MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Amash in

[prag_prog]

I wish Stabenow can retire..this is probably a good time for a younger Dem to take this seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wish Stabenow can retire..this is probably a good time for a younger Dem to take this seat

Lol she is 72 yrs old the same as WARREN

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot of this insistence on Stabenow's vulnerability is already reminding me of all the obsessive attention on NH for much of 2021 and the very popular idea back then (not just among Atlas posters, but also among pundits) that Hassan was somehow the most vulnerable Senator of that cycle despite representing a reliably blue state (and certainly the bluest of the four GOP target states). It’s fair to say that MI is still a Democratic-leaning state with a very ineffective GOP state party, and plenty of "weak" incumbents have been bailed out by their state's partisan lean (including Hassan, who just outperformed Biden, and Murray, who vastly outperformed expectations/polling, to name only two).

While I could see Stabenow losing to the right challenger (not sure if that is James) in a R-leaning environment, especially if the GOP wins the presidency, I don’t think Casey losing before Stabenow is impossible (even if you don’t consider it particularly likely).

Needless to say, Whitmer was also considered one of the weakest D governors seeking reelection and she just won reelection by double digits.

I think the difference between Hassan and Stabenow is that Hassan was clearly always taking her race seriously whereas in 2018 Stabenow fell asleep at the wheel a bit and while she still easily won, it wasn't the landslide victory most expected.

I worry that if she seeks re-election, MI-Sen is just kinda placed in the background behind the more "obvious" battlegrounds, Dems don't invest as seriously as they should, and it could cost her.

I largely agree with what you're saying though.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1611001851419439107?s=19

Stabenow is retiring

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/chadlivengood/status/1611001740949700611?s=46&t=ZGj7HN59...

[wbrocks67]

Oh wow. That's quite shocking, figured she had at least one more term in her since she's not *that* old

Going to be a very interesting primary, though I imagine Slotkin is basically the dream candidate here.

[Sestak]

Priority number one is now to not run Buttigieg.

[Pollster]

This will surprise many - I know her pollsters were not expecting this, at the least.

Slotkin will be pressured into defending her seat. Benson and Stevens are likely to be top recruits, and if Stevens lands it then it's a clear opening for Mallory McMorrow to ascend to Congress. Incredibly strong bench in the state.

[Orwell]

Garlin Gilchrist for Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Thank god we get some retirements from the 2024 class - Ds need younger voices in the Senate and 2030 would be a disaster full of retirements in vulnerable D seats.

Ds have a pretty strong bench; I wonder if we’ll have a seriously contested D primary? McMorrow would be amazing.

[Senator Incitatus]

Priority number one is now to not run Buttigieg.

TLAIB 2024

[Sir Mohamed]

I didn't see that coming, but also a chance for a fresh new face. Garlin Gilchrist would be a good candidate. Whitmer could also run, though I think she's more likely to prepare for a 2028 WH bid.

[Sir Mohamed]

Priority number one is now to not run Buttigieg.

TLAIB 2024

Hard pass

[Purple_Zebra]

I think Senate R's are going to recruit -- now available -- Peter Meijier over John James (who's had two strikes and is in a competitive seat) and Huizenga. He's actually the kind of guy McConnell has been wishcasting for (young, veteran, credible conservative, sane) and he's been very open he wants to return to Congress. Now whether he survives the MI-GOP primary, well...

Not sure on the D-side, but there are lots of options. For US House - Slotkin is great, but in a v competitive seat. Tlaib may go for an upgrade, but she seems unlikely to win a primary. Stevens could run, but might not clear field and I'm sure Andy Levin will consider, bc he too wanted to stay in Congress (plus his Uncle's old job). Stevens v Levin 2.0?

Lot of MI-State Gov folks (Gov, AG, SOS) too, but they will probs stay the course to oversee 2024 elections. And yes new resident and POTUS shortlister, SOT Buttigieg, whom will get a ton of speculation especially with a D Senate that could replace him.

Feels like D's have a great bench, but will need to do some coordinating to avoid a pileup. R's have an easy pick imo, BUT will need to make sure MI-GOP doesn't mess it up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, they told her to retire, they want someeone younger, I wish Warren would retire

[Sestak]

This will surprise many - I know her pollsters were not expecting this, at the least.

Slotkin will be pressured into defending her seat. Benson and Stevens are likely to be top recruits, and if Stevens lands it then it's a clear opening for Mallory McMorrow to ascend to Congress. Incredibly strong bench in the state.

I would be quite happy with Stevens. Was expecting Benson to be the frontrunner for Governor four years from now after her November performance, but would be happy with her in this spot too.

[Zedonathin2020]

This is an honest relief. Lord knows the Democrats need more younger voices in Congress, especially in the Senate

I’d nominate either Gilchrist, Stevens or even McMorrow. Just for the love of all that’s holy anybody that’s not named Rashida Tlaib. I actually want Democrats to win this thing.

And if it wasn’t for the fact he lost his primary I would say that Meijer is the GOP’s only chance at actually winning this seat.

[Lief 🗽]

Slotkin or Stevens would both be tremendous picks. The LG, AG, SOS would also all be fine though they may want to stay in state government now that they finally have the trifecta. Levin should never be allowed to run again after his cowardice cost us a seat in 2022. Tlaib and Buttigieg are joke options.

[Suburbia]

Buttigieg could win, but Mejjer would beat him.

Lean D/Tilt D.

[Illiniwek]

As much as I like Pete, I really don't think he would do well in this race. I feel pretty confident Meijer would beat him. Now, I also like Meijer and don't oppose him in a vacuum, but Michigan can't give a Senate seat to the Republicans. That would be pretty disastrous. So hoping a really good candidate raises to the top here.

[gerritcole]

do u guys remember kid rock 2018

[Gracile]

As much as I like Pete, I really don't think he would do well in this race. I feel pretty confident Meijer would beat him. Now, I also like Meijer and don't oppose him in a vacuum, but Michigan can't give a Senate seat to the Republicans. That would be pretty disastrous. So hoping a really good candidate raises to the top here.

Meijer would have a difficult time getting through the primary, anyway.

[wbrocks67]

What house district is Mallory in? Figured she would probably do that before she would jump in statewide.

[Oryxslayer]

Slotkin or Stevens would both be tremendous picks. The LG, AG, SOS would also all be fine though they may want to stay in state government now that they finally have the trifecta. Levin should never be allowed to run again after his cowardice cost us a seat in 2022. Tlaib and Buttigieg are joke options.

INB4 James for senate V.3, facilitating the Levin redemption arc.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

It's quite extraordinary how anyone can serve in the US Senate for a state as big and as important as Michigan for nearly a quarter of a century and yet remain completely anonymous.