TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Roll Roons]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

Yeah, if Texas goes blue there's almost no way Arizona and Georgia don't. Without those three states, the absolute Republican ceiling is 262: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZWbQQ

[Spectator]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

Yeah, if Texas goes blue there's almost no way Arizona and Georgia don't. Without those three states, the absolute Republican ceiling is 262: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZWbQQ

And even that’s being the most optimistic. I think people way overread the trends of Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota after Trump got close in 2016. They seem as solidly Democrat as they’ve ever been ever since.

[The Mikado]

I have a feeling this primary will break heavily along racial and regional lines.

Assuming both Allred and Gutierrez both remain viable candidates, I'd expect Gutierrez to sweep basically all of the border, the panhandle, and generally most heavily Hispanic communities throughout the state. Allred I suspect will do better in the cities, particularly amongst white liberals and black voters. Also prolly gets a regional boost in Dallas.

That's a recipe for a 70-30ish Allred win in the primary. Hispanic voter turnout in Dem primaries is atrocious.

[President Johnson]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

Well, 2016 plus at least Nevada would be barely enough, though when Texas is flipping, it's almost certainly Arizona and/or Georgia also go blue, which is indeed closing any path to 270. However, I believe we're not there yet.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

As Texas suprême court officeholder are Elected, as soon as the dems elect a majority of them they will strike down the maps right?

For 3 election cycles yes, but what Texas flipping would set of a massive realignment and make the maps and coalition unrecognizable 10-12 years after that happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

Well, 2016 plus at least Nevada would be barely enough, though when Texas is flipping, it's almost certainly Arizona and/or Georgia also go blue, which is indeed closing any path to 270. However, I believe we're not there yet.

You know 52/46 is wave Insurance map  Obama and Biden won 52/46 in 2008 it's not 60/40 to win wave insurance seats we won the PVI in 20 81(74/3 a duplicate turnout will give us TX and we won't know until I t 24 did you know Obama and Biden didn't win FL and OH until Sept 2012 Sandy they were behind to Rent that's why it's called wave Insurance FL is in play since Scott is t up 10 he is up 4 every Edays isn't the same 303 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

As Texas suprême court officeholder are Elected, as soon as the dems elect a majority of them they will strike down the maps right?

For 3 election cycles yes, but what Texas flipping would set of a massive realignment and make the maps and coalition unrecognizable 10-12 years after that happens.

Lol you had Fetterman losing with Shapiro you shouldn't have listened to that Insider Advantage poll that said Oz was up 5 and Marist had Fetterman up 5

A 303 state MI. PA, and WI isn't Lean R unless a PPP poll or Marist says it and POS have Ds ahead in all of them

We can win TX in Oct 24 that's why it's called wave insurance not a 303 state

Since I am rooting for Ds not Rs I will put wave insurance on my map what if FL and NC the first two states come in for Biden like it did in 2012 all the pundits said Romney was gonna win OH and FL they were wrong  in 2012 even Nate Silver said Biden would win IA, PA for 272 not OH and FL what happened Obama and Biden won

[BigZuck08]

Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said blue waves don't happen 16 MNTHS and a blue wave is 52/46 mot 60/40 that's what Obama gotten in 2008/12 and Biden win 50/45 in 20 but Rs overpolled in 20 Trump ran up the deficit with stimulus checks 1.8 T and didn't raise taxes on the rich

No Rs are gutting ever entitlement and we haven't fully recovered from Great Pandemic Great Recession

Of course I can make a 303 map but many users were wrong last time when they Predicted Oz to win I don't copy

[MATTROSE94]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

As Texas suprême court officeholder are Elected, as soon as the dems elect a majority of them they will strike down the maps right?

I think Greg Abbott will certify Texas for Donald Trump even if Joe Biden ends up winning the state by a Franklin Roosevelt 1936 style margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance but the reason why Beto lost in 2018/22 he stutters and it showed in 20 Prez debates and Buttigieg took his thunder ALLRED is a great debaters like Obama was so I wouldn't assume it's Safe R wave insurance means more than 303 ALLRED is running against Cruz not Abbott

Users think ALLRED is running against Abbott he's not he's running against Cruz that won by 2 points, just like Scott isn't Rubio he won by 1.5 pts

[BigZuck08]

Likely R, this is also the Democrats best pickup opportunity outside of Arizona.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know its Lean R and as I have said we are running against Cruz not Abbott whom will never be defeated

[Roll Roons]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/08/16/could_ted_cruz_lose_reelection_149629.html

Sean Trende's argument for why Cruz might be in more trouble than people think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know Cruz is doomed the question has always been with split voting it's a 303 map but can wave insurance candidates win if Biden doesn't carry the state and Brown is already doing it because LaRose is so unpopular

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/08/16/could_ted_cruz_lose_reelection_149629.html

Sean Trende's argument for why Cruz might be in more trouble than people think.

I hope he is right.

[Ferguson97]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

In an election where Republicans lose Texas, yes, they have no path to victory. But Texas turning blue in one cycle wouldn't make it become permanently blue overnight, it would become a swing state (probably THE swing state).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

In an election where Republicans lose Texas, yes, they have no path to victory. But Texas turning blue in one cycle wouldn't make it become permanently blue overnight, it would become a swing state (probably THE swing state).

This is true.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz and Scott are only up by 5 and last time Abbott, DeSantis and Rubio were up by Double digits that seems winnable to me

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1699028647305154853?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129

It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129

It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129
It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

It wouldn't be if Cornyn was the incumbent in the race. However, Ted Cruz is widely disliked by pretty much everyone in Texas politics, and average voters too. I'm also not sure MAGA types have forgiven him for running against Trump in 2016 yet, either. I think Cruz losing is possible, even if Biden fails to carry Texas.

[Meatball Slayer]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129
It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

It wouldn't be if Cornyn was the incumbent in the race. However, Ted Cruz is widely disliked by pretty much everyone in Texas politics, and average voters too. I'm also not sure MAGA types have forgiven him for running against Trump in 2016 yet, either. I think Cruz losing is possible, even if Biden fails to carry Texas.

Ted Cruz’s approval ratings have bounced back a good deal from 2018.

Blexas believers are going to be very disappointed on November 5, 2024.

[Senator Incitatus]

How will the Cowboys game affect this race?