I told you crime would animate the moribund LIGOP--and it did

[pikachu]

The results in Downstate New York, jarring and unpleasant as they are, have unironically vindicated a lot of bronzian #analysis of the region, although it's interesting to note that this didn't really carry over into North Jersey.

Long Island and Staten Island being insular has been discussed plenty on PG & D, but not often noted is that they are literal islands. Everyone and everything travelling in or out of Long Island must pass through the city. It magnifies local NYC issues in a way that probably isn't possible in areas that are accessible to the rest of the world.

That closed off quality prevents new blood from coming in. It's generations of NYC paranoia among Long Island ethic whites at this point. Zeldin harnessed it well. A lot of my peer group now works in NYC. Living in Bergen or Hudson County is normal, but living in Staten Island or Long Island is laughed off. Yuppies just aren't coming into Long Island and changing the character like they would in Northeast Jersey or Westchester.

Yeah, this manifests itself in policy too. Long Island is the most hardcore NIMBY and anti-apartment part of the Tri-State area.

[Suburbia]

The results in Downstate New York, jarring and unpleasant as they are, have unironically vindicated a lot of bronzian #analysis of the region, although it's interesting to note that this didn't really carry over into North Jersey.

Long Island and Staten Island being insular has been discussed plenty on PG & D, but not often noted is that they are literal islands. Everyone and everything travelling in or out of Long Island must pass through the city. It magnifies local NYC issues in a way that probably isn't possible in areas that are accessible to the rest of the world.

That closed off quality prevents new blood from coming in. It's generations of NYC paranoia among Long Island ethic whites at this point. Zeldin harnessed it well. A lot of my peer group now works in NYC. Living in Bergen or Hudson County is normal, but living in Staten Island or Long Island is laughed off. Yuppies just aren't coming into Long Island and changing the character like they would in Northeast Jersey or Westchester.

Yeah, this manifests itself in policy too. Long Island is the most hardcore NIMBY and anti-apartment part of the Tri-State area.

Because it has a suburban character. And no, Long Island is not some suburban alt-right hotbed. It is a swing area that was once Republican until Clinton's suburban appeals shifted it in the 1990s.

LI voted for Obama against the war hero McCain, it voted against George Bush after 9/11 when most of the 9/11 victims were from the island.

It's not Orange County, CA or Mountain Brook, AL, because even Obama could not win those areas. But he won LI easily in '08 and '12. Hillary Clinton carried Nassau in 2016 and Trump barely won Suffolk in 2020--despite BLM.

[free my dawg]

My king is alive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW it looks like every Long Island Democratic candidate underran Biden more than Ilhan Omar did. In fact it looks like at least one did even more than that Putin supporting guy in Kentucky(!)...absolutely yikes.

[Vosem]

The results in Downstate New York, jarring and unpleasant as they are, have unironically vindicated a lot of bronzian #analysis of the region, although it's interesting to note that this didn't really carry over into North Jersey.

It kind of did carry over into North Jersey -- Josh Gottheimer and Bill Pascrell were both held to single-digits, even though both had quite safe seats. (I don't know how a big of a deal late counting is in NJ, so if this is red mirage then I apologize). OTOH, it didn't extend anywhere outside of the NY metropolitan area; Sherrill, Kim, and Pallone all won very easy victories. (Pallone had been on the long-list of places the GOP was trying to compete if Democratic margins with minorities and WWC reduced; that didn't happen, but Pascrell legitimately turned in an awful performance.)

[Suburbia]

The results in Downstate New York, jarring and unpleasant as they are, have unironically vindicated a lot of bronzian #analysis of the region, although it's interesting to note that this didn't really carry over into North Jersey.

It kind of did carry over into North Jersey -- Josh Gottheimer and Bill Pascrell were both held to single-digits, even though both had quite safe seats. (I don't know how a big of a deal late counting is in NJ, so if this is red mirage then I apologize). OTOH, it didn't extend anywhere outside of the NY metropolitan area; Sherrill, Kim, and Pallone all won very easy victories. (Pallone had been on the long-list of places the GOP was trying to compete if Democratic margins with minorities and WWC reduced; that didn't happen, but Pascrell legitimately turned in an awful performance.)

Pascrell is a feisty man but the fact that he won by 9 points by a no-name in a district that includes Paterson shows that Pascrell should retire in 2024.

Give the seat to younger blood.

Pascrell and Pallone should have headlined the NJDP in the 2000s, not McGreevey or Corzine.

[Alben Barkley]

What a perfect post to return on. Didn’t miss a beat!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

snip

Dang it BRTD, the meter would have fit if you'd gone with just “hacks” my disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.

What if it's just "Dull hacks" instead of "the hacks"?

(in the original song it's just "death")

[Joseph Cao]

snip

Dang it BRTD, the meter would have fit if you'd gone with just “hacks” my disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.

What if it's just "Dull hacks" instead of "the hacks"?

(in the original song it's just "death")

"Hacks" can replace "Death" directly, is what I was going for. None of this "dull" business messing up the song's rhythm.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

snip

Dang it BRTD, the meter would have fit if you'd gone with just “hacks” my disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.

What if it's just "Dull hacks" instead of "the hacks"?

(in the original song it's just "death")

"Hacks" can replace "Death" directly, is what I was going for. None of this "dull" business messing up the song's rhythm.

Good point.

Regardless the lack of a red wave meant that I can "raise a hallelujah louder than the unbelief"!

[Joseph Cao]

snip

Dang it BRTD, the meter would have fit if you'd gone with just “hacks” my disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.

What if it's just "Dull hacks" instead of "the hacks"?

(in the original song it's just "death")

"Hacks" can replace "Death" directly, is what I was going for. None of this "dull" business messing up the song's rhythm.

Good point.

Regardless the lack of a red wave meant that I can "raise a hallelujah louder than the unbelief"!

Let me get back to you when more people take Psalm 146:3 to heart and put less of their trust in princes!