TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a blog and user PRED this isn't a ratings PRED and what happened to Rs winning 240 H seats and 63 Sen seats Cook and Sabato losing ratings were wrong

[Atlas Force]

So who could run in the 32nd to succeed him?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So who could run in the 32nd to succeed him?

As far as state legislators go there’s Nathan Johnson in the senate and about a half dozen state representatives that could run for it. Maybe the Mayor Johnson, but he’s had issues with the council so I doubt he’ll get much support. Maybe Amanda Reichek, she ran for the state Supreme Court and is a judge in Dallas.

[Atlas Force]

So who could run in the 32nd to succeed him?

As far as state legislators go there’s Nathan Johnson in the senate and about a half dozen state representatives that could run for it. Maybe the Mayor Johnson, but he’s had issues with the council so I doubt he’ll get much support. Maybe Amanda Reichek, she ran for the state Supreme Court and is a judge in Dallas.

Oh wow, we could get the Dragon Ball composer guy in Congress!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Defeating an incumbent like Pete Sessions by the margin he did in 2018 was no small feat (John Culberson barely campaigned against Lizzie Fletcher and lost by less). If he can stave off additional bleeding with Hispanic voters I think there's an argument to be made that this could be the cycle's closest Senate race, percentage-wise.

Allred won by 6.5% in a Clinton+2 seat in a blue wave year. Not a bad performance at all, but I wouldn't call it impressive either and I doubt Pete Sessions of all people was some beloved incumbent.

[Lincoln Project]

Defeating an incumbent like Pete Sessions by the margin he did in 2018 was no small feat (John Culberson barely campaigned against Lizzie Fletcher and lost by less). If he can stave off additional bleeding with Hispanic voters I think there's an argument to be made that this could be the cycle's closest Senate race, percentage-wise.

Then again, Colin underperformed Biden by 5 in 2020. He is a generic party-line gun-grabbing Democrat who has no appeal to any swing demographics, though I am not writing him off completely.

[Pollster]

Defeating an incumbent like Pete Sessions by the margin he did in 2018 was no small feat (John Culberson barely campaigned against Lizzie Fletcher and lost by less). If he can stave off additional bleeding with Hispanic voters I think there's an argument to be made that this could be the cycle's closest Senate race, percentage-wise.

Allred won by 6.5% in a Clinton+2 seat in a blue wave year. Not a bad performance at all, but I wouldn't call it impressive either and I doubt Pete Sessions of all people was some beloved incumbent.

Sessions may not have been beloved but he certainly wasn't controversial and as a longtime incumbent  with no major scandals was absolutely no pushover. Allred barely outspent him and though outside spending favored Allred his incumbency advantage should have kept this race closer.

[Pollster]

Defeating an incumbent like Pete Sessions by the margin he did in 2018 was no small feat (John Culberson barely campaigned against Lizzie Fletcher and lost by less). If he can stave off additional bleeding with Hispanic voters I think there's an argument to be made that this could be the cycle's closest Senate race, percentage-wise.

Then again, Colin underperformed Biden by 5 in 2020. He is a generic party-line gun-grabbing Democrat who has no appeal to any swing demographics, though I am not writing him off completely.

Interestingly (I actually didn't know this before today) Allred was narrowly outraised and outspent in 2020 by a Republican establishment-friendly white woman and got virtually no outside group help while she got ~$1 million. It's not surprising at all that he underperformed Biden given those circumstances and probably should have done a tick worse than he did.

[TML]

Jessica Taylor had some of the worst hot takes in 2022 so I can't say I'm surprised but still, it's just baffling that these people get paid for this analysis.

The race is by no means a tossup but acting as if putting it to "likely republican" is a big move is just moronic

Remember that GA-SEN 2020 (the seat that Perdue occupied at the time) was considered Likely R for a significant portion of that election cycle - it was only during the closing weeks/days before Election Day that the race actually moved toward the "tossup" category.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/colinallredtx/status/1653727403536183301?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

"We don't have to be embarrassed by our Senator" is the kind of line more Dems need to be using.

[DrScholl]

Probability based predictions are junk as are history based ones. The prognosticators failed in 2022 because they ignored polling that showed Republicans very weak on the generic ballot and relied totally on previous cycles being waves for the opposition. Texas is trending Democratic faster than a lot of people want to admit and 2024 could be the year that the dam breaks.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/colinallredtx/status/1653727403536183301?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Endorsed!

While Cruz is favored, the Democrats should get all in here with their efforts. Even if Allred falls short, a strong performance may help to flip seats in the House and at the state level.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The S number will wind up where the PVI since it's gonna be a 52/46 PVI and the same 81/74 M vote as 20 we net TX and MO and lose WV plus 5/17 seats in the H


The reasons why we can net a 380 not 303 map with the same 82/74 M because we lost 8 seats in the H we are gonna gain seats in the H users are confused about

I did the math already

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fletcher already endorsed Allred.

[wbrocks67]

Launch video has 4.5M views on Twitter already.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

1. Because he could pull off an upset. People said what they are saying about this race regarding GA 2020, and we know how that turned out.

2. It could help build name recognition ahead of a bid for Governor or another run for Senate in 2026.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

1. Because he could pull off an upset. People said what they are saying about this race regarding GA 2020, and we know how that turned out.

2. It could help build name recognition ahead of a bid for Governor or another run for Senate in 2026.

It absolutely could end up being an upset, but its rare for people to give up their house seat for the potential of one. In GA 2020 Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock didn't have any elected position they were risking when they ran. I think it has potential to build name rec but in a Presidential year the senate races get overshadowed a lot especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. Running in a midterm year is better for building name recognition since then its the signature race on the ballot.

[Roll Roons]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

Even if it's a longshot for Allred, it's still within the realm of possibility that he wins. If he wins, he would for sure be an instant top contender for president or vice president. Maybe he thinks it's worth it for that alone.

[Atlas Force]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

Iirc Beto made a term limit pledge, so there was also the fact that he was leaving the House anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

Even if it's a longshot for Allred, it's still within the realm of possibility that he wins. If he wins, he would for sure be an instant top contender for president or vice president. Maybe he thinks it's worth it for that alone.

Peltola is beating Sullivan, Beshesr is beating Cameron and Presley is within 3 of Reeves we can certainly win red states it depends on outcome of S Govs and Biden is leading Trump and DeSantis 5/10 pts 3o3 isn't enshrined in the Constitution but 538 is blue avatars think we can't win the red states that Clinton and Obama with Biden as Veep won already and Carter, Truman and LBJ and Wilson and FDR won

Get off this red state last forever I told Vosem that when he said that Peltola wasn't really leading Sullivan and Begich won in 2008 and Walker won as an Indy there are blk and Latino that vote D this isn't red TX of 2000/2004 that Bush W won by double digits sane with OH it's not 2004 OH and this isn't WI of 2004 either

[Spectator]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

There’s zero shot Allred didn’t conduct internal polling and liked what he saw.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The discussion going on in this thread really highlights the odd predicament right now for a Democratic candidate in Texas.

On one hand, a prominent candidate like Allred would do wonders to boost confidence for the state party and move forward the future potential of Texas as a purple or even blue state. Much like Beto in 2018.

On the other hand, folks are confused or possibly adverse to the idea that a prominent Dem would step up and sacrifice themselves for a seat they think has no chance of flipping.

I guess what I'm getting at is that you can't just will a state like Texas or Georgia into flipping. You need folks like Allred and Warnock to step up and put the effort in.

[Spectator]

The discussion going on in this thread really highlights the odd predicament right now for a Democratic candidate in Texas.

On one hand, a prominent candidate like Allred would do wonders to boost confidence for the state party and move forward the future potential of Texas as a purple or even blue state. Much like Beto in 2018.

On the other hand, folks are confused or possibly adverse to the idea that a prominent Dem would step up and sacrifice themselves for a seat they think has no chance of flipping.

I guess what I'm getting at is that you can't just will a state like Texas or Georgia into flipping. You need folks like Allred and Warnock to step up and take a crack at it.

People said the same thing about Arizona leading up to 2018 and same thing about Georgia leading up to 2020. Now it’s Texas’s turn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have won red states before Wilson, FDR, Truman, JFk, LBJ, Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden before 20 GA and AZ were red states so Biden did turn Red states blue

I remember French Republican, MT Treasure said Perdue was gonna beat Ossoff because GA was a red state we know whom French Rep is Cathrina or that Green avatar Forumluker

Forumluker disappointed too and sports a Green avatar I don't care about alias but they have similar personality