't think Dems would've won the legislature with more investment, but it could've been close.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://news.yahoo.com/george-soros-pours-millions-texas-090059290.html

Trump is up 8/10 pts TX but not Cruz he is leading by 2

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg poured in 100M $ to turn Florida BLUE in 2020 and it went all down the drain.

$$$$ isn't everything!

Trump & Cruz will win TX easily this year.

Def think they're both favored, but I don't thing it'll be "easily":

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://news.yahoo.com/george-soros-pours-millions-texas-090059290.html

Trump is up 8/10 pts TX but not Cruz he is leading by 2

The Supreme Court was so wrong on Citizens United

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

Was 2016 really a bad year for TX Dems - it seems they overperformed expectations given Rs overperformance nationally. Dems were never remotely competitive in the TX State Supreme Court seats up that year but they did their job of preventing a GOP supermajority in the State Leg. 2016 was really the first year that Dems really realized they had possible future prospects in TX.

I agree 2020 was kind of a flop. Dems let the GOP outspend them big time which ultimately allowed the GOP to win a bunch of Biden seats in the State Leg and cost Dems a bunch of US House races. Still in hindsight I don't think Dems would've won the legislature with more investment, but it could've been close.

Hillary's campaign actually hit their goals in the metro areas, but they underestimated the significant degree of downballot lag in places like TX07 and TX32. Texas Dems really wanted those two seats but they had to wait two more years before Rs to really started feeling the suburban trends.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

Was 2016 really a bad year for TX Dems - it seems they overperformed expectations given Rs overperformance nationally. Dems were never remotely competitive in the TX State Supreme Court seats up that year but they did their job of preventing a GOP supermajority in the State Leg. 2016 was really the first year that Dems really realized they had possible future prospects in TX.

I agree 2020 was kind of a flop. Dems let the GOP outspend them big time which ultimately allowed the GOP to win a bunch of Biden seats in the State Leg and cost Dems a bunch of US House races. Still in hindsight I don't think Dems would've won the legislature with more investment, but it could've been close.

Hillary's campaign actually hit their goals in the metro areas, but they underestimated the significant degree of downballot lag in places like TX07 and TX32. Texas Dems really wanted those two seats but they had to wait two more years before Rs to really started feeling the suburban trends.

Dems didn’t even have a candidate in TX-32 which in hindsight is pretty insane given Clinton won the district

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

There was a map I saw a while back showing how taking out high vote netting dense exurbs like Montgomery and Parker Counties makes Texas a blue state.

In general the GOP self-packs in Texas; there are so many R+80 or R+90 exurbs and rural areas which is really what's keeping TX red in recent cycles. If TX rurals voted more like midwestern rurals it would be so over for the TX GOP but realistically that isn't going to happen and any Dem path to victory relies on further gains in the main metro areas.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

There was a map I saw a while back showing how taking out high vote netting dense exurbs like Montgomery and Parker Counties makes Texas a blue state.

In general the GOP self-packs in Texas; there are so many R+80 or R+90 exurbs and rural areas which is really what's keeping TX red in recent cycles. If TX rurals voted more like midwestern rurals it would be so over for the TX GOP but realistically that isn't going to happen and any Dem path to victory relies on further gains in the main metro areas.

You could make a play for Texas rural margins, but they’re so sparse (outside of a few counties) it’d be extremely resource intensive compared to working on suburban margins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can see split voting Trump winning TX and Cruz losing based on Border Security and we get NEB and lose WV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

There was a map I saw a while back showing how taking out high vote netting dense exurbs like Montgomery and Parker Counties makes Texas a blue state.

In general the GOP self-packs in Texas; there are so many R+80 or R+90 exurbs and rural areas which is really what's keeping TX red in recent cycles. If TX rurals voted more like midwestern rurals it would be so over for the TX GOP but realistically that isn't going to happen and any Dem path to victory relies on further gains in the main metro areas.

You could make a play for Texas rural margins, but they’re so sparse (outside of a few counties) it’d be extremely resource intensive compared to working on suburban margins.

This is honestly a huge, underrated advantage to Dems being a more urban/suburban party; your voters are just more geographically compact so campaigning becomes easier. Especially in a state like TX, there is a path to Dem victory that only relies on juicing up margins in the urban metros even as they're losing rurals like 90-10.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said I am divided on OH, AK, NC and TX because of Brown, Peltola, ALLRED and Stein