Congressional Leadership Megathread - McCarthy elected Speaker after 15 ballots, 4 days

[Adam Griffin]

Conversation came up about this on Discord, regarding what could/might happen if we genuinely end up with a House with only a 1 or 2-seat majority on either side and/or there are enough vacancies on one side to actually upset the numerical balance of power for the Majority Party after a Speaker is initially elected.

I've tried to dig tentatively through House rules to determine:

• is a challenge to a Speaker mid-term possible (yes)
• has it ever successfully happened (no - though attempted twice, with the last time in 2015 eventually leading to Boehner's resignation)
• what is the procedure for such?

Keep in mind that I could be mistaken about the following procedures: I'm not a House decorum and rules expert! Those who may know more can weigh in with any confirmed corrections and I'll update this.

We're also (for argument's sake) going to assume in this scenario that McCarthy (or another R) becomes Speaker initially: I think the chances are 70% or greater at this point:

Option #1: it sounds like if Pelosi personally (or whomever is House D leader) introduces a motion to vacate the Speaker's Chair, it immediately moves to the floor as a "privileged motion" - but a motion to table can be offered after it is introduced and before a vote occurs - and prior to the motion to table, McCarthy (or whomever is House R Speaker) would also still in theory have the power to adjourn.

Obviously, Pelosi has to have all her ducks in a row here (i.e. you need to know ahead of time that you've got the votes for the Chair, but also the votes to a) override a potential adjourn vote by McCarthy & b) override the motion to table the motion to vacate the Chair). Assuming you clear those 2 potential hurdles - which would occur immediately after Pelosi introduces the motion - then the actual vote to vacate the Speaker's Chair can occur. The "for" and "against" sides each get equal time to speak (so if you're wanting to move fast, it behooves you as the side introducing the motion not to ramble). In this situation, you could jump through all of this and vacate the speaker's chair within the same working day.

Option #2: if another Democrat introduces it, all of the other stuff (motions to table & adjourn) can occur, but it also allows the Speaker up to 2 days before holding these votes. However, the only other Democrats who can introduce it under a privileged motion would be those "by direction of a party caucus or conference", meaning some rando w/o backing can't do it alone and it be "privileged" (i.e. the procedure above that allows it to move rapidly and w/o typical obstacles).

If someone does like what Mark Meadows did in 2015 (i.e. introduces it without backing of caucus or conference), then it can be easily sent to committee by the Speaker and drag out for ages (assuming it wouldn't be killed there, which I'm sure it would). This became concrete after rules changes to Rule XI during the 2019-21 House session.

What's Unclear: nothing I've seen says whether you need simply a majority of the current House membership, a simple majority of the total chamber including vacancies (218) or - as this one article suggested - "a simple majority plus one" (219).

However, given Speakers can be elected with fewer than 218 votes (see: this current term, where Pelosi was elected with 216 votes, and 2015-16, where Boehner was also elected with 216 votes), I'm thinking the same would apply for removal & that 50% of the active body + 1 would be sufficient.

[Benjamin Frank]

The Speaker is the one person in The House who routinely doesn't vote or make speeches. Shouldn't it be called The Silent?

[Torrain]

It sounds like the Right are going to try and screw McCarthy on the first ballot:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MZanona/status/1591932159866060802

If true, it could mean that this is the first election in 100 years when a Speaker isn’t elected on the first ballot…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kevin McCarthy sold his soul and all he got was a lousy hat.

[Ferguson97]

If true, it could mean that this is the first election in 100 years when a Speaker isn’t elected on the first ballot…

133 ballots in 1855? Good lord...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If true, it could mean that this is the first election in 100 years when a Speaker isn’t elected on the first ballot…

133 ballots in 1855? Good lord...

Democrats lost a majority, but the "opposition" was divided among Whigs, Republicans and Know-Nothings.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I'll be in Denver at the AMS conference at the time, but if I find the time I'll grab some microwave popcorn and kick my feet up laughing at everyone squabbling.

[President Johnson]

What are House rules if one ballot after another fails to elect a speaker on January 3? Does Pelosi remain in her position until a successor is elected?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

What are House rules if one ballot after another fails to elect a speaker on January 3? Does Pelosi remain in her position until a successor is elected?

I don't think so since its a brand new Congress. I think the position of speaker is just vacant. It seems it was open for months in 1855.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/benpershing/status/1592254429113520129?s=20&t=qCeDf_pM-G...

So this reveals two things. One, McCarthy probably doesn't have the votes, which means likely no GOP leader has the votes between the Q's and the incoming 'NYC media market Biden seat' caucus, and that I don't think any dems are going to flip parties.

Really looks like whoever does become speaker is probably going to need some votes from both parties, even if it is just a handful from one,

[Dani Rose]

Cuellar could legitimately become Speaker. That is a thing that's in the realm of possibility.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I have expected this to happen all year long. Anywhere south of 225 seats and I knew McCarthy would be on thin ice. Less then 220? No way he’s speaker.

I genuinely have no idea who it’ll be or when it will be decided. Maybe Pelosi will be able to flip one or two moderates, maybe Kiley if he wins? Cliff Bentz, Dan Crenshaw, Brian Fitzpatrick, Darin LaHood, and Cathy McMorris Rogers might be lobbied to officially caucus with the democratic majority

If I was Pelosi I’d be at republicans doors right now trying to hammer out an Alaska style governing coalition

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/benpershing/status/1592254429113520129?s=20&t=qCeDf_pM-G...

So this reveals two things. One, McCarthy probably doesn't have the votes, which means likely no GOP leader has the votes between the Q's and the incoming 'NYC media market Biden seat' caucus, and that I don't think any dems are going to flip parties.

Really looks like whoever does become speaker is probably going to need some votes from both parties, even if it is just a handful from one,

What were they even offering him if he did switch?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Cuellar could legitimately become Speaker. That is a thing that's in the realm of possibility.

He is under FBI investigation. I don't think there will be a cross party moderate speaker. But if there is it won't be him.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1592280457068294145?s=20&t=qCeDf_p...

VA-05 somehow always sent the best people.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1592280457068294145?s=20&t=qCeDf_p...

VA-05 somehow always sent the best people.

So that’s one confirmed vote against McCarthy?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1592280457068294145?s=20&t=qCeDf_p...

VA-05 somehow always sent the best people.

So that’s one confirmed vote against McCarthy?

Matt Gaetz basically said he won’t vote for McCarthy no matter what and Andy Biggs is reportedly running against him, so that’s three votes. 

[Torrain]

Well, Cuellar me surprised... _{(I'm sorry)}

Can't believe we've already reached the "begging people to cross the floor" stage. We don't even have a finalised House map!

Although the fact that McCarthy announced his candidacy for Speaker when there were still 64 uncalled seats should probably been an indicator that he was feeling jumpy about his chances.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I have expected this to happen all year long. Anywhere south of 225 seats and I knew McCarthy would be on thin ice. Less then 220? No way he’s speaker.

I genuinely have no idea who it’ll be or when it will be decided. Maybe Pelosi will be able to flip one or two moderates, maybe Kiley if he wins? Cliff Bentz, Dan Crenshaw, Brian Fitzpatrick, Darin LaHood, and Cathy McMorris Rogers might be lobbied to officially caucus with the democratic majority

If I was Pelosi I’d be at republicans doors right now trying to hammer out an Alaska style governing coalition

Kiley is NOT a moderate. He campaigned as one in 2016, but he’s been nothing but a right-wing ideologue since taking office. He’s scum, plain and simple. I’ve also heard rumors about his personal life and that of the Republican guy running to succeed him from a friend who used to work at the state capitol.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1592280457068294145?s=20&t=qCeDf_p...

VA-05 somehow always sent the best people.

So that’s one confirmed vote against McCarthy?

Matt Gaetz basically said he won’t vote for McCarthy no matter what and Andy Biggs is reportedly running against him, so that’s three votes. 

So Republicans would need to get 221 seats minimum for McCarthy to have the votes, assuming these guys don't cave on the 5th+ ballot. Is the math even there for them to get past 220?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1592280457068294145?s=20&t=qCeDf_p...

VA-05 somehow always sent the best people.

So that’s one confirmed vote against McCarthy?

Matt Gaetz basically said he won’t vote for McCarthy no matter what and Andy Biggs is reportedly running against him, so that’s three votes. 

So Republicans would need to get 221 seats minimum for McCarthy to have the votes, assuming these guys don't cave on the 5th+ ballot. Is the math even there for them to get past 220?

If they win every race they are currently leading in that puts them at 222. This includes both CA-13 and CA-22. If they were to lose both of those then its 220 max.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1592326686431121413

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1592326686431121413

Rise of the Clyburn

[Joe Republic]

There is only one possible Speaker candidate to lead the most dysfunctional coalition of chaos in living memory:

Ed Miliband.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Jon Huntsman Jr? IDK.