AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Dani Rose]

So I feel like Kelly's seemingly inevitable victory opens up the question: who do we want to primary Sinema in 2024? Gallego seems like the popular choice, and from a socialist perspective I really want to want him, but I also seem to recall he had some kind of skeleton fall out of his closet around 2018. Very hazy on that, though.

[Dani Rose]

I wonder who the GOP nominates in 2024.

This will be competitive if the GOP nominates someone sane, and that's a big if.

Top-tier recruits would be Juan Ciscomani (if he doesn't make lots of mistakes in his first term), Doug Ducey, Kimberly Yee, Mark Brnovich, or even Karrin Taylor Robson.

Mid-tier recruits would be Andy Biggs, Debbie Lesko, or David Schweikert.

Bottom-tier would be Mark Finchem, Paul Gosar, Wendy Rogers, or Kelli Ward.

I hope they choose from the third group.

I fully expect someone promising from their hobbled GOP establishment to run and promptly get taken out by Wendy Rogers. I especially see it if the establishment candidate is Ciscomani, given that...well, I'll just leave it at diplomatically suggesting that Rogers, given her beliefs and political alliances, wouldn't be especially fond of someone like him.

[Dani Rose]

Whoever wins in 2024, it won't be the Republican, and that's the most important thing. I also don't even slightly expect Sinema to draw enough Democratic votes to actually win. The state of the race stays the same, just much more annoying.

[Dani Rose]

If Republicans did manage to court her for 2024, it has the potential to be a huge PR coup for the party.  They could use her to blunt pretty much every Dem attack based on pre-2015 social issues. 

Yyyyeah...not really. Democrats see right through her and she would be completely unpalatable to the Arizona GOP base.

[Dani Rose]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

[Dani Rose]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

Why on earth would he push for that when Dems have already lost the House and are staring down the Class I Senate map in 2024?  Can you say Federal Abortion Ban Act of 2025?

I mean, I don't think they end it entirely, but maybe weakening it in terms of where it applies. I do see your point, though.

[Dani Rose]

Sinema's only hope is if the democrats nominated someone like Martin Quezada and republicans nominated Andy Biggs/Mark Lamb. Then she could successfully frame herself as the "sane" option. If the democrat is a generic democrat like Stanton or even an establishment friendly progressive like Gallego she's doomed

The other thing here is that both Gallego and Stanton are likely to prove broadly acceptable to most Democrats.  So you’re unlikely to see a ton of left-wing protest votes against Stanton or a ton of moderate protest votes against Gallego assuming a reasonably competent campaign and no major unforeseen skeletons in the closet.  Even a Stanton vs. Gallego primary isn’t gonna leave the loser’s supporters going “screw this, now I’m voting for Sinema.”  She’s too widely despised to even make a good protest vote option.

People who claim that Gallego is "too far left" are especially in for a rude awakening.

I also think Stanton is too. He wouldn't go far in a primary. What's the argument? He's slightly more palatable to conservatives? I dk if that's even true. If anything, it's following the Kyrsten Sinema logic that being a moderate hero just entails taking more money from divisive industries unpopular with our base.

I fully believe the AZGOP is going to finally commit electoral harakiri and nominate Wendy Rogers or Paul Gosar, as well. Pennsylvania has proven that Democrats and independents alike will rally around a progressive, like Fetterman or Gallego, when the Republican is repulsive enough. It also proved that just being the moderate option, the way Lamb positioned himself and Stanton most likely would, is not remotely enough to win a primary on its own.

[Dani Rose]

I've seen people wanting Masters to run again. I have zero doubt that he would finish in third place.

Oh good heavens that would be terrible, by which I mean amazing for us. I can't tell what would end worse for the AZGOP, retreading Masters or nominating one of their resident Nazi sympathizers, ergo Rogers or Gosar.