TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chiefs are the Favs to win the Superbowl but we don't know how long their slump they had a similar slump in 21 and they recovered but if COWBOYS do win the Superbowl obviously it favors ALLRED, they have to beat the Eagles not just the Giants and then the Chiefs

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Blexas believers are going to be very disappointed on November 5, 2024.

You say that as if nearly every comment in this thread doesn't mention of how this seat won't flip Dem in 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129
It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

It wouldn't be if Cornyn was the incumbent in the race. However, Ted Cruz is widely disliked by pretty much everyone in Texas politics, and average voters too. I'm also not sure MAGA types have forgiven him for running against Trump in 2016 yet, either. I think Cruz losing is possible, even if Biden fails to carry Texas.

Ted Cruz’s approval ratings have bounced back a good deal from 2018.

Blexas believers are going to be very disappointed on November 5, 2024.

Tbf there's a difference between believing Texas *can* go blue with proper campaigning vs it will go blue.

I'm someone in the camp of Dems can win TX in 2024 if they run a proper campaign and are doing ok nationally, but for now Trump and Cruz are both favored.

Anyone who is completely writing off a 40 EV state that was only R+5.58 in the 2020 election and has generally been shifting left is a bigger problem imo. Even if it ultimately doesn't flip in 2024, very good chance it's closer than 2020 and will finally get a title of a true swing state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129
It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

It wouldn't be if Cornyn was the incumbent in the race. However, Ted Cruz is widely disliked by pretty much everyone in Texas politics, and average voters too. I'm also not sure MAGA types have forgiven him for running against Trump in 2016 yet, either. I think Cruz losing is possible, even if Biden fails to carry Texas.

Also Cornyn was still held under 10 points when Ds didn't invest anything in TX against a relatively inoffensive incumbent. Hegar got more votes than Trump 2016. Cornyn's performance was solid, but also wasn't anything amazing, and downballot statewide Ds that don't invest have only lagged a few points behind the Pres margin.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

It wouldn't be if Cornyn was the incumbent in the race. However, Ted Cruz is widely disliked by pretty much everyone in Texas politics, and average voters too. I'm also not sure MAGA types have forgiven him for running against Trump in 2016 yet, either. I think Cruz losing is possible, even if Biden fails to carry Texas.

MAGA types are more likely to care about Cruz voting for Ukraine aid than him running against Trump 8 years ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance and as I said many times don't underestimate Ds in OH, NC, TX and FL there are blk and Brown voting in red and blue STATES

[Torrain]

I see Cruz has received the only endorsement that really matters:
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1713224119313916201

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are all R favored but ALLRED can have a upset, of Valarie McCrary is only 9 down

[President Johnson]

I see Cruz has received the only endorsement that really matters:
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1713224119313916201

I knew Truss was bad, but this bad... oof.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance but the closer we get til Eday Trump polls are gonna deteriorating, they are now only R polls have always given Trump the lead and in 22 they labeled highly partisan polls

TX, FL, OH , NC, AK and KS are swing states and MI, PA and WI are blue States

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1713658082142691614

I knew it from the start. Being the Democrat running against Ted Cruz was always going to make Allred a magnet for #resistance types.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ALLRED is a Football star that doesn't have the baggage of Walker and if I was Gianforte I would be nervous about Busse, these should be slam dunks just like OH, but even OH isn't safe with Brown, Change has Brown down only 2 and Change has Biden within 5

Nate Silver Pred a 51/49 S AZ, OH, MT and TX, the punditry is gonna have to move it out of Safe R to Tossup

[Comrade Funk]

Well regardless of what happens, Allred is 100x better than freakin' MJ Hegar.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On Facebook Powell is up by 1 and Rodriguez is up by 1 , that's why I changed my map to include FL and TX these aren't TX and FL, OH, NC of 2004 it's 2024

I made FL 90 percentage pts but will change it to 50 percentage pts once the score and Eday arrives

[Xing]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

[Lambsbread]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

2018 was the best opportunity to flip this seat and Beto was as good a candidate as anyone, so I remain skeptical about this seat flipping just yet. I think this may be the last cycle that Cruz hangs on and he retires before 2030 because he'll see the writing on the wall.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

2018 was the best opportunity to flip this seat and Beto was as good a candidate as anyone, so I remain skeptical about this seat flipping just yet. I think this may be the last cycle that Cruz hangs on and he retires before 2030 because he'll see the writing on the wall.

The frustrating thing about Texas is Democrats can win, and “have” just not at the same time. Mixing the 2016/2018 coalition with the 2020 coalition should have democrats win, or come winning spitting distance.

[Mr. Smith]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

2018 was the best opportunity to flip this seat and Beto was as good a candidate as anyone, so I remain skeptical about this seat flipping just yet. I think this may be the last cycle that Cruz hangs on and he retires before 2030 because he'll see the writing on the wall.

The frustrating thing about Texas is Democrats can win, and “have” just not at the same time. Mixing the 2016/2018 coalition with the 2020 coalition should have democrats win, or come winning spitting distance.

Pretty much what happened with Georgia from 2008-2018 until 2020 came around.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't poll TX

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

[Xing]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

ITX is pro Guns that's  why it's pro Cruz and  ALLRED is liberal in Guns that's why ALLRED may lose

[Tekken_Guy]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

[Spectator]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

Cruz set an all-time record low performance in the suburbs in 2018, doing worse than Trump himself did in 2020 in many of them. All of that against Beto O'Rourke. And this revisionist history that Beto O'Rourke was the strongest challenger ever when he didn't moderate on really anything and made the race too nationalized doesn't pass the smell test. Raising a ton of money doesn't make you a great candidate. Ask Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

Cruz set an all-time record low performance in the suburbs in 2018, doing worse than Trump himself did in 2020 in many of them. All of that against Beto O'Rourke. And this revisionist history that Beto O'Rourke was the strongest challenger ever when he didn't moderate on really anything and made the race too nationalized doesn't pass the smell test. Raising a ton of money doesn't make you a great candidate. Ask Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers.

It was close because 2018 was a blue wave, and not neccesarily because of Cruz. After all, Cruz did outrun Romney in the metro areas despite doing worse statewide 2012, he won Harris county along with Obama.