2008 Republican Convention bounce

[Reaganfan]

In July 2000, Governor George Bush recieved a 17 pt bounce after choosing Secretary Dick Cheney as his running mate, and then had another large bounce following the Republican National Convention. Gore's bounce occured after he chose Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate and then after the Democratic National Convention in August 2000.

Since the Republican National Convention is being held the first week of September, one week after the Democratic National Convention, what are the chances the Republican ticket could enter mid-September with a sizeable lead?

[Padfoot]

I'd say it's more likely that Republicans will enter mid-September tied with the Democrats.  Then after the "GOP bounce" dies off, Democrats will reclaim their sizeable lead.

[True Democrat]

Don't you think we should be talking about the tickets and what happens in the summer of 2008 before you can talk about the Republican convention bounce?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think by Sept. 11th, 2008, Americans will be very sick of the Republicans trying to milk the fact that it was they who ignored the 8/06/01 memo titled "Bin Laden determined to strike US" and allowed Al Qaeda to attack the US for all it's worth.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Also, Bush will give a speech at the Republican National Convention. If things keep going the way they are and Bush has Bob Taft-like approval ratings at that point, then that could cause the convention to have a negative bounce.

[Reignman]

I'd say it's more likely that Republicans will enter mid-September tied with the Democrats.  Then after the "GOP bounce" dies off, Democrats will reclaim their sizeable lead.