AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[MargieCat]

So I feel like Kelly's seemingly inevitable victory opens up the question: who do we want to primary Sinema in 2024? Gallego seems like the popular choice, and from a socialist perspective I really want to want him, but I also seem to recall he had some kind of skeleton fall out of his closet around 2018. Very hazy on that, though.

First choice: Ruben Gallego

Second choice: Greg Stanton

[MargieCat]

I wonder who the GOP nominates in 2024.

This will be competitive if the GOP nominates someone sane, and that's a big if.

Top-tier recruits would be Juan Ciscomani (if he doesn't make lots of mistakes in his first term), Doug Ducey, Kimberly Yee, Mark Brnovich, or even Karrin Taylor Robson.

Mid-tier recruits would be Andy Biggs, Debbie Lesko, or David Schweikert.

Bottom-tier would be Mark Finchem, Paul Gosar, Wendy Rogers, or Kelli Ward.

I hope they choose from the third group.

[MargieCat]

I'm not convinced that as many insane Republicans will win statewide primaries in 2024. A lot of Republican voters that I've talked to are very upset about this midterms debacle. That's not to say they'll be moderates, but if Democrats expect more Mastrianos I think they're mistaken.

This is my opinion as well.

Democrats lucked out this cycle with the GOP nominating wackadoodles in lots of states. My instincts tell me that dark money will start invading the primaries, and more "electable" candidates will be propped up.

I was telling my father and brother that, and the next day, I saw a Politico article talking about Steve Daines taking a more hands on approach in primaries. I believe it will extend to other statewide races as well.

[MargieCat]

If Gallego does go for it who could run for his House seat? Is the current mayor of Phoenix (his ex-wife) too obvious an answer?

Reginald Bolding?

[MargieCat]

Surprised no one has mentioned the level of weight that Katie Hobbs will now have in the primary. She was the successor to Sinema in the state legislature and Hobbs has spoken fondly of her in the past. I have to imagine her increased level of prominence as the Governor now could help Sinema were Hobbs to back her. Same with Kelly, but probably to a lesser extent since Governor is more visible.

I feel like Governor Hobbs would remain neutral and avoid making an endorsement in a Sinema vs. Gallego primary.

I could see Senator Kelly staying neutral or endorsing Sinema.

[MargieCat]

When was the last time a candidate who lost a statewide general election made a successful statewide run immediately the following cycle? Particularly failed gubernatorial candidates?

Rosendale lost his senate race against Tester in 2018 but won MT-AL in the next cycle.

[MargieCat]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

Her buddies on the right (McConnell, Cornyn, etc) seem to want her to be re-elected. At first, I thought she would love to spoil the race and help a republican get elected.

But her buddies probably don't want someone as unhinged and mental as Kari Lake in their caucus. They'd honestly probably rather have Gallego than Kari Lake in the senate chamber, stirring the pot.

Kari Lake (and Blake Masters) would probably be right at home in the House where they can join the Freedom Caucus.

[MargieCat]

If Lake is the Republican nominee she may finish third in the general.

Related question: When was the last time a Democrat or a Republican came in third place in a Senate general election? This is discounting races in Maine and Vermont where King and Sanders are the de-facto Democratic nominees.

Rubio v. Crist vs. Meek?

[MargieCat]

Big news: Paul Penzone is resigning as Maricopa County Sheriff in January.

At one point, it was rumored he might be running for senate or AZ-01 against Schweikert. Not sure where his residence is, but are also several Maricopa Board of Supervisors seats he could be looking at.
https://twitter.com/Penzone4sheriff/status/1709026199677329705

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1710097797767196959

[MargieCat]