Gubernatorial Predictions for 2023, 2024, and 2025

[Heebie Jeebie]

2023
This year will be a Republican sweep as Democrats lose the governorships in both Louisiana and Kentucky (despite Beshear's impressive approvals). 

2024
Democrats will pick up two governorships as Molly Gray beats Phil Scott in Vermont and Chris Pappas beats Chris Sununu in New Hampshire.  In Washington, Jay Inslee will not seek another term and Steve Hobbs will take his place.  Trinidad Navarro will win the governorship in Delaware, and Josh Stein will be the new governor of North Carolina.

2025
Josh Gottheimer will be the new governor of New Jersey, and Abigail Spanberger will be the new governor of Virginia.

[Roll Roons]

2024
Democrats will pick up two governorships as Molly Gray beats Phil Scott in Vermont and Chris Pappas beats Chris Sununu in New Hampshire.  In Washington, Jay Inslee will not seek another term and Steve Hobbs will take his place.  Trinidad Navarro will win the governorship in Delaware, and Josh Stein will be the new governor of North Carolina.

Lol

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Molly Gray beats Phil Scott in Vermont

So true bestie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neutral cycle no net gains

AZ for NV
LA for VA

26R-24D
AZ Katie Hobbs
DEL D
IN R
LA R
MD Wes Moore
MA Maura Healey
MS T Reeves*
MO J Ashcroft
MT G.Gianforte*
NV Lombardo
NH C SUNUNU*
NJ D
NY HOCHUL
NC J Stein
ND R
OR T Kotek
PA J Shapiro
UT R
VT P Scott*
VA D
WA J.Inslee*
WV R

[Lechasseur]

As of right now:

2023:
GOP: LA, MS
Dem: KY

2024:
GOP: NH, VT, NC, WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, UT
Dem: DE, WA

2025:
GOP: N/A
Dem: NJ, VA

Obviously this can (and likely will) change, but these are my predictions as of November 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As of right now:

2023:
GOP: LA, MS
Dem: KY

2024:
GOP: NH, VT, NC, WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, UT
Dem: DE, WA

2025:
GOP: N/A
Dem: NJ, VA

Obviously this can (and likely will) change, but these are my predictions as of November 2022

Josh Stein will win because Beasley lost and Jeff Jackson won it proves a moderate male can win in NC, it really depends on how in an off yr how Beshear does we know LA is gone

[windjammer]

I wouldn't be so sure about NC as apparently the republican lieutenant governor is considering and he's extreme.

As for Vermont and New Hampshire, both of them would have already served for 8 years. While they are still eligible maybe they won't run to run for president I don't know

[Lechasseur]

I wouldn't be so sure about NC as apparently the republican lieutenant governor is considering and he's extreme.

As for Vermont and New Hampshire, both of them would have already served for 8 years. While they are still eligible maybe they won't run to run for president I don't know

Yeah, I think a lot depends on whether the NC-LG is the GOP nominee or not, and to a lesser degree who the Democrats nominate.

I agree if the LG is the GOP nominee, the Democrats are favoured. However, in a generic R vs generic D matchup, the GOP would have to be favoured to take the Governor's office back.

Roy Cooper was arguably the best Democratic nominee in NC in the 21st Century. I don't think the NC Dems have other Roy Coopers waiting around, however I think a decent nominee should be able to beat the LG bar a GOP landslide at presidential level.

Then for NH and VT, the GOP is obviously favoured if Sununu and Scott run again. However, if they retire, those governorships would be favoured to flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be so sure about NC as apparently the republican lieutenant governor is considering and he's extreme.

As for Vermont and New Hampshire, both of them would have already served for 8 years. While they are still eligible maybe they won't run to run for president I don't know

Yeah, I think a lot depends on whether the NC-LG is the GOP nominee or not, and to a lesser degree who the Democrats nominate.

I agree if the LG is the GOP nominee, the Democrats are favoured. However, in a generic R vs generic D matchup, the GOP would have to be favoured to take the Governor's office back.

Roy Cooper was arguably the best Democratic nominee in NC in the 21st Century. I don't think the NC Dems have other Roy Coopers waiting around, however I think a decent nominee should be able to beat the LG bar a GOP landslide at presidential level.

Then for NH and VT, the GOP is obviously favoured if Sununu and Scott run again. However, if they retire, those governorships would be favoured to flip.

Biden wasn't on the ballot in 22 some of these especially Red states went overly R because Biden wasn't on the ballot like NC and FL Biden won Miami Dade and almost won NC and WI Barnes definitely would of won if Biden was on ballot Johnson overly performance in WOW county that Evers and Biden won

I am confident Josh Stein will do better than Beasley did with Biden on the ballot Jeff Jackson won too that proves my pt

[Red Wall]

2023:
GOP hold: MS
GOP gain: KY, LA

2024:
DEM hold: WA, DE
GOP hold: IN, MO, MT, ND, UT, WV
GOP gain: NC
NH, VT: if Sununu and Scott run, GOP hold, if not, DEM gain

2025:
DEM gain: VA
NJ: if GOP wins WH, DEM hold, if DEM wins WH, GOP gain.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Lol

See, this is why I like this place.  Quick and easy way to see which predictions are reasonable and which aren't.  So to update my priors:

2023
Republicans will win in Mississippi and Louisiana, but Andy Beshear will squeak through into a second term (making him a front-runner for the 2028 national ticket, probably as Harris's running mate).

2024
Democrats will pick up one governorship as Chris Pappas beats Chris Sununu in New Hampshire.  In Washington, Jay Inslee will not seek another term and Steve Hobbs will take his place.  Trinidad Navarro will win the governorship in Delaware, and Josh Stein will be the new governor of North Carolina.

2025
Josh Gottheimer will be the new governor of New Jersey, and Abigail Spanberger will be the new governor of Virginia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2023:
GOP hold: MS
GOP gain: KY, LA

2024:
DEM hold: WA, DE
GOP hold: IN, MO, MT, ND, UT, WV
GOP gain: NC
NH, VT: if Sununu and Scott run, GOP hold, if not, DEM gain

2025:
DEM gain: VA
NJ: if GOP wins WH, DEM hold, if DEM wins WH, GOP gain.

Rs aren't winning WH we held onto MI, WI and PA and VA will return D

[Spectator]

Republicans gain Louisiana in 2023, possibly Kentucky, though I’m not making any confident predictions there after having egg on my face in 2019.

Republicans could gain NC in 2024, but Stein has proven to be a winner in a Trump electorate. Dems flip NH and/or VT if Sununu or Scott retire or lose a primary.

Spanberger wins VA in 2025. I don’t see any other Dems giving her much of a challenge for the nomination.

[Figueira]

I wouldn't be so sure about NC as apparently the republican lieutenant governor is considering and he's extreme.

As for Vermont and New Hampshire, both of them would have already served for 8 years. While they are still eligible maybe they won't run to run for president I don't know

I could see Sununu running for President maybe. Phil Scott running for President would be nonsensical. Both could retire though.

[oldtimer]

Republicans gain Louisiana in 2023, possibly Kentucky, though I’m not making any confident predictions there after having egg on my face in 2019.

Republicans could gain NC in 2024, but Stein has proven to be a winner in a Trump electorate. Dems flip NH and/or VT if Sununu or Scott retire or lose a primary.

Spanberger wins VA in 2025. I don’t see any other Dems giving her much of a challenge for the nomination.

I don't know about VA and NJ.

Republicans either won or came close to winning both of them last year and the political climate may be worse for Democrats in 3 years.

[Skill and Chance]

Republicans gain Louisiana in 2023, possibly Kentucky, though I’m not making any confident predictions there after having egg on my face in 2019.

Republicans could gain NC in 2024, but Stein has proven to be a winner in a Trump electorate. Dems flip NH and/or VT if Sununu or Scott retire or lose a primary.

Spanberger wins VA in 2025. I don’t see any other Dems giving her much of a challenge for the nomination.

I don't know about VA and NJ.

Republicans either won or came close to winning both of them last year and the political climate may be worse for Democrats in 3 years.

I would say they are both Tilt D if a Democrat is still president and Likely D if a Republican is president.  They both tend to swing quite strongly against the incumbent party. 

[jamestroll]

Republicans gain Louisiana in 2023, possibly Kentucky, though I’m not making any confident predictions there after having egg on my face in 2019.

Republicans could gain NC in 2024, but Stein has proven to be a winner in a Trump electorate. Dems flip NH and/or VT if Sununu or Scott retire or lose a primary.

Spanberger wins VA in 2025. I don’t see any other Dems giving her much of a challenge for the nomination.

I don't know about VA and NJ.

Republicans either won or came close to winning both of them last year and the political climate may be worse for Democrats in 3 years.

I would say they are both Tilt D if a Democrat is still president and Likely D if a Republican is president.  They both tend to swing quite strongly against the incumbent party. 

Yea.

if Biden is president I will be for Spanberger

if a Republican is president, I will be more open to a more liberal candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans gain Louisiana in 2023, possibly Kentucky, though I’m not making any confident predictions there after having egg on my face in 2019.

Republicans could gain NC in 2024, but Stein has proven to be a winner in a Trump electorate. Dems flip NH and/or VT if Sununu or Scott retire or lose a primary.

Spanberger wins VA in 2025. I don’t see any other Dems giving her much of a challenge for the nomination.

I don't know about VA and NJ.

Republicans either won or came close to winning both of them last year and the political climate may be worse for Democrats in 3 years.

I would say they are both Tilt D if a Democrat is still president and Likely D if a Republican is president.  They both tend to swing quite strongly against the incumbent party. 

Yea.

if Biden is president I will be for Spanberger

if a Republican is president, I will be more open to a more liberal candidate.

Rs aren't winning the WH