MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Galeel]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1697283982008656326

0% chance of winning the primary. He couldn't even beat a total whackjob in his own district as an incumbent.

He can win with a plurality if the rest of the field is divided.

Eh I have a really hard time seeing him getting much more than the low 20s at the absolute highest, which is almost never enough for a plurality even in very divided fields.

[MT Treasurer]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

[Tekken_Guy]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

Even more than AZ, where Sinema could play spoiler, and WI, which is traditionally to the right of MI?

[MT Treasurer]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

Even more than AZ, where Sinema could play spoiler, and WI, which is traditionally to the right of MI?

1. To the extent Sinema would play spoiler, it would be to the detriment of Lake, not Gallego.

2. WI has more reliable D demographics/D metros than MI or PA and Baldwin an established brand. She’s not unbeatable, but running 2-4 points ahead of Biden will be enough even if the GOP wins the presidency.

[Tekken_Guy]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

Even more than AZ, where Sinema could play spoiler, and WI, which is traditionally to the right of MI?

1. To the extent Sinema would play spoiler, it would be to the detriment of Lake, not Gallego.

2. WI has more reliable D demographics/D metros than MI or PA and Baldwin an established brand. She’s not unbeatable, but running 2-4 points ahead of Biden will be enough even if the GOP wins the presidency.

Lake is not guaranteed to be the R nominee and we can’t count Masters and Lamb out.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

Even more than AZ, where Sinema could play spoiler, and WI, which is traditionally to the right of MI?

1. To the extent Sinema would play spoiler, it would be to the detriment of Lake, not Gallego.

2. WI has more reliable D demographics/D metros than MI or PA and Baldwin an established brand. She’s not unbeatable, but running 2-4 points ahead of Biden will be enough even if the GOP wins the presidency.

Lake is not guaranteed to be the R nominee and we can’t count Masters and Lamb out.

Masters is even worse than Lake (he underperformed in 2022 in the same ticket, for example). Lamb would probably be better than both.

In any case, I could see ticket splits in the Midwest be as high as 7-8 points, due to established Democratic brands/Trump's relatively economically populist message resonating far better in what's likely to be a recession. AZ/NV will likely be states where there's little splitting, or splitting even favors Rs (especially as Gallego isn't exactly a strong candidate).

[MT Treasurer]

Lake is not guaranteed to be the R nominee and we can’t count Masters and Lamb out.

What I said about Sinema taking more votes away from Rs than Ds applies to any potential R nominee in this race, not just Lake.

The truth is that the AZ race is unlikely to even be particularly close as things stand now, the only question is whether Gallego wins by more or less than Kelly.

(Anyway, let’s stick to discussion of the MI race.)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1697283982008656326

0% chance of winning the primary. He couldn't even beat a total whackjob in his own district as an incumbent.

He can win with a plurality if the rest of the field is divided.

It’d have to be to the point that sub 25 can win. Not unheard of but a huge longshot

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/mikerogersformi/status/1699364477022404754?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It’s a good think Slotkin is battle tested, this is going to be tougher than the other two(WI/PA)

[NewYorkExpress]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

Nah, this race just went from Likely D -> Likely D.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

Slotkin will outperform Biden significantly no matter who the Republican nominee is.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not saying the Democrats have this in the bag (in fact, I think it's a tossup), but I fail to see how Mike Rogers is significantly better than Generic R here.

[Vosem]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

Slotkin will outperform Biden significantly no matter who the Republican nominee is.

2016 and 2020 both pretty strongly suggest that an open-seat Democratic nominee -- particularly in the Midwest! -- will not, in fact, over-perform Biden. I expect her to run 1-2 points behind.

That said, still Leans D. Rogers has historically been a very strong campaigner (he outright won the city of Lansing in the 2002 midterm, even for the time an insane accomplishment), but his glory days are well behind him now and he has not run in an election since 2012. (He would've been a dream GOP recruit in 2008/2012/2014; especially in the last of these it's strange that he didn't run). He's now quite out-of-date, though; he had lots of tendencies in office which we'd now call neoconservative. Judging by his endorsement pattern, though, he probably has Daines in his pocket, which implies that Trump is all for this.

Seeing some Democrats talk about carpetbagging, since he's lived in Florida for the past few years, but I doubt that'll work just because Slotkin has also been pretty widely attacked for not actually living in Michigan. Also Democrats thinking of PA-Sen 2022 as a blueprint to a victory, even though it was a race very unusual in how bad the favorables of both leading candidates were, are being very silly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

Slotkin will outperform Biden significantly no matter who the Republican nominee is.

No she won't Casey will Baldwin and Slotkin are slieighted to win 51/47 but Casey is gonna win 54/46, that's the exact margin Kerry abd Edwards win MI bye and Biden wilk win MI 51/47 but the Eday isnt for another 14 mnths and if Trump is tried and convicted it's landslide


Slotkin beats Craig 51/47
Baldwin beats Clarke 51/47
Casey beats McCormick 54/46

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm not saying the Democrats have this in the bag (in fact, I think it's a tossup), but I fail to see how Mike Rogers is significantly better than Generic R here.

I don't think he's inherently good, but the launch video is a good first pitch. A lot of the "candidate experience" factor has less to do with voters explicitly wanting someone who has been in office than it does to do with experienced candidates generally being better at the day-to-day campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

Slotkin will outperform Biden significantly no matter who the Republican nominee is.

2016 and 2020 both pretty strongly suggest that an open-seat Democratic nominee -- particularly in the Midwest! -- will not, in fact, over-perform Biden. I expect her to run 1-2 points behind.

That said, still Leans D. Rogers has historically been a very strong campaigner (he outright won the city of Lansing in the 2002 midterm, even for the time an insane accomplishment), but his glory days are well behind him now and he has not run in an election since 2012. (He would've been a dream GOP recruit in 2008/2012/2014; especially in the last of these it's strange that he didn't run). He's now quite out-of-date, though; he had lots of tendencies in office which we'd now call neoconservative. Judging by his endorsement pattern, though, he probably has Daines in his pocket, which implies that Trump is all for this.

Seeing some Democrats talk about carpetbagging, since he's lived in Florida for the past few years, but I doubt that'll work just because Slotkin has also been pretty widely attacked for not actually living in Michigan. Also Democrats thinking of PA-Sen 2022 as a blueprint to a victory, even though it was a race very unusual in how bad the favorables of both leading candidates were, are being very silly.

The two really aren't the same situations though, and Rogers is literally on tape not even knowing what Prop 3 was. It's not just that he's been living in Florida; he didn't even know what was going on in the state that he wants to represent in the Senate when asked, showing clearly how out of touch with the state he's been at least the last few years. That's nothing like Slotkin's situation.

Also, his abortion stance is not tenable either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rogers uses stock footage of Estonian families in announcement video

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

James Craig will win the primary

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

The presidential race isn't going to be an easy walk for Biden in Michigan. He might be favored but it will be close. Trump surprised everyone in 2016 by winning Michigan, and then again in 2020 by keeping it within 3. John James also outperformed him against incumbent Gary Peters. I think Lean D is a fair assesment for now, but imo its closer to tilt D than likely D.

[MATTROSE94]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

Slotkin will outperform Biden significantly no matter who the Republican nominee is.

I doubt it. Democratic Senate and House candidates seem to underperform significantly when compared to Joe Biden (see 2020). It seems like there are a lot of Biden-straight Republican down ballot voters in most states. While Donald Trump likely wins Michigan by a couple of points in 2024, I think Elissa Slotkin will lose by about 2% more than what Donald Trump wins Michigan by, which will indicate a lot of ticket splitting.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

The presidential race isn't going to be an easy walk for Biden in Michigan. He might be favored but it will be close. Trump surprised everyone in 2016 by winning Michigan, and then again in 2020 by keeping it within 3. John James also outperformed him against incumbent Gary Peters. I think Lean D is a fair assesment for now, but imo its closer to tilt D than likely D.

Trump literally egged people on so much that some tried to kidnap and kill the widely popular governor of Michigan. This ain’t 2016.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

Slotkin will outperform Biden significantly no matter who the Republican nominee is.

2016 and 2020 both pretty strongly suggest that an open-seat Democratic nominee -- particularly in the Midwest! -- will not, in fact, over-perform Biden. I expect her to run 1-2 points behind.

That said, still Leans D. Rogers has historically been a very strong campaigner (he outright won the city of Lansing in the 2002 midterm, even for the time an insane accomplishment), but his glory days are well behind him now and he has not run in an election since 2012. (He would've been a dream GOP recruit in 2008/2012/2014; especially in the last of these it's strange that he didn't run). He's now quite out-of-date, though; he had lots of tendencies in office which we'd now call neoconservative. Judging by his endorsement pattern, though, he probably has Daines in his pocket, which implies that Trump is all for this.

Seeing some Democrats talk about carpetbagging, since he's lived in Florida for the past few years, but I doubt that'll work just because Slotkin has also been pretty widely attacked for not actually living in Michigan. Also Democrats thinking of PA-Sen 2022 as a blueprint to a victory, even though it was a race very unusual in how bad the favorables of both leading candidates were, are being very silly.

What about Craig? Do you think he will struggle to campaign like the last time?