Should Kagan and Sotomayor retire?
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  Should Kagan and Sotomayor retire?
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Author Topic: Should Kagan and Sotomayor retire?  (Read 2007 times)
Beet
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« on: November 13, 2022, 12:07:29 PM »

On the surface, it's a bizarre question to ask. After all, they have only been on the bench for 12 and 13 years respectively, compared to 16 years on average and as long as 35 years as life expectancy grows. 2010 does not seem that long ago at all. When they were appointed to the bench, they probably thought they won the lottery and were looking forward to a lifetime sinecure with the eventual chance of being in the liberal majority and being able to write majority decisions on politically contentious issues. Furthermore, as only the second Jewish woman and the first Latina on the bench, it might seem racist and sexist to pressure them to retire when their white male colleagues sat on the bench far longer than them.

Nonetheless, when it comes to the Supreme Court the reality is that the Democrats can't afford to be anything but pragmatic at the moment.

Kagan is 62 and Sotomayor is 68, at normal retirement age anyway. Their retirements could allow Biden to pick a replacement in her 40s, two actually. Plus, it's hard to ignore the issue of RBG and her retirement mistake. It shows that one of the biggest legacies of a Justice is not their opinions but their decision to retire. As a 3-6 minority, neither Kagan nor Sotomayor are likely to be writing any majority decisions on politically contentious issues any time soon, but they could secure their legacies with timely decisions to retire. It would of course be good for the Democrats as a whole as well.
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SWE
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2022, 12:17:50 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2022, 12:22:52 PM by SWE »

Wait until 2024, if Dems lose the Senate or presidency, yes, ram through a replacement in the lame duck session, otherwise they can wait an extra two years if they want

Furthermore, as only the second Jewish woman and the first Latina on the bench, it might seem racist and sexist to pressure them to retire when their white male colleagues sat on the bench far longer than them.


This would be a pretty idiotic leap in logic given 4 out of the 9 sitting justices owe their seats to white men retiring strategically. If there's one, singular area this argument wouldn't work, it's here
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SWE
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2022, 12:25:30 PM »

Wait until 2024, if Dems lose the Senate or presidency, yes, ram through a replacement in the lame duck session, otherwise they can wait an extra two years if they want

You think Manchin and Sinema would go for that, especially since they'll both likely have been unceremoniously booted by their parties, Sinema in a primary and Manchin in a general?
Sinema's vote probably wouldn't be decisive either way as Dems likely will have 51 seats after the Georgia runoff and I don't see why Republicans sending Manchin home would cause him to stop being a team player on Democratic judicial nominees, which has never been a problem in the past
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2022, 02:56:15 PM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2022, 03:02:26 PM »

Alito, Thomas and Roberts should retire alltogether and let Dark Brandon fill their seats.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2022, 04:52:50 PM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

This is the probably what I would advise where I a partisan democrat. The Senate map in 2024 is brutal for them and they could easily lose it even if they win the presidency by a good margin.

Kagan is young enough (and presumably healthy enough) that I wouldn't think she would have to retire
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David Hume
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2022, 08:45:00 AM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason
Sotomayor likely will try to serve 18 years to receive full pension, as Souter did before. Not sure if they changed the rule now.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2022, 09:14:55 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2022, 12:38:53 PM by Skill and Chance »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason
Sotomayor likely will try to serve 18 years to receive full pension, as Souter did before. Not sure if they changed the rule now.

It appears that the federal judicial pension kicks in at age 65 and 15 years of service as a federal judge.  Sotomayor is 68 and has been a federal judge since 1992, because she held district and circuit court level judgeships before being appointed to SCOTUS, so she should clearly be eligible.  Souter had never been a federal judge before joining SCOTUS, so he would have needed to serve all of his 15 years there.  This would also apply to Kagan.  Kagan would not be eligible until at least 2025. 
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2022, 10:56:23 AM »

At least Sotomayor should. I don't want another Ginsburg.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2022, 11:43:04 AM »

Sotomayor should retire sometime next year. Kagan probably should as well, but her situation's not as risky.
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David Hume
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2022, 02:21:22 PM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason
Sotomayor likely will try to serve 18 years to receive full pension, as Souter did before. Not sure if they changed the rule now.

It appears that the federal judicial pension kicks in at age 65 and 15 years of service as a federal judge.  Sotomayor is 68 and has been a federal judge since 1992, because she held district and circuit court level judgeships before being appointed to SCOTUS, so she should clearly be eligible.  Souter had never been a federal judge before joining SCOTUS, so he would have needed to serve all of his 15 years there.  This would also apply to Kagan.  Kagan would not be eligible until at least 2025. 
Interesting, I read Tobin's the nine which claimed SCOTUS pension is 18 years and that's why Souter retired in 2009. Not sure if he was wrong or they changed the law.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2022, 08:22:14 PM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

This is the probably what I would advise where I a partisan democrat. The Senate map in 2024 is brutal for them and they could easily lose it even if they win the presidency by a good margin.

I thought Democrats already lost those seats in 2018.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2022, 05:46:49 AM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason
Sotomayor likely will try to serve 18 years to receive full pension, as Souter did before. Not sure if they changed the rule now.

It appears that the federal judicial pension kicks in at age 65 and 15 years of service as a federal judge.  Sotomayor is 68 and has been a federal judge since 1992, because she held district and circuit court level judgeships before being appointed to SCOTUS, so she should clearly be eligible.  Souter had never been a federal judge before joining SCOTUS, so he would have needed to serve all of his 15 years there.  This would also apply to Kagan.  Kagan would not be eligible until at least 2025. 
Interesting, I read Tobin's the nine which claimed SCOTUS pension is 18 years and that's why Souter retired in 2009. Not sure if he was wrong or they changed the law.

I've only ever heard of the Rule of 80 (which is what the 65+15 is referring to). It seems fairly obvious that Justice Souter did not want a right-wing successor, so 2009 would've been the first year available upon reaching the retirement/pension requirement. From what I understand, he would've waited longer if another Justice had wanted to retire that year.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2022, 11:08:39 AM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason
Sotomayor likely will try to serve 18 years to receive full pension, as Souter did before. Not sure if they changed the rule now.

It appears that the federal judicial pension kicks in at age 65 and 15 years of service as a federal judge.  Sotomayor is 68 and has been a federal judge since 1992, because she held district and circuit court level judgeships before being appointed to SCOTUS, so she should clearly be eligible.  Souter had never been a federal judge before joining SCOTUS, so he would have needed to serve all of his 15 years there.  This would also apply to Kagan.  Kagan would not be eligible until at least 2025. 
Interesting, I read Tobin's the nine which claimed SCOTUS pension is 18 years and that's why Souter retired in 2009. Not sure if he was wrong or they changed the law.

I've only ever heard of the Rule of 80 (which is what the 65+15 is referring to). It seems fairly obvious that Justice Souter did not want a right-wing successor, so 2009 would've been the first year available upon reaching the retirement/pension requirement. From what I understand, he would've waited longer if another Justice had wanted to retire that year.

It's also kind of interesting that Souter (age 69 at retirement) left one year before Stevens (age 90 at retirement).
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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2022, 07:20:24 PM »

The suggestion of the OP if adopted would be another bullet shot into an important organ of SCOTUS. Soon, people would be put on SCOTUS as soon as they are 18 after a chip is put in their brains to control their reasoning.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2022, 08:40:45 PM »

Discussions like this are exactly why the Supreme Court needs to have term limits.
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Beet
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2022, 08:43:04 PM »

The suggestion of the OP if adopted would be another bullet shot into an important organ of SCOTUS. Soon, people would be put on SCOTUS as soon as they are 18 after a chip is put in their brains to control their reasoning.

Don't blame the suggestion, blame the system that makes it reasonable.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2022, 03:42:45 PM »

The suggestion of the OP if adopted would be another bullet shot into an important organ of SCOTUS. Soon, people would be put on SCOTUS as soon as they are 18 after a chip is put in their brains to control their reasoning.

At this point, I think destroying SCOTUS's credibility is essential for the wellbeing of the country. I would love it if Biden got the chance to fill a vacant SCOTUS seat with a 25-year-old recent graduate. The sooner the public loses all respect for it, the sooner it can be reformed. It's sad that it has to be this way, but oh well, it's not our fault.
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°Leprechaun
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« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2022, 02:12:25 PM »

The suggestion of the OP if adopted would be another bullet shot into an important organ of SCOTUS. Soon, people would be put on SCOTUS as soon as they are 18 after a chip is put in their brains to control their reasoning.
The youngest nominee in US history was Joseph Story who was 32 when he was nominated. That seems to be a reasonable age.

If someone wants to have a computer chip in their brain, that would be an individual choice.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: December 04, 2022, 03:25:08 PM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

This is the probably what I would advise where I a partisan democrat. The Senate map in 2024 is brutal for them and they could easily lose it even if they win the presidency by a good margin.

I thought Democrats already lost those seats in 2018.

They lost four (and gaines two) that year, though Manchin (West Virginia), Tester (Montana) and Brown (Ohio) are at high risks. Arizona potentially as well, and Wisconsin is also an option (I don't think the others up in 2024 are competitive). On the flip side, Democrats have almost nothing to gain other than Texas against Cruz, which is a heavy lift. And Florida isn't going to happen. Biden could win reelection, even take back the House and lose the senate regardless. Being at 51 (assuming Warnock wins) would give them a small window to hold on, but I'd much rather be at 52 or 53 now.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: December 04, 2022, 03:38:25 PM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

This is the probably what I would advise where I a partisan democrat. The Senate map in 2024 is brutal for them and they could easily lose it even if they win the presidency by a good margin.

I thought Democrats already lost those seats in 2018.

They lost four (and gaines two) that year, though Manchin (West Virginia), Tester (Montana) and Brown (Ohio) are at high risks. Arizona potentially as well, and Wisconsin is also an option (I don't think the others up in 2024 are competitive). On the flip side, Democrats have almost nothing to gain other than Texas against Cruz, which is a heavy lift. And Florida isn't going to happen. Biden could win reelection, even take back the House and lose the senate regardless. Being at 51 (assuming Warnock wins) would give them a small window to hold on, but I'd much rather be at 52 or 53 now.

This.  It's not anywhere near as bad as it could have been.  They are obviously on borrowed time in WV/MT/OH, and a retirement in any of those 3 is game over, but the next tranche of seats in the Nevada and narrow Trump 2016 states where the bottom could really fall out looks better for them now having seen 2020 and 2022 results in those states.  However, there's also a serious possibility of a pickup in Texas with Cruz's weaknesses. 

There's also the matter of the 2026 map, which looks increasingly attractive as an opportunity to take the Senate back if there's a Republican president.  They can reasonably compete in Alaska and Texas by then and Collins may well retire.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2022, 04:03:25 PM »

Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason

This is the probably what I would advise where I a partisan democrat. The Senate map in 2024 is brutal for them and they could easily lose it even if they win the presidency by a good margin.

I thought Democrats already lost those seats in 2018.

They lost four (and gaines two) that year, though Manchin (West Virginia), Tester (Montana) and Brown (Ohio) are at high risks. Arizona potentially as well, and Wisconsin is also an option (I don't think the others up in 2024 are competitive). On the flip side, Democrats have almost nothing to gain other than Texas against Cruz, which is a heavy lift. And Florida isn't going to happen. Biden could win reelection, even take back the House and lose the senate regardless. Being at 51 (assuming Warnock wins) would give them a small window to hold on, but I'd much rather be at 52 or 53 now.

This.  It's not anywhere near as bad as it could have been.  They are obviously on borrowed time in WV/MT/OH, and a retirement in any of those 3 is game over, but the next tranche of seats in the Nevada and narrow Trump 2016 states where the bottom could really fall out looks better for them now having seen 2020 and 2022 results in those states.  However, there's also a serious possibility of a pickup in Texas with Cruz's weaknesses. 

There's also the matter of the 2026 map, which looks increasingly attractive as an opportunity to take the Senate back if there's a Republican president.  They can reasonably compete in Alaska and Texas by then and Collins may well retire.

Dems getting back the Senate in 2026 under a Republican President is almost certainly predicated on holding 2024 losses to just OH/WV/MT.  In this scenario, it’s hard to see neither of AZ, NV, and potentially even WI falling.  If Dems are at just 45/46 seats going into 2026, it’s hard to see them getting the five or six seats needed for control that year. 
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2022, 06:29:02 PM »

The suggestion of the OP if adopted would be another bullet shot into an important organ of SCOTUS. Soon, people would be put on SCOTUS as soon as they are 18 after a chip is put in their brains to control their reasoning.

The Supreme Court functions less as a judicial body these days than as a hyper-partisan House of Lords.  It sucks, but that’s the way it is.  Blame the Republicans if you don’t like it Tongue  They stole one seat and put an attempted rapist in another.  There is nothing about the Supreme Court today that merits anything like the sort of special institutional credibility you seem to believe we should afford it.
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Torie
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« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2022, 08:26:12 PM »

The suggestion of the OP if adopted would be another bullet shot into an important organ of SCOTUS. Soon, people would be put on SCOTUS as soon as they are 18 after a chip is put in their brains to control their reasoning.

The Supreme Court functions less as a judicial body these days than as a hyper-partisan House of Lords.  It sucks, but that’s the way it is.  Blame the Republicans if you don’t like it Tongue  They stole one seat and put an attempted rapist in another.  There is nothing about the Supreme Court today that merits anything like the sort of special institutional credibility you seem to believe we should afford it.

I sometimes wonder how many body blows the civic culture can absorbed with everything caustic and hyper partisan where we all distrust if not loathe each other, with SCOTUS taken down as well in the dyspeptic tsunami, before the rule of law and the other load bearing foundations fall away, and hope I am not still alive to witness it, if that is our destiny.

This forum is reflective of what is out there, and indeed what is out there is considerably worse. I find it sobering and sad. Good luck.
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