AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Landslide Lyndon]

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.

Sure, but what are the odds of the AZ GOP actually nominating such a person?

I don't know but I wouldn't want to risk it. Republicans lost many winnable seats in 2010 and 2012 because they nominated tea party kooks but they seemed to learn their lesson and in 2014 and 2016 things went smoothly for establishment candidates. Maybe that's what will happen in 2024 too.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).

She voted twice to convict Trump. She is DOA in a Republican primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also is Sinema really at much risk for losing a primary challenge? In 2014 winter McCain was like net -20 with Republicans. AZ GOP censured him and his opponent was a right wing base candidate Kelli Ward (sound familiar). In the end though he ended up winning his primary election with 51% of the vote. Primarying out a sitting senator is much harder than it seems.

Sinema doesn't have the national profile of McCain who was a fixture of Arizona politics for decades.
And Gallego isn't a nutjob like Ward.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1601194770679873539

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1601194770679873539

When they say "intends" I'm curious to know what that means.

Did she tell Schumer that this was her plan and asked if she could stay on the Committees? Or does she assume that's she's entitled to these committee assignments even while doing a stunt like this?

According to reports both Biden and Schumer knew at least since Tuesday.

[Landslide Lyndon]

All these scenarios are predicated on the notion that Sinema is a skillful politician who has her finger on the pulse of her constituents.
Is that really the impression anyone got the last four years instead of a weirdo consumed by her own narcissism and constant need for self-promotion?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, the Republican Party will probably want Sinema to be on the ballot, so I can envision some behind the scenes assistance with signature gathering.

Not if the polls show her siphoning more votes from them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This doomer article about the bleak prospects of Senate Dems article in 2024 posits in a conclusory manner that the Pubs have the inside lane to win the AZ seat if Sinema runs as an independent. Why would anyone who is other than in equipoise between the Dem and Pub nominees vote for her unless she had a chance to win? Are people who embrace that analysis just clueless or are they trolls, or am I missing something?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/opinion/kyrsten-sinema-arizona.html

You are talking about the New York Times, the paper that just a couple of days ago had an article saying that Elon Musk's ideology is a mystery.

[Landslide Lyndon]

She's betting on Gallego and Finchem being nominated and then saying "look at the far left and far right" vote for a moderate instead! I think she absolutely could pull it off if she plays her cards right and plays for the moderates. She also has incumbency advantage which helps.

Just like she did until now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1604198918098518016

[Landslide Lyndon]

Part of it will probably depend upon the national "vibes". The worse things are, the more partisanship will kick in. It also depends upon how Gallego (or whoever the D is) ends up defining himself; by nature of primarying a moderate D incumbent from the left, he is going to be labeled a bunch of things that he probably doesn't want and will try and fight against.

Gallego ain't going to primary anybody. Sinema is an independent and can't run in the Democratic primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kyrsten-sinema-democratic-consultants_n_63a22735e4b0f4895adfe33d

"If Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) decides to run for reelection next year, she’ll do so without the help of the big-name Democratic ad makers and pollsters who helped her win her Senate seat in 2018, and without access to the voter database maintained by the Democratic Party.

NGP VAN, which manages Democratic voter data, is set to cut off Sinema’s access at the end of January… The ad makers who worked with her in 2018, Dixon/Davis Media Group, have split with her campaign. Two other Democratic sources said polling firm Impact Research made the same decision.”

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Sinema actually runs, I predict she's most likely to end up like Jacob Javits in 1980, after he ran on the Liberal Party line following his loss in the Republican primary. She might even get less than 11% he got back then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York

Of course she will take less. Javits was a fixture of statewide New York politics for almost 30 years and well-liked in general. Sinema is a freshman senator who is loathed by Ds, Rs, and Is alike.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, what is with this CNN chyron? Who are the Dems that are not in yet? I literally haven't seen any Dems still sticking with Sinema and questioning supporting Gallego...

https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1618262532690677765

Dems in disarray.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.

She brought it to herself with her constant craving for attention, to the point of obnoxiousness.
It's really the same thing that made Joe Lieberman a persona non grata among progressives despite the fact that he was considerably more liberal than people like Ben Nelson and Mark Pryor.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm worried about Sinema attacking Gallego more than the republican honestly

And she'll look every bit like the entitled, petulant child she is.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Very skeptical that Sinema would approach 30% as an Independent:

The survey, which was conducted for Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC, tests out two different potential Republican candidates: conspiracy theorist Kari Lake, who claims she won the 2022 race for governor, and former Gov. Doug Ducey:

Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 45

Gallego (D): 36, Lake (R): 36, Sinema (I-inc): 24

Gallego (D): 37, Ducey (R): 31, Sinema (I-inc): 27

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/1/2150565/-New-Arizona-poll-shows-Gallego-can-win-even-if-Sinema-runs-but-senator-can-still-hinder-his-chances

I knew Arizonans have soured on Ducey but I didn't expect him doing so much worse than a nutjob like Lake.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hmmm...

https://mobile.twitter.com/sambrodey/status/1628757830701355010

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1635313490134183936

[Landslide Lyndon]

What impressed me more is how much she resents Manchin, no doubt because if it wasn't for him she would be the senate's foremost Moderate Hero.

[Landslide Lyndon]

She’ll get like 4% if the vote max when all is said and done. If she even bothers.

Well, increasingly looks like she's delusional enough, doesn't it?

You can't pay campaign staff and admakers with delusions.

[Landslide Lyndon]

She’ll get like 4% if the vote max when all is said and done. If she even bothers.

Well, increasingly looks like she's delusional enough, doesn't it?

You can't pay campaign staff and admakers with delusions.

She's gonna have a hard time recruiting talent.

Does anyone else wonder if she might just try to run as an R tho? These comments today are just so cringe. I think they will burn even more bridges.

She voted twice to convict Trump. No way in hell she goes through a Republican primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Let the show begin!

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1644393821864591372

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, that woman is a delusional moron.