Should Kagan and Sotomayor retire?

[Skill and Chance]

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

[Skill and Chance]

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

Sotomayor likely will try to serve 18 years to receive full pension, as Souter did before. Not sure if they changed the rule now.

It appears that the federal judicial pension kicks in at age 65 and 15 years of service as a federal judge.  Sotomayor is 68 and has been a federal judge since 1992, because she held district and circuit court level judgeships before being appointed to SCOTUS, so she should clearly be eligible.  Souter had never been a federal judge before joining SCOTUS, so he would have needed to serve all of his 15 years there.  This would also apply to Kagan.  Kagan would not be eligible until at least 2025. 

[Skill and Chance]

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

Sotomayor likely will try to serve 18 years to receive full pension, as Souter did before. Not sure if they changed the rule now.

It appears that the federal judicial pension kicks in at age 65 and 15 years of service as a federal judge.  Sotomayor is 68 and has been a federal judge since 1992, because she held district and circuit court level judgeships before being appointed to SCOTUS, so she should clearly be eligible.  Souter had never been a federal judge before joining SCOTUS, so he would have needed to serve all of his 15 years there.  This would also apply to Kagan.  Kagan would not be eligible until at least 2025. 

Interesting, I read Tobin's the nine which claimed SCOTUS pension is 18 years and that's why Souter retired in 2009. Not sure if he was wrong or they changed the law.

I've only ever heard of the Rule of 80 (which is what the 65+15 is referring to). It seems fairly obvious that Justice Souter did not want a right-wing successor, so 2009 would've been the first year available upon reaching the retirement/pension requirement. From what I understand, he would've waited longer if another Justice had wanted to retire that year.

It's also kind of interesting that Souter (age 69 at retirement) left one year before Stevens (age 90 at retirement).

[Skill and Chance]

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

This is the probably what I would advise where I a partisan democrat. The Senate map in 2024 is brutal for them and they could easily lose it even if they win the presidency by a good margin.

I thought Democrats already lost those seats in 2018.

They lost four (and gaines two) that year, though Manchin (West Virginia), Tester (Montana) and Brown (Ohio) are at high risks. Arizona potentially as well, and Wisconsin is also an option (I don't think the others up in 2024 are competitive). On the flip side, Democrats have almost nothing to gain other than Texas against Cruz, which is a heavy lift. And Florida isn't going to happen. Biden could win reelection, even take back the House and lose the senate regardless. Being at 51 (assuming Warnock wins) would give them a small window to hold on, but I'd much rather be at 52 or 53 now.

This.  It's not anywhere near as bad as it could have been.  They are obviously on borrowed time in WV/MT/OH, and a retirement in any of those 3 is game over, but the next tranche of seats in the Nevada and narrow Trump 2016 states where the bottom could really fall out looks better for them now having seen 2020 and 2022 results in those states.  However, there's also a serious possibility of a pickup in Texas with Cruz's weaknesses. 

There's also the matter of the 2026 map, which looks increasingly attractive as an opportunity to take the Senate back if there's a Republican president.  They can reasonably compete in Alaska and Texas by then and Collins may well retire.