Congressional Leadership Megathread - McCarthy elected Speaker after 15 ballots, 4 days

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCarthy still floundering as the Freedom Caucus holds firm and Centrist Ds and Rs begin speculating as to a compromise speaker that could obtain 218: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/friends-critics-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-00071489

[Torrain]

👀
https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1598450042012327936

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

👀
https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1598450042012327936

Lots of Intriguing options:

Trump? Trump Jr.? Ivanka? Eric?
Gingrich? Haley? Zeldin?
Oz? Masters? Kari Lake? Walker if he loses?

[brucejoel99]

How many ballots of "Jeffries 212, McCarthy 209, Trump 13" do we suffer through to get an Alaskan-style coalition?

[Ferguson97]

👀
https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1598450042012327936

Lots of Intriguing options:

Trump? Trump Jr.? Ivanka? Eric?
Gingrich? Haley? Zeldin?
Oz? Masters? Kari Lake? Walker if he loses?

DeSanctimonious?

[Oryxslayer]

👀
SNIP

Lots of Intriguing options:

Trump? Trump Jr.? Ivanka? Eric?
Gingrich? Haley? Zeldin?
Oz? Masters? Kari Lake? Walker if he loses?

John Boehner was spotted on Capitol Hill earlier in the week, though I doubt he's an option to anyone but moderate R's - if only cause a lot of the extremist rebels came in after his time. But maybe that's why he did go, to make his intentions known to those who would actually hold him in respect.

As to the broader picture, its interesting that of the handful of general routes the gamesmanship could go, we appear to be on the one where the 5+ radical rebels refuse McCarthy's overtures, and we get potential chaos around the holidays as everyone realizes that nobody has the votes. More uncertainty, more names get put forward, and increasing possibility of backroom deals.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It’s somewhat remarkable that everyone is open and even some ready and eager to nominate a non-house member as speaker even though there has never even been one. The first time anyone even voted for a non-incumbent house member was 1997. It really has only been a common occurrence in the last 15 years

[Ferguson97]

It’s somewhat remarkable that everyone is open and even some ready and eager to nominate a non-house member as speaker even though there has never even been one. The first time anyone even voted for a non-incumbent house member was 1997. It really has only been a common occurrence in the last 15 years

And even then those were only protest votes. It'll be really shocking/unprecedented if we actually get a non-member elected Speaker.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1598681000116162562?s=20&t=jy87eU7...

Another faction emerges.

List includes: Valadao CA-22, Obernolte CA-23, Kim CA-40, Steel CA-45, Diaz-Balart FL-26, Salazar FL-27, Gimenez FL-28, Stauber MN-08, Amodei NV-02, Bill Johnson OH-06, Turner OH-10, Joyce OH-14, Chavez-DeRemer OR-06, Kean NJ-07, Garbarino NY-02, Malliotakis NY-11, Lawler NY-17, Molinaro NY-19, Burgess TX-26, Moore UT-01, and Curtis UT-03.

We see a legacy Ohio grouping from the days when these type of Republicans ruled the state, a anti-Radical Mormon grouping, a Cuban grouping, and a swing-seat grouping that overlaps with NYC media market and Jungle Primary grouping.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1598681000116162562

Another faction emerges.

List includes: Valadao CA-22, Obernolte CA-23, Kim CA-40, Steel CA-45, Diaz-Balart FL-26, Salazar FL-27, Gimenez FL-28, Stauber MN-08, Amodei NV-02, Bill Johnson OH-06, Turner OH-10, Joyce OH-14, Chavez-DeRemer OR-06, Kean NJ-07, Garbarino NY-02, Malliotakis NY-11, Lawler NY-17, Molinaro NY-19, Burgess TX-26, Moore UT-01, and Curtis UT-03.

We see a legacy Ohio grouping from the days when these type of Republicans ruled the state, a anti-Radical Mormon grouping, a Cuban grouping, and a swing-seat grouping that overlaps with NYC media market and Jungle Primary grouping.

Hmm, sounds a bit familiar:

Like a 'IRC' doesn't need to be made up of moderates. Just non-radicals who seize the moment to put themselves at the heads of committees via Dem votes.

We are currently at McCarthy trying to woo [Gaetz & Co.] back on board stage of negotiations (See Hunter Biden) before they say they would only support Scalise or worse - one of their own.

What we will have to see about is if said bending over backward causes those on the other side of the party to break. Once again, they don't need to be true moderates, just power-hungry non-radicals who want all the committee chairs, speaker seat, and are willing to promise the dems that the ship will remain stable.

[brucejoel99]

Lmaooo but hey, 10 is 10, & 10's more than enough:

https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1598734061060517888

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Is there any chance this is all bluster and the GOP falls in line behind McCarthy as the new year approaches? Or is a contested ballot pretty much a foregone conclusion?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lmaooo but hey, 10 is 10, & 10's more than enough:

https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1598734061060517888

I read that the mystery candidate is actually Lee Zeldin.

[President Johnson]

Lmaooo but hey, 10 is 10, & 10's more than enough:

https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1598734061060517888

"Check on Biden" just sounds much better than obstruction, pointless investigations and using a government shutdown to slash social funds.

Anyway, the more Republican infighting the better. Show everybody that these clowns are not a serious governing group.

[brucejoel99]

Is there any chance this is all bluster and the GOP falls in line behind McCarthy as the new year approaches? Or is a contested ballot pretty much a foregone conclusion?

We're probably ultimately dealing with a 2015-style negotiated settlement of some sort among the Republicans; whether that's McCarthy giving the FC everything they want, stepping down for Scalise/Stefanik, or something else, who knows? The "probably" is italicized for a reason, though, because if just 5 are digged-in no matter what, then - short of Dems unilaterally disarming & giving the GOP Conference's choice a "present" or 2 - the math isn't there for a Speaker 'til somebody blinks (& hopefully it's enough moderates who blink first to form an Alaskan-style "good governance, strong & stable economy, unrocked boat" coalition).

[Vosem]

Lmaooo but hey, 10 is 10, & 10's more than enough:

https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1598734061060517888

I read that the mystery candidate is actually Lee Zeldin.

Zeldin would make a strange amount of sense as the 2023 version of what Paul Ryan was in 2015 (an alternative name acceptable, for one reason or another, to everyone from the far-right to the far-left of the party, even though he actually doesn't want the role), but so far the only place I've heard his name brought up is just scattered Internet musings.

I don't think anybody has anything against Bridenstine, but he isn't prominent enough.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1598734061060517888

What a random pick...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1598833081858678784?s=20&t=jy87eU7FCJN...

Both the initial tweet and the response I think are important here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lmaooo but hey, 10 is 10, & 10's more than enough:

https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1598734061060517888

I read that the mystery candidate is actually Lee Zeldin.

Please, no! I get that he is one of the few Republicans to come out of these midterms as something resembling a hero for them, but just ew...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

An Opening Bid by Democrats for a Compromise Speaker: Retiring Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI)
https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/12-2-2022/mccarthy-upton-speaker/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Is there any chance this is all bluster and the GOP falls in line behind McCarthy as the new year approaches? Or is a contested ballot pretty much a foregone conclusion?

We're probably ultimately dealing with a 2015-style negotiated settlement of some sort among the Republicans; whether that's McCarthy giving the FC everything they want, stepping down for Scalise/Stefanik, or something else, who knows? The "probably" is italicized for a reason, though, because if just 5 are digged-in no matter what, then - short of Dems unilaterally disarming & giving the GOP Conference's choice a "present" or 2 - the math isn't there for a Speaker 'til somebody blinks (& hopefully it's enough moderates who blink first to form an Alaskan-style "good governance, strong & stable economy, unrocked boat" coalition).

More importantly, what are the chances *I* become speaker? Forget this whole being a doctor thing.  

Just think! "We're gonna hold the vote outside today because it's too nice out!"

[Torie]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus. 

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

[Torie]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus. 

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

If Republicans need our help electing a Speaker, let them vote for Jeffries.  Some Problem Starters ghoul like Josh Gottheimer being a committee chair or even Speaker is no better than having Jim Jordan or Kevin McCarthy in the role.  And Republicans can negotiate directly with the Democratic Caucus if they think they have a proposal that will make bailing them out worthwhile.