AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[xavier110]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

[xavier110]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

True. But if they wanna win statewide they’ve got to make some difficult choices with a thin bench of Not Trumpy candidates

[xavier110]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

True. But if they wanna win statewide they’ve got to make some difficult choices with a thin bench of Not Trumpy candidates

One thing I realized about how bad the AZ bench is that even if Dems lose the Superintendent race to Tom Horne, the guy is freaking 77 years old. Obviously not future Senate or Governor material. The bench of “good” candidates is essentially just Yee and Ciscomani (if he even wins this year which is looking iffy). But they have to survive a primary in a state that constantly produces freak shows out of GOP primaries. I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

You can’t forget Wendy Rogers either.

Speaking of the legislature, I think one to look out for is state sen JD Mesnard. He is very conservative but has managed to win a Biden/Kelly LD for years now. He could throw a lot of red meat but maintain some decorum.

He would be on message and not inflammatory.

[xavier110]

Does Sinema have a chance in the primary? I'm worried that her incumbency might be too much to overcome.

My gut says she’s toast, but, yes, two years is an eternity away. Bernie had surprising strength here in 16 and 20, and we have a small Black population/D “machine” voter base that would fall in line with the party apparatus. Lots of educated white libs here now—and they’re probably not voting Sinema. Couple that with Gallego likely running well with Hispanics and I don’t know what Sinema’s coalition would even look like.

The Gallego clip dunking on Sinema is hilarious. “Sinema this, Sinema that, Sinema…” “So are you primarying her?” “I have not decided but Sinema sucks, Sinema this, Sinema that.”

[xavier110]

Does Arizona have closed primaries? If so, what Dems would still vote for her?

The biggest risk at this stage has got to be splitting the anti-Sinema primary vote. She might squeak through with 25% if there are 3 or more.

Indies may participate.

[xavier110]

Sinema is not running in 2024. I’m almost positive. If she is then she has the worst political instincts imaginable

Why wouldn't she just switch parties instead?

We know she can't win the Dem primary, but the GOP primary could be fixed for her.
She would have no problem winning in the general running as a Republican.

Mark fricking Brnovich and Doug Ducey couldn’t win a GOP primary in 2022, but Sinema somehow could in 2024. Are you for real?

[xavier110]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

[xavier110]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

You are so sure he will win? I - don't. Arizona is still very purple state, may be - even slightly red, when Republicans nominate "normal" candidate like Kimberly Yee.... And Sinema (in case of her race as Indie) will, undoubtedly, get more Democratic-leaning votes then Republican-leaning. So, in such case Democrats have a very good chance to lose (after all - they almost lost an Oregon governorship this year in similar situation, despite Oregon being much more Democratic and liberal, then Arizona)....

I am not sure he wins, but it’s a gamble worth taking unless we want to be stuck with Sinema forever (or potentially Sen Kelli Ward for a term). It’s a real test of the D party.

[xavier110]

If she runs in 2024 and loses, what are her future prospects? Similar to Tulsi Gabbard?

She becomes Trump’s VP nominee in 2024 and writes a book called Cancel Culture: How I Survived My Cancellation as a Swing State Pink Haired Bisexual Democrat. She completes the cycle we have seen before with Russian trolls, going from anti war leftie to Neo Nazi MAGA.

[xavier110]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/23/sinema-trashes-dems-gop-00088461

That woman does seem to have a loose screw or two. The word that comes to mind is narcissist, a condition that I have been told is incurable.

I am not sure how effective she will be as a lobbyist however, when she is no longer needed. So one wonders what her plan will be to maintain her lavish lifestyle. That seems to be job one. Her sartorial choices remind me of what I see from time to time what I see when Dan watches fashion shows. The outfits are not what one typically sees on the street or anywhere else for that matter, other than the runways on which the models strut.

She should be very easy to manipulate since she’s a total narcissist. Who’s the highest bidder

[xavier110]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Sinema is an extremely toxic topic in Democratic voting circles, if anything she'll more likely take votes away from disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

"McCainite Republicans" voted Hobbs and our at this point a part of a winning Democrat coalition in AZ.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/opinions/kari-lake-mccain-arizona-republicans-gabriel/index.html

Lake came very close to winning despite telling McCain supporters not to vote for her.

Sinema is incredibly unpopular in left wing voting circles but those McCain Republicans  are likely voters that dems still need in AZ

Yeah. It’s hard for me to tell if these folks are officially Ds (since so many have now voted that way for 8 years…) or can be lured back. My guess is yes to both

[xavier110]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Sinema is an extremely toxic topic in Democratic voting circles, if anything she'll more likely take votes away from disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

"McCainite Republicans" voted Hobbs and our at this point a part of a winning Democrat coalition in AZ.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/opinions/kari-lake-mccain-arizona-republicans-gabriel/index.html

Lake came very close to winning despite telling McCain supporters not to vote for her.

Sinema is incredibly unpopular in left wing voting circles but those McCain Republicans  are likely voters that dems still need in AZ

Yeah. It’s hard for me to tell if these folks are officially Ds (since so many have now voted that way for 8 years…) or can be lured back. My guess is yes to both

Where are you getting 8 years from? Ducey 2014? McCain 2016? It's more like 4 years starting in 2018 with Sinema.

A lot of them didn’t vote for Trump in 2016. He had a very poor showing for top of ticket R

[xavier110]

The NYT published a profile of Sinema the other day. Very weird piece that is largely hagiography with an occasional questioning of her tossed in for good measure. If you were to read it, you’d walk away thinking she’s the greatest legislator of all time.

Said another way, I found it interesting that almost every source/character witness praises her while the recitation of her bio to me makes her sound unhinged, lol.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1701738526625411226?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

Lake is off her rocker, lmao. “Do you think I won, Blake? Do you think I won?”

Very Norma Desmond, Sunset Blvd.

[xavier110]

Kari Lake talking about decorum?

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[xavier110]

At least she's being honest with herself that she's going to get more Republicans than Democrats.

Not surprised though that she's pushing the same "both parties are gonna nominate extremists!!!" line.

Yeah, at least this analysis seems to be grounded in reality. I expect she jumps in, betting Lake gets nominated and that the moneyed GOP donors consolidate around her as they expect Lake to implode in a GE.

I don’t think it’s likely, but if we get stuck with another six years of this woman… oy.

[xavier110]

Prediction of Senate endorsements in a Lake, Sinema, Gallego race

Sinema:
Officially:
Manchin
Collins
Murkowski
Romney

Some establishment GOP senators support unofficially

Lake:
Vast majority of senate Rs including Daines

Neutral: Kelley, Tester

Gallego- All other Senate Dems.  

By Kelley, do you mean Mark Kelly? I think he ultimately endorses Gallego. Sinema did the bare minimum for Democrats here in 22 (you could argue, though, that few wanted her attention) and even said stuff like “regardless of who wins I can work with anyone” while also claiming that Kelly would win re-election.

It’s been a relationship of convenience, in my opinion, and Kelly has little reason to keep it going.

[xavier110]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

Does AZ have more of these type of "republicans" than PA, NV, GA, WI, MI, etc.. Just feels like Dems hit 10% of the GOP vote pretty easily and a lot more common in AZ that other swing states.

To help situate you, let’s use the Wisconsin WOW counties as an example. Professional, suburban, historically GOP. 400k votes in 2020.

Apply the same trends/demographics, broadly speaking (there are differences, of course), to Maricopa, but also consider that it produces 2 million votes.

That is why AZ feels a little different. You could argue this was always a little overdue, since Phoenix and its surrounding areas didn’t operate like some mega-Dem electoral machine like other urban metros.

Separately, it is an interesting argument re: whose voters were “weaker” supporters — Lake or Hobbs.   How many people held their nose for Lake vs. Hobbs… you can argue that the Kelly/Sinema/Biden voters were always gonna pick Hobbs, it’s true. But I do think they would have dabbled with Robson. And certainly some Lake voters very, very reluctantly went with her and would have jumped for Robson. Interesting situation.

[xavier110]

I'm so sorry to Arizona for having to experience another Kari Lake campaign so soon after the last one.

*sobs quietly*

I hope this ends up a Gallego vs Sinema race and Lake just lurks in last for most of it, tbh.

[xavier110]

Wonder if Lake will try to pull a similar stunt on Sinema or if she doesn't really view Sinema as a threat to her chances of winning (could also be because Sinema isn't officially in the race yet). I can't even imagine what Sinema would do in this scenario. But she probably does like this exchange since she can use it as proof of being above the fray of partisan bickering.

Lake goes after everyone lol I'm sure she'll confront her over Trump or something.
Ngl a good strategy for Lake would be to attack Sinema and force her to defend her left-wing positions, therefore making her less popular with Republicans.

It would be risky because a large reason why these Republicans like Sinema and not her/Trump is temperament. The “Kari Lake bullies people” strategy does not endear her to them and makes her look weak and dumb (meanwhile, the average GOP primary voter thinks it projects strength…part of the reason why Trumpism is an electoral gamble).

[xavier110]

What's the chatter this week about Jeff DeWitt attempting to bribe Lake to drop out of the race?

There’s a recording of him repeatedly telling Lake that very powerful people on the East Coast want her gone. He asks her not to run and instead take a corporate gig, where she can presumably do nothing and get paid millions. He even outright asks her her price, LOL. It’s a very, very odd recording. I wondered if it was a deepfake, but it seems to be real?

The best part is when DeWitt suggests that he has no power, that “they” do and if he crosses them, he jokes his car will explode when he tries to turn it on one day.

You’d think he would just say Kari, you lost a very winnable race and now people are doubtful you can do it. Sail away into the sunset. But instead it becomes very conspiratorial (maybe he’s just trying to meet her where she is and mirror her language?).

Either way, great conspiracy fodder. You have to approach it knowing that Kari is performing, like always, aware that she’s recording this.

[xavier110]

Nothing will probably top this as the funniest political moment of 2024:

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1760269026490753442

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1760346193630990352

[xavier110]

Nothing will probably top this as the funniest political moment of 2024:

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1760269026490753442

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1760346193630990352

Was Lake's account hacked or is this pure irony?

To quote McCain: “My entire take on this situation is just that the internal polling for Kari Lake’s campaign must be just staggeringly awful and scary to them when it comes to Independents and McCain Republicans not voting for her.”

[xavier110]

The martyrdom complex. Good riddance.

[xavier110]

In AZ, the calculus is pretty simple. If you’re very MAGA, you probably lose to anti-MAGA, provided that the race is viewed through that lens. At the moment, Kari Lake is viewed as MAGA and Gallego anti-MAGA, and I don’t see that really changing, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket.

Gallego is leaning into the Marine shtick in anticipation of being painted as a fire breathing lib. Granted, the pinko commie lib stuff didn’t really work against Sinema, Hobbs, etc., so shrug. As long as he’s viewed more as anti-MAGA, he should prevail.