TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I take it this is gonna be one of those threads where every other post has to include something to the effect of "This seat won't flip, but..."?

Waves don't happen 19nths out but Bush W was blowing out Gore around this time in 1999 it got close at the end due to Drunk Driving charge

At any rate we still have to vote as always MS and LA G aren't over are ALLRED and Presley and Wilson Dogs they sure are but so are the Dubs or Golden States and they are defying conventional wisdom again, Celts were supposed to win last time, but Curry and blk women like Obama and ALLRED have strong blk women wives

That's what poor people campaign and Cebter Street Pac is about donate for non inc D Senators, you can donate to either one for wave insurance candidates

FL isn't a done deal Biden was tied in FL at 44 with Trump a month ago in March

We aren't gonna sweep the S Govs but Rs may only win 1, that is bad news these are R 22 states heading into 24 red states are turning purple

[GeorgiaModerate]

I take it this is gonna be one of those threads where every other post has to include something to the effect of "This seat won't flip, but..."?

Sounds more Tennessee or Missouri to me

Those two were moving rightward.  Texas isn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I take it this is gonna be one of those threads where every other post has to include something to the effect of "This seat won't flip, but..."?

Sounds more Tennessee or Missouri to me

Those two were moving rightward.  Texas isn't.
[/quote
The Rs are having trouble in KY G and the IAN BUMP HELPED THE RS FROM LOSING IN WI ESPECIALLY THERE WOULD OF BEEN A 52)48 SEN HAD IT NOT BEEN FOR IAN BUMP BUT EVERY  SWING STATE Including MO MOVED LEFTWARD AND FL MOVED RIGHTWARD

IF IT WAS A 303 MAP THEN Laura Kelly, Mary Peltola shouldn't have win and Beshesr is leading for reelection

MO is winnable Kander came within 3 of Blunt in 2016

Split vote Ashcroft, Caputo and Gianforte will win Easily and Braun

[GALeftist]

Allred and Guttierez would both be great recruits. Allred would likely overperform in DFW and Guttierez would in the RGV, only thing is Dems need to do well in both and we can only run one candidate. ill reserve making a judgment till they both announce and see how they do with the voters.

Allred is the better of the two, my hot take is they will both underperform in the RGV relative to the past. I think its a sinking ship down there for Democrats and Cruz has the right personality.

This seat won't flip regardless. Allred has a record that is not going to jibe well in 2024, Gutierrez is too progressive for the state. I do think Gutierrez is a phenomenal public speaker though.

Oh, they definitely will, Rs registered a ton of new Republican voters there in recent years, and 2022 showed that the RGV is not going back to how it voted prior to 2020. However not getting totally crushed is important there are quite a few counties there with lots of voters.

 I believe Guttieriez can do significantly better than Biden and Beto did in 2020 and 2022 but the days of hitting 70% plus in those counties are over. Not sure how Allred would do there but he likely doesn't have the same appeal as Guttieriez does, he may outrun Biden their but probably not significantly.

I unironically think Cruz wins by 7 or so this cycle. Whether its Gutierrez or Allred. I really think Allred will collapse pretty horribly if he runs, he should wait it out another cycle.

This seems exceedingly unlikely to me. Biden would probably have to be doing Hillary level bad nationally to lose Texas by 7, and even then Cruz would be likely to underperform.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is leading by 5)10 pts that is blue wave potential but it's not gonna happen 19 months out all the waves happen ,19 days out and Rs got a bump with Tsunami IAN just like Obama got a bump with Sandy in 2012.


But, I am so glad the DeSantis phenomenon is over what damage would he have done with cutting more taxes for the rich if he ever became Prez

[henster]

I like Gutierrez a lot better as a candidate here as a state pol it's easier for him to distance himself from the national party, run as an outsider and paint Cruz as a Washington insider. Allred is just another DC Dem who has voted the party line.

[Spectator]

I think Gutierrez would be stronger, but his gun rhetoric is probably poison among the swath of Trump voters he needs to convince to vote for him or to abstain.

Allred probably is seeing promising polling data if he’s deciding to turn down his career in a safe House seat for this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allred is gonna be the nominee, just like he is stepping over John Love, John Love couldn't beat Cruz, do users know how many Blks are in Dallas compared to Latinos in Houston, El Paso and San Antonio alot more

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allred definitely in

https://news.yahoo.com/former-nfl-player-texas-dem-122141891.html

Mr Sen

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/colinallredtx/status/1653727403536183301?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Endorsed we need Reparations

Will donate to him for sure I go to a blk churchyoo it will be like Tithes

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/colinallredtx/status/1653727403536183301?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

And now we begin to pray for a miracle.

[wbrocks67]

This makes absolutely no sense. Trump only won TX by 5, Cruz only won by 2.5. TX has continued to move slightly left since then, and Trump is arguably less popular than he was in 2020 at this point

"prez year" does not mean for TX what it meant in 2012. The fact that it would likely be within <5% means it *is* competitive

this is complete pundit galaxy brain

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1653759536086364165

[Sir Mohamed]

This makes absolutely no sense. Trump only won TX by 5, Cruz only won by 2.5. TX has continued to move slightly left since then, and Trump is arguably less popular than he was in 2020 at this point

"prez year" does not mean for TX what it meant in 2012. The fact that it would likely be within <5% means it *is* competitive

this is complete pundit galaxy brain

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1653759536086364165

Cook always had weird ratings. Even I think TX-Sen is only Lean R as we speak, especially with Allred now in the race.

[Zedonathin2020]

This makes absolutely no sense. Trump only won TX by 5, Cruz only won by 2.5. TX has continued to move slightly left since then, and Trump is arguably less popular than he was in 2020 at this point

"prez year" does not mean for TX what it meant in 2012. The fact that it would likely be within <5% means it *is* competitive

this is complete pundit galaxy brain

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1653759536086364165

Cook always had weird ratings. Even I think TX-Sen is only Lean R as we speak, especially with Allred now in the race.

One could Unironically say it’s "Titanium" Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This makes absolutely no sense. Trump only won TX by 5, Cruz only won by 2.5. TX has continued to move slightly left since then, and Trump is arguably less popular than he was in 2020 at this point

"prez year" does not mean for TX what it meant in 2012. The fact that it would likely be within <5% means it *is* competitive


Mary Peltola is beating Sullivan as always we still have to vote and Trump is gonna have more indictments coming which solidify his top spot for nominated but bad for GE strategy

[Spectator]

This makes absolutely no sense. Trump only won TX by 5, Cruz only won by 2.5. TX has continued to move slightly left since then, and Trump is arguably less popular than he was in 2020 at this point

"prez year" does not mean for TX what it meant in 2012. The fact that it would likely be within <5% means it *is* competitive

this is complete pundit galaxy brain

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1653759536086364165

Cook was the same people that thought Georgia in 2020 was a pipe dream for Democrats. Amy Walter wrote a famous column about it.

I’m sure Colin Allred didn’t just wake up and decide to challenge Ted Cruz out of the blue. I guarantee you he polled the race and liked what he saw. Otherwise he wouldn’t have given up a safe House seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This makes absolutely no sense. Trump only won TX by 5, Cruz only won by 2.5. TX has continued to move slightly left since then, and Trump is arguably less popular than he was in 2020 at this point

"prez year" does not mean for TX what it meant in 2012. The fact that it would likely be within <5% means it *is* competitive

this is complete pundit galaxy brain

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1653759536086364165

Mary Peltola is leading in red states AK v Sullivanthat proves that we can win red states and Presley is only down 3

[wbrocks67]

Jessica Taylor had some of the worst hot takes in 2022 so I can't say I'm surprised but still, it's just baffling that these people get paid for this analysis.

The race is by no means a tossup but acting as if putting it to "likely republican" is a big move is just moronic

[Lincoln Project]

Endorsed we need Reparations

Will donate to him for sure I go to a blk churchyoo it will be like Tithes

“Reparations” are a nonsensical sham.

[Lincoln Project]

Jessica Taylor had some of the worst hot takes in 2022 so I can't say I'm surprised but still, it's just baffling that these people get paid for this analysis.

The race is by no means a tossup but acting as if putting it to "likely republican" is a big move is just moronic

It could be probability-based, rather than margin-based.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Endorsed we need Reparations

Will donate to him for sure I go to a blk churchyoo it will be like Tithes

“Reparations” are a nonsensical sham.

I am Choctaw Indian and I qualify for Per Capita I just gotta locate my ancestors but I hope Reparations comes first

My Dad's family is Choctaw and I qualify for 200 a month but if Reparations for blks come first I would take that

[Lincoln Project]

Endorsed we need Reparations

Will donate to him for sure I go to a blk churchyoo it will be like Tithes

“Reparations” are a nonsensical sham.

I am Choctaw Indian and I qualify for Per Capita I just gotta locate my ancestors but I hope Reparations comes first

My Dad's family is Choctaw and I qualify for 200 a month but if Reparations for blks come first I would take that

Reparations…for what? None of you were enslaved, etc. You’re listening to people trying to manufacture false outrage in order to maintain their power.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Endorsed we need Reparations

Will donate to him for sure I go to a blk churchyoo it will be like Tithes

“Reparations” are a nonsensical sham.

I am Choctaw Indian and I qualify for Per Capita I just gotta locate my ancestors but I hope Reparations comes first

My Dad's family is Choctaw and I qualify for 200 a month but if Reparations for blks come first I would take that

Reparations…for what? None of you were enslaved, etc. You’re listening to people trying to manufacture false outrage in order to maintain their power.

We are still being discriminate against in Jobs I went to a hundred job interviews at Law firms and I am educated I got none my cuz is a judge e came right out of military and got a Legal firm job from military that's why but if we interviewed for Walmart they hire you on the spot

[Pollster]

Defeating an incumbent like Pete Sessions by the margin he did in 2018 was no small feat (John Culberson barely campaigned against Lizzie Fletcher and lost by less). If he can stave off additional bleeding with Hispanic voters I think there's an argument to be made that this could be the cycle's closest Senate race, percentage-wise.