TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Spectator]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

Cruz set an all-time record low performance in the suburbs in 2018, doing worse than Trump himself did in 2020 in many of them. All of that against Beto O'Rourke. And this revisionist history that Beto O'Rourke was the strongest challenger ever when he didn't moderate on really anything and made the race too nationalized doesn't pass the smell test. Raising a ton of money doesn't make you a great candidate. Ask Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers.

It was close because 2018 was a blue wave, and not neccesarily because of Cruz. After all, Cruz did outrun Romney in the metro areas despite doing worse statewide 2012, he won Harris county along with Obama.

And proceeded to lose Harris County by the largest amount of any Republican in 30 years in 2018.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

Cruz set an all-time record low performance in the suburbs in 2018, doing worse than Trump himself did in 2020 in many of them. All of that against Beto O'Rourke. And this revisionist history that Beto O'Rourke was the strongest challenger ever when he didn't moderate on really anything and made the race too nationalized doesn't pass the smell test. Raising a ton of money doesn't make you a great candidate. Ask Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers.

It was close because 2018 was a blue wave, and not neccesarily because of Cruz. After all, Cruz did outrun Romney in the metro areas despite doing worse statewide 2012, he won Harris county along with Obama.

And proceeded to lose Harris County by the largest amount of any Republican in 30 years in 2018.

Cruz basically got the expected result in 2018 based on National Popular Vote + Texas's partisan lean.

Flowers and McGrath both outperformed the Presidential baseline, so I'm not sure what your point is. Flowers even gave Warnock/Abrams some coattails in his district in round 1, judging from Round 1 -> Runoff change.

Any non-Trump Republican would do better than Trump in Texas, Ken Paxton included. Texas isn't going to be competitive post-Dobbs, and Biden's campaign knows it.

[Spectator]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

Cruz set an all-time record low performance in the suburbs in 2018, doing worse than Trump himself did in 2020 in many of them. All of that against Beto O'Rourke. And this revisionist history that Beto O'Rourke was the strongest challenger ever when he didn't moderate on really anything and made the race too nationalized doesn't pass the smell test. Raising a ton of money doesn't make you a great candidate. Ask Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers.

It was close because 2018 was a blue wave, and not neccesarily because of Cruz. After all, Cruz did outrun Romney in the metro areas despite doing worse statewide 2012, he won Harris county along with Obama.

And proceeded to lose Harris County by the largest amount of any Republican in 30 years in 2018.

Cruz basically got the expected result in 2018 based on National Popular Vote + Texas's partisan lean.

Flowers and McGrath both outperformed the Presidential baseline, so I'm not sure what your point is. Flowers even gave Warnock/Abrams some coattails in his district in round 1, judging from Round 1 -> Runoff change.

Any non-Trump Republican would do better than Trump in Texas, Ken Paxton included. Texas isn't going to be competitive post-Dobbs, and Biden's campaign knows it.

Something tells me you’ll happily bring up the Texas midterm results (which frankly weren’t even that good for a midterm with a Dem President) and use that as an example of why Texas is Safe R, yet probably will dismiss out of hand the results in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, etc as not predictive.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

Cruz set an all-time record low performance in the suburbs in 2018, doing worse than Trump himself did in 2020 in many of them. All of that against Beto O'Rourke. And this revisionist history that Beto O'Rourke was the strongest challenger ever when he didn't moderate on really anything and made the race too nationalized doesn't pass the smell test. Raising a ton of money doesn't make you a great candidate. Ask Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers.

It was close because 2018 was a blue wave, and not neccesarily because of Cruz. After all, Cruz did outrun Romney in the metro areas despite doing worse statewide 2012, he won Harris county along with Obama.

And proceeded to lose Harris County by the largest amount of any Republican in 30 years in 2018.

Cruz basically got the expected result in 2018 based on National Popular Vote + Texas's partisan lean.

Flowers and McGrath both outperformed the Presidential baseline, so I'm not sure what your point is. Flowers even gave Warnock/Abrams some coattails in his district in round 1, judging from Round 1 -> Runoff change.

Any non-Trump Republican would do better than Trump in Texas, Ken Paxton included. Texas isn't going to be competitive post-Dobbs, and Biden's campaign knows it.

Something tells me you’ll happily bring up the Texas midterm results (which frankly weren’t even that good for a midterm with a Dem President) and use that as an example of why Texas is Safe R, yet probably will dismiss out of hand the results in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, etc as not predictive.

It isn't so much the midterms as it is that Texas is far more pro-life than swing states. The issue environment has changed from COVID to abortion, and I can't see this benefitting Democrats in Texas. At the House level, it basically was as R as Florida.

Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. generally had quite weak candidates. In polls where Trump was included with Lake or Oz, he usually ran way ahead of them.

[Roll Roons]

At the House level, it basically was as R as Florida.

There were six seats where no Democrat ran, but Republicans fielded candidates in every district. If you're talking about aggregate house popular vote, you do have to account for that.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

At the House level, it basically was as R as Florida.

There were six seats where no Democrat ran, but Republicans fielded candidates in every district. If you're talking about aggregate house popular vote, you do have to account for that.

Split Ticket does account for that in their SHAVE scores. Without adjusting for undecideds, I think FL was R +19 and TX was R +20.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every swing state voted to left of FLORIDA

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
https://twitter.com/RolandForTexas/status/1731681301843914971?t=I7pxMDJ358OtQrxY...
https://twitter.com/ColinAllredTX/status/1730270015700533333?t=U0IcMkErUa5R4FeMo...

[Comrade Funk]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
https://twitter.com/RolandForTexas/status/1731681301843914971?t=I7pxMDJ358OtQrxY...
https://twitter.com/ColinAllredTX/status/1730270015700533333?t=U0IcMkErUa5R4FeMo...

I think it's ed to keep doing school shooting drills, but I guess those tweets are just a step too far

[Lambsbread]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.

Yeah I wonder why they would be so obsessed with it

[TML]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
[...]

Polling does not support gun control being political kryptonite in TX. For example, exit polls from 2022 for the TX gubernatorial race showed majority support for stricter gun laws (55% in favor according to Edison Research, 51% in favor according to Fox News' Voter Analysis).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
[...]

Polling does not support gun control being political kryptonite in TX. For example, exit polls from 2022 for the TX gubernatorial race showed majority support for stricter gun laws (55% in favor according to Edison Research, 51% in favor according to Fox News' Voter Analysis).

The thing with polls like this, is people claim to support it but when push come to shove they just don't trust Democrats with the issue. Beto's campaign was DOA after his AR-15 comments, and even Uvalde swung R in 2022. It's not even like Dems need to constantly focus on being pro-gun, but at this point its apparent that TX Dems focus on gun control even more than the national party which is possibly the reason they are struggling so badly. It doesn't cost them anything to shut up about it, but instead you see people like Roland Gutierrez make it the signature issue of their campaign.

Everytime a school shooting happens, Dems only focus on gun control. There is no bipartisan effort to tackle mental health or improve school security (ie more officers, bullet proof doors), and just scream "its the guns" until they go blue in the face and nothing happens until the next cycle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are 4 seats now in play as upsets potential FL, TX, NEB and MO, the user Pred has OH and MT going R, they aren't WVA

[Unelectable Bystander]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
[...]

Polling does not support gun control being political kryptonite in TX. For example, exit polls from 2022 for the TX gubernatorial race showed majority support for stricter gun laws (55% in favor according to Edison Research, 51% in favor according to Fox News' Voter Analysis).

The thing with polls like this, is people claim to support it but when push come to shove they just don't trust Democrats with the issue. Beto's campaign was DOA after his AR-15 comments, and even Uvalde swung R in 2022. It's not even like Dems need to constantly focus on being pro-gun, but at this point its apparent that TX Dems focus on gun control even more than the national party which is possibly the reason they are struggling so badly. It doesn't cost them anything to shut up about it, but instead you see people like Roland Gutierrez make it the signature issue of their campaign.

Everytime a school shooting happens, Dems only focus on gun control. There is no bipartisan effort to tackle mental health or improve school security (ie more officers, bullet proof doors), and just scream "its the guns" until they go blue in the face and nothing happens until the next cycle.

2022 exit polls

Who do you trust more to handle gun policy?
Abbott 53-44

Are Beto’s views too extreme?
Yes 52-45

Are Abbott’s views too extreme?
No 53-44

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
[...]

Polling does not support gun control being political kryptonite in TX. For example, exit polls from 2022 for the TX gubernatorial race showed majority support for stricter gun laws (55% in favor according to Edison Research, 51% in favor according to Fox News' Voter Analysis).

The thing with polls like this, is people claim to support it but when push come to shove they just don't trust Democrats with the issue. Beto's campaign was DOA after his AR-15 comments, and even Uvalde swung R in 2022. It's not even like Dems need to constantly focus on being pro-gun, but at this point its apparent that TX Dems focus on gun control even more than the national party which is possibly the reason they are struggling so badly. It doesn't cost them anything to shut up about it, but instead you see people like Roland Gutierrez make it the signature issue of their campaign.

Everytime a school shooting happens, Dems only focus on gun control. There is no bipartisan effort to tackle mental health or improve school security (ie more officers, bullet proof doors), and just scream "its the guns" until they go blue in the face and nothing happens until the next cycle.

2022 exit polls

Who do you trust more to handle gun policy?
Abbott 53-44

Are Beto’s views too extreme?
Yes 52-45

Are Abbott’s views too extreme?
No 53-44

Beto isn't an NFL linebacker and OH, FL, NC and TX are upset potentially but is immigration reform an issue in TX and FL too it cuts both ways Rs are against immigration reform but supports Natl security

We don't know what's gonna happen when we vote maps are blank but Biden is at 45 not 60 or 39 meaning it's a 303 map with wave insurance

[Reactionary Libertarian]

This poll by Emerson shows a close race:
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2024-poll-allred-leads-democratic-senate-primary-plurality-are-undecided/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will burst out laugh when Scott and Cruz lose because Rs thought it was over when Cruz was up 16 no it wasn't over

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Texas goes D before Montana.

[President Johnson]

This poll by Emerson shows a close race:
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2024-poll-allred-leads-democratic-senate-primary-plurality-are-undecided/

The undecideds are too high here. I'm not seein this one flipping yet, though easily the most likely Democratic pickup out of a dim 2024 map.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

This poll by Emerson shows a close race:
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2024-poll-allred-leads-democratic-senate-primary-plurality-are-undecided/

The undecideds are too high here. I'm not seein this one flipping yet, though easily the most likely Democratic pickup out of a dim 2024 map.

Yes, but I think it's important that Cruz isn't close to 50.

[patzer]

Hot take: Texas goes D before Montana.

It's a presidential election year, split ticket voting tends to be much less nowadays, and Texas is a lot bluer than Montana. This isn't really a hot take

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race was the TN 2006 race but ALLRED may actually win

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I got an ad from Julie Johnson (running for office in TX-32) where she calls herself a progressive fighter. It's kind of funny, because if anything I'm not the kind of person enamored with that sort of branding. Not good targetting lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hawley and Cruz are the most endangered Rs

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.