Sotomayor- yes, she probably should retire by 2024
Kagan- no, unless she knows she is very sick for some private reason
This is the probably what I would advise where I a partisan democrat. The Senate map in 2024 is brutal for them and they could easily lose it even if they win the presidency by a good margin.
I thought Democrats already lost those seats in 2018.
They lost four (and gaines two) that year, though Manchin (West Virginia), Tester (Montana) and Brown (Ohio) are at high risks. Arizona potentially as well, and Wisconsin is also an option (I don't think the others up in 2024 are competitive). On the flip side, Democrats have almost nothing to gain other than Texas against Cruz, which is a heavy lift. And Florida isn't going to happen. Biden could win reelection, even take back the House and lose the senate regardless. Being at 51 (assuming Warnock wins) would give them a small window to hold on, but I'd much rather be at 52 or 53 now.
This. It's not anywhere near as bad as it could have been. They are obviously on borrowed time in WV/MT/OH, and a retirement in any of those 3 is game over, but the next tranche of seats in the Nevada and narrow Trump 2016 states where the bottom could really fall out looks better for them now having seen 2020 and 2022 results in those states. However, there's also a serious possibility of a pickup in Texas with Cruz's weaknesses.
There's also the matter of the 2026 map, which looks increasingly attractive as an opportunity to take the Senate back if there's a Republican president. They can reasonably compete in Alaska and Texas by then and Collins may well retire.
Dems getting back the Senate in 2026 under a Republican President is almost certainly predicated on holding 2024 losses to just OH/WV/MT. In this scenario, it’s hard to see neither of AZ, NV, and potentially even WI falling. If Dems are at just 45/46 seats going into 2026, it’s hard to see them getting the five or six seats needed for control that year.
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