My take on the GOP Primary in 2024...

[2016]

Here is the thing: If every single State who has a Republican Caucus or a Primary ALLOWS that Contest to be "OPEN" meaning that Independents can participate TRUMP WILL LOSE the Nomination.

His Favorables with Republican-leaning Independents are "In the Toilet".

Youngkin (2021), Kemp (2022), DeSantis (2022) all won Independents in their Elections and if they are winning them back in 2021 and on Tuesday there is no reason to believe that they won't win them in 2024.

Thoughts?

Chime in

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

First, for Trump to lose, there needs to be unified opposition. His base of support is too strong for anyone to consolidate support fast enough in a split field.

The other issue is that whoever takes him on needs to be able to withstand an attack barrage that would make general election campaigns look like nothing - and they need to be able to fight back effectively. I don't think Youngkin or Kemp could withstand that, and both are too mild-mannered to get in the mud with Trump.

I think DeSantis has by far the best shot, because he's a more well-mannered junkyard dog like Trump. But I actually think another strong candidate for this spot is Tim Scott. His conservative bona fides are just fine, he's charismatic and likable, and his presence in the race makes it more likely that Trump will say something absolutely horrible and lose what establishment support he has.

[2016]

I disagree with you that "Trumps Base is too strong". He won many contests in 2016 with 35 % or less in 2016 and I imagine that his support is down from that year given the turmoil he did over the last 8 years.