AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[DaleCooper]

I'm not convinced that as many insane Republicans will win statewide primaries in 2024. A lot of Republican voters that I've talked to are very upset about this midterms debacle. That's not to say they'll be moderates, but if Democrats expect more Mastrianos I think they're mistaken.

[DaleCooper]

I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?

People have no idea what they're talking about on financing campaigns anymore. You're absolutely right. People think "big money" is, well, big. It really, really isn't, in the age of ActBlue etc. It's wild how many people haven't noticed Dems outraising/outspending Rs basically everywhere ever in 2018, 2020, and 2022...and Indies have it much worse than Rs. Gallego will likely outraise her 5X or more every quarter, and the R will be way ahead of her as well. There is no ActBlue or WinRed for an independent candidate.

And you mentioned doorknocking, but, like I said in the other thread, she needs 42k signatures to get on the ballot. She'll need to pay signature gatherers, and they are expensive. No volunteers will touch this.

I think if she tries she PROBABLY gets on the ballot, but it's FAR from a sure thing.

Republican-aligned groups will pay to get her on the ballot.

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

This is gibberish.

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

No one who was ever open to voting for a Democrat is going to vote for Sinema at this point.  Also, any general election with Trump on the ballot will inevitably be a referendum on Trump.

And if he’s not the ballot will make it a referendum on Biden.

Trump is as likely to be on the ballot as Biden is at this point.

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

Yup, especially if Lake is the R-nominee. That said, the group she's targeting is pretty small and I doubt she'll break double digits in the end. It will be the trouncing she fully deserves.

I don't think she'll do much better than the libertarian candidate, honestly.

[DaleCooper]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

[DaleCooper]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

Her buddies on the right (McConnell, Cornyn, etc) seem to want her to be re-elected. At first, I thought she would love to spoil the race and help a republican get elected.

But her buddies probably don't want someone as unhinged and mental as Kari Lake in their caucus. They'd honestly probably rather have Gallego than Kari Lake in the senate chamber, stirring the pot.

Kari Lake (and Blake Masters) would probably be right at home in the House where they can join the Freedom Caucus.

I guess McConnell is pretty out of touch. The problem is that they're probably only going to win three Senate seats next year (and that's not certain if they keep clowning around), which sets them up to easily lose the Senate in 2026 if Trump is president and given how 2022 went maybe even make the Senate a tossup with a second Biden term. They need every seat they can get, so throwing any Republican support behind Sinema would practically guarantee Gallego's victory as opposed to just supporting Lake and hoping enough dead-ender McCain Democrats spoil their ballots and vote for Sinema to throw the election to the GOP. Like I said, Senate Republicans seem to be very delusional about their best course of action in 2024 so we'll see. Nothing would surprise me.