Who has won Arizona?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Katie Hobbs: 50.4%
Kari Lake: 49.6%

16,677 ahead

Estimated vote in: 76%

[One Term Floridian]

I've got a good feeling about Hobbes actually winning this outright, especially after that last batch came in heavily for Dems. I think there's a good chance they flip AZ-06 as well.

[Hammy]

It's fairly unlikely given the state has decided to count as slowly as possible, but it would be fitting if Arizona is called for Hobbs today, on Veterans Day, given Lake's frequent disrespect towards McCain

[Podgy the Bear]

Definitely hopeful about Hobbs--and she has beaten expectations.

We need to remember that Arizona is a state that elects nut case Republican governors: Evan Mecham and Jan Brewer come to mind.  And bank fraud criminals like Fife Symington.  So a Kari Lake victory would be nothing new for this state.

[TodayJunior]

I still think Lake has the upper hand here. The day of election ballots have yet to be counted. The uncalled races between NV/AZ i think split 2/2, gop takes the governorships, Dems the senate seats.

[Tekken_Guy]

I still think Lake has the upper hand here. The day of election ballots have yet to be counted. The uncalled races between NV/AZ i think split 2/2, gop takes the governorships, Dems the senate seats.

Lake really isn't outrunning Trump anywhere except Yuma County in the completed counties.

[Frodo]

Katie Hobbs: 50.4%
Kari Lake: 49.6%

16,677 ahead

Estimated vote in: 76%

Though the percentages have hardly moved, Hobbes has doubled her raw vote lead:

Katie Hobbes: 50.7%
Kari Lake: 49.3%

31,097 votes ahead, with 84% of the vote in. 

[Spectator]

I don’t see a way to victory for Lake anymore. Hobbs has it. Biggest question is how AG and Super go.

[AnOdyssey]

Looking at my predictions for Governor, I was spot on, except for Arizona. I am glad to be proven wrong on predicting Lake wrong.

Unfortunately, I was wrong about the margin for DeSantis though. Obviously I knew DeSantis was going to win re-election, didn't believe it would be a total blow out.

[Ljube]

It seems to me that Hobbs will win.
This is so strange.
Who votes for a person that doesn't want to have a debate?

[SWE]

It seems to me that Hobbs will win.
This is so strange.
Who votes for a person that doesn't want to have a debate?

I guess more people are concerned with policy than meaningless theatrics

[Ferguson97]

It seems to me that Hobbs will win.
This is so strange.
Who votes for a person that doesn't want to have a debate?

Why would anyone but politics-obsessed nerds care if she debates or not? I never understood why Atlas was so adamant that this would kill her chances.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It seems to me that Hobbs will win.
This is so strange.
Who votes for a person that doesn't want to have a debate?

ask all the people who'll vote for the Republican nominee in 2024 after no debates due to the new RNC policy.

[Alben Barkley]

It seems to me that Hobbs will win.
This is so strange.
Who votes for a person that doesn't want to have a debate?

People who think that matters way, way less than being a fascist who doesn’t believe in democracy, has no qualifications for the job, and is rumored to be a favorite of Donald Trump for VP?

[Panda Express]

It seems to me that Hobbs will win.
This is so strange.
Who votes for a person that doesn't want to have a debate?

Not debating Lake probably did ding her slightly

But given the nature of who Lake is (loudmouth conspiracy nutter), I'm willing to bet most reasonable voters more or less gave Hobbs a pass for this decision.

[DaleCooper]

The last batch of Pinal County votes was catastrophic for Kari Lake. Kind of indicates that the remaining Maricopa ballots won't be all that favorable to her either. Even if they are, she has to over-perform in the remaining drops even more to make up for coming up short elsewhere in the state.

[here2view]

Hobbs by a little over 1%

[DaleCooper]

Hobbs by a little over 1%

NBC is still showing Hobbs at 1.6 above Lake, has this changed?

[SnowLabrador]

Hobbs by a little over 1%

NBC is still showing Hobbs at 1.6 above Lake, has this changed?

I think they mean that the margin is going to go down once more Maricopa ballots are counted. But I agree, Lake is unlikely to catch up at this point.

[DaleCooper]

Hobbs by a little over 1%

NBC is still showing Hobbs at 1.6 above Lake, has this changed?

I think they mean that the margin is going to go down once more Maricopa ballots are counted. But I agree, Lake is unlikely to catch up at this point.

Oh yes, of course. I can't believe I couldn't figure that out.

I misread the second word of Jon Ralston's command to "Do math" and I haven't been the same since.

[Skill and Chance]

The last batch of Pinal County votes was catastrophic for Kari Lake. Kind of indicates that the remaining Maricopa ballots won't be all that favorable to her either. Even if they are, she has to over-perform in the remaining drops even more to make up for coming up short elsewhere in the state.

Yes, AZ is staying just about the same with the late updates this year, no obvious late R trend like 2020 or late D trend like 2018.  Same with CA so far (D numbers statewide went up slightly, but that's mainly because the Bay Area was lagging in the count).

[Not Me, Us]

Hobbs by a little over 1%

NBC is still showing Hobbs at 1.6 above Lake, has this changed?

I think they mean that the margin is going to go down once more Maricopa ballots are counted. But I agree, Lake is unlikely to catch up at this point.

Oh yes, of course. I can't believe I couldn't figure that out.

I misread the second word of Jon Ralston's command to "Do math" and I haven't been the same since.

Jesse! We need to run a model of the latest Pima drop!

Yo Mr. White, Maricopa's still out and Hobbs has been holding by more than she needs to, bi***!

[Orwell]

Katie Hobbs who did everything wrong looks to be riding Kelly's coattails into office.