TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds aren't winning TX with Biden in worse poll standings than Eday 22 Democracy Corp had the GCB at 50/47 that's why we won KS GOV now he is at 44/48 LOL and we lost TX by 11

[MargieCat]

This race is more competitive than people on here are giving it credit for.

Last time this map was up, Democrats were defending senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Florida, as well as Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.

In 2020, no one took Texas seriously because Cornyn is clearly a superior senator to Ted Cruz. As a result, minimal money went to MJ Hegar. And this was while people were donating millions to Amy McGrath and Jaime Harrison due to hating McConnell and Graham.

Depending on the national environment, fundraising, candidate quality, and GOTV, Cruz could be vulnerable. But he is still is favored as of now.

Once the buffer in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia evaporates, Democrats will have no choice but to invest in Texas and North Carolina to have any shot of a future senate majority.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1616624307949420547?s=20&t=fnxIZOM...
Here's 2020 Pres to 2022 Gov. Beto ran slightly ahead of Biden in greater Austin, roughly in line with Biden in San Antonio, and slightly behind Biden in Houston and Dallas.

This is very interesting and there are some other Tweets this user posted that show reason for optimism. The current Democratic coalition in TX is not really built well for a Democratic midterm election, so it makes sense, but it is still shocking to see turnout differential shift a race so much.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Petition to rename this thread The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer Killer

[GALeftist]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1616624307949420547?s=20&t=fnxIZOM...
Here's 2020 Pres to 2022 Gov. Beto ran slightly ahead of Biden in greater Austin, roughly in line with Biden in San Antonio, and slightly behind Biden in Houston and Dallas.

This is very interesting and there are some other Tweets this user posted that show reason for optimism. The current Democratic coalition in TX is not really built well for a Democratic midterm election, so it makes sense, but it is still shocking to see turnout differential shift a race so much.

Mhm. The cities leftward shifts are generally reliable cause they’re caused by growth patterns.

The real question is how much more juice Rs can squeeze out of rural communities; you always think they’re at they’re curling but they always manage to squeeze a few extra points.

Also, RGV continues to be a huge wild card. Beto overall did about the same as Biden in RGV, running notably ahead and behind in distinct places.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the Ds can't recruit a candidate for FL it's best to avoid both Ds have a better chance in IN, MO and MS where we only list by 9 pts in IN S don't undersetimate Valerie McCrary IN is late breaking that's why I have it in my signature it's an upset pick

[Spectator]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

[Spectator]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

Trump winning by 3% feels hard to conceive. The state seems to be moving towards Ds, but not quickly enough to make that feasible.
If Beto got within higher single digits or so like I anticipated before Election Day 2022, I would probably be more optimistic here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

Trump winning by 3% feels hard to conceive. The state seems to be moving towards Ds, but not quickly enough to make that feasible.
If Beto got within higher single digits or so like I anticipated before Election Day 2022, I would probably be more optimistic here.

How is TX being a 3% Trump win not feasible? Just get simillar leftward shifts out of most suburbs again and don't collapse by another 50 in RGV. Also Beto 18 already proved it's possible for a D to hold Rs below 3% statewide in the right circumstances at the federal level.

Trump's exact margin in TX in 2020 was R+5.58, which is simillar to how GA voted in 2016.

[MargieCat]

Jaworski looking at running again. Presumably for AG. He would be a smart choice for a senate nominee. No incumbents would have to give up their seat in the process.
https://twitter.com/JaworskiForTX/status/1616116623454228481

[Mr. Smith]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

Trump winning by 3% feels hard to conceive. The state seems to be moving towards Ds, but not quickly enough to make that feasible.
If Beto got within higher single digits or so like I anticipated before Election Day 2022, I would probably be more optimistic here.

Texas by under 10% wasn't considered feasible as recently as 10 years ago, then Hillary arguably carried the popular vote very much on the back of Trump not replicating Romney/McCain in 2016.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

I'm not sure how Cruz will run behind Trump much in the suburbs. What kind of suburbanite in 2024 no less, will be able to stomach voting Trump again but Ted Cruz is a bridge too far? There is a lot of contrast between Cruz and Abbott in 2018 or Trump and Cornyn in 2020. Between Trump and Cruz, I don't see the logic behind significant ticket splitting in the suburban counties. Maybe in the RGV Cruz underperforms Trump but that won't change the end result unless Trump wins the state by like <1%. I think if DeSantis is the nominee though, Cruz would probably run quite a bit behind him, but DeSantis would win the state by a larger margin than Trump so Cruz probably still survives.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

Trump winning by 3% feels hard to conceive. The state seems to be moving towards Ds, but not quickly enough to make that feasible.
If Beto got within higher single digits or so like I anticipated before Election Day 2022, I would probably be more optimistic here.

How is TX being a 3% Trump win not feasible? Just get simillar leftward shifts out of most suburbs again and don't collapse by another 50 in RGV. Also Beto 18 already proved it's possible for a D to hold Rs below 3% statewide in the right circumstances at the federal level.

Trump's exact margin in TX in 2020 was R+5.58, which is simillar to how GA voted in 2016.

Huh. I had forgotten how relatively small the margin was in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are targeting MO and FL, TX isn't that much concerned just like D's are triaging LA and targeting MS and KY Gov

MS and TX Senate are 3rf tier

Tier 1 OH, MT and WV
Tier 2 MO, FL
Tier 3 TX and MS

Obviously, OH  and AZ as wave insurance are must win a combo of MO, FL, WV and MT, TX and MS any two of 6 gets D's to promise land of 51/50 with Gallego of course

[Arizona Iced Tea]

D's are targeting MO and FL, TX isn't that much concerned just like D's are triaging LA and targeting MS and KY Gov

MS and TX Senate are 3rf tier

Tier 1 OH, MT and WV
Tier 2 MO, FL
Tier 3 TX and MS

Obviously, OH  and AZ as wave insurance are must win a combo of MO, FL, WV and MT, TX and MS any two of 6 gets D's to promise land of 51/50 with Gallego of course

There is zero benefit for Dems contesting Mississippi. The state is incredibly racially polarized, and Roger Wicker has incumbency advantage and will win by at least 15%. Far better ways to spend money.

[Spectator]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

I'm not sure how Cruz will run behind Trump much in the suburbs. What kind of suburbanite in 2024 no less, will be able to stomach voting Trump again but Ted Cruz is a bridge too far? There is a lot of contrast between Cruz and Abbott in 2018 or Trump and Cornyn in 2020. Between Trump and Cruz, I don't see the logic behind significant ticket splitting in the suburban counties. Maybe in the RGV Cruz underperforms Trump but that won't change the end result unless Trump wins the state by like <1%. I think if DeSantis is the nominee though, Cruz would probably run quite a bit behind him, but DeSantis would win the state by a larger margin than Trump so Cruz probably still survives.

O’Rourke 2018 did better than Biden in every metropolitan area except for DFW where it was the same. The type of suburbanite who votes for Trump but not Cruz would be the same as in other parts of the state: someone who dislikes Biden and Trump, but just can’t stand Cruz’s nasty personality (personality matters a lot to voters) and Cruz’s many breaking of campaign promises like term limits. His trip to Mexico in the middle of the snowstorm would be another reason.

They don’t need to necessarily vote for the Democrat for Cruz to lose. Obviously it helps the Democrat more if they are to get a few percent of Trump voters though, so I do think candidate quality will be especially important for Democrats here. Someone who is a veteran, like McRaven or Kelly or even a Lucas Kunce type.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

I'm not sure how Cruz will run behind Trump much in the suburbs. What kind of suburbanite in 2024 no less, will be able to stomach voting Trump again but Ted Cruz is a bridge too far? There is a lot of contrast between Cruz and Abbott in 2018 or Trump and Cornyn in 2020. Between Trump and Cruz, I don't see the logic behind significant ticket splitting in the suburban counties. Maybe in the RGV Cruz underperforms Trump but that won't change the end result unless Trump wins the state by like <1%. I think if DeSantis is the nominee though, Cruz would probably run quite a bit behind him, but DeSantis would win the state by a larger margin than Trump so Cruz probably still survives.

O’Rourke 2018 did better than Biden in every metropolitan area except for DFW where it was the same. The type of suburbanite who votes for Trump but not Cruz would be the same as in other parts of the state: someone who dislikes Biden and Trump, but just can’t stand Cruz’s nasty personality (personality matters a lot to voters) and Cruz’s many breaking of campaign promises like term limits. His trip to Mexico in the middle of the snowstorm would be another reason.

They don’t need to necessarily vote for the Democrat for Cruz to lose. Obviously it helps the Democrat more if they are to get a few percent of Trump voters though, so I do think candidate quality will be especially important for Democrats here. Someone who is a veteran, like McRaven or Kelly or even a Lucas Kunce type.  

If one looks deeper into the precinct data, Biden outran Beto slightly in most "suburbs", Beto did a lot better than Biden in the inner-cities and in 2018 turnout was much more solid whereas in 2022 inner-city turnout really sucked.

Cruz can still run slightly ahead of Trump in the suburbs but still behind him in the metros overall.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ik a lot of people are going to talk about "the suburbs" as a generic term in this race, however, I think there's several unique categories of suburbs that each have their own dyanmics.

1. The *rich* rich suburbs. The best examples of this are University Park north of downtown Dallas, and Hunters Creek Village west of downtown Houston. These suburbs are basically already filled in, very white, very educated, and ofc very rich. These suburbs are particularly conservative, and Biden had a record performance in them that no downballot Ds have come close to matching. This is overall a pretty small portion of suburbs, but they have very high voter turnout and hence have disproportionate importance.

2. The historically Black and Hispanic suburbs. These suburbs are established and have existed for at least several decades. Many people don't consider this in the category of suburbs even though they are very much set up like suburbs, albiet not very wealthy ones. These communities have generally drifted right along with the Hispanic and Black votes. These communities are particularly low turnout, and so turnout is probably more important than persuasion in these.

3. The diversifying inner-ring of suburbs. Think like Bellaire or Northern Dallas County. Developed suburbs that have historically been middle class white but are becoming extremely diverse with growing black, hispanic, and asian populations. These suburbs have shifted pretty hard left as a result of this growth, and Beto 2022 basically matched Biden in a lot of these communities likely in part as a result of this growth.

4. Outer suburbs. These are places like Fort Bend County, McKinney, and Denton which are experiencing rapid new development that's generally upper-middle class. These communities are universally shifting hard D, but in some cases still net Rs more votes just because there are so many more votes (60-40 split of 5000 votes nets more than 80-20 of just 1000). Like the last category, growth is really propelling D shifts and Beto matched or outran Biden in many cases.

5. El Paso, Laredo, and McAllen. Idk rlly what to call these but they exists, are heavily Hispanic, and have rlly weird dynamics.

Overall, not every TX suburb will fit clear cut into each of these categories, but generally speaking, a TX suburb should have some combination of these elements. I think it's important we differentiate cause each of these has really unique dynamics, and there are cases where the so-called Texas suburbs have diverged in their shifts pretty notably.

[S019]

I think well-off areas in Houston and in Dallas have to be treated differently politically. The Park Cities and northern Dallas County in general are still quite Republican. The Memorial Villages are really an outlier in Houston, West University Place, Bellaire (which should really count as wealthy and not middle class) and the parts of Houston surrounding them are very well off and pretty Democratic (though these areas obviously voted for Romney, and had a Republican State Representative until 2020)

[Tintrlvr]

I think well-off areas in Houston and in Dallas have to be treated differently politically. The Park Cities and northern Dallas County in general are still quite Republican. The Memorial Villages are really an outlier in Houston, West University Place, Bellaire (which should really count as wealthy and not middle class) and the parts of Houston surrounding them are very well off and pretty Democratic (though these areas obviously voted for Romney, and had a Republican State Representative until 2020)

Isn't Bellaire an obvious analogue with the wealthy and (nowadays) solidly Democratic parts of Dallas just east of the Park Cities, extending to Lakewood?

And Dallas north of the Park Cities, while certainly including some Trump precincts, is really not that Republican at all, even in the heavily white parts.

[S019]

I think well-off areas in Houston and in Dallas have to be treated differently politically. The Park Cities and northern Dallas County in general are still quite Republican. The Memorial Villages are really an outlier in Houston, West University Place, Bellaire (which should really count as wealthy and not middle class) and the parts of Houston surrounding them are very well off and pretty Democratic (though these areas obviously voted for Romney, and had a Republican State Representative until 2020)

Isn't Bellaire an obvious analogue with the wealthy and (nowadays) solidly Democratic parts of Dallas just east of the Park Cities, extending to Lakewood?

And Dallas north of the Park Cities, while certainly including some Trump precincts, is really not that Republican at all, even in the heavily white parts.

I think so, but I wouldn't necessarily say those areas are "middle class." Also I'm not as familiar with Dallas County political geography, so I'm not sure if they're as ancestrally Republican as Bellaire/WUP.

[Spectator]

Did Beto 2018 really not match Biden 2020 in the wealthy white suburbs in places like the Galleria and University Park?

I would have thought he would have, or at least come close. I know Biden did better in Collin County than Beto circa 2018, but I would attribute that more to pop growth than any relative strength of Cruz over Trump in Collin County. I expect Cruz to lose Collin County in 2024 in any case unless Dems nominate someone bad like Lina Hidalgo.