AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Please primary out Sinema with Gallego and give the GOP another chance to win a senate seat in Arizona.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think the smartest move for Sinema would be to switch parties.

She isn't switching parties she voted for KBJ she is D yeah you would love that and let obstructionist McConnell block Biden judges


Sinema and Manchin out KBJ in SCOTUS so Rs if they gained the Senate and if Breyer died McConnells didn't obstruction

I would have voted for KBJ.
So did Collins for instance.
What's your point?

Sinema would be a valued addition to the GOP caucus.

She is not a conservative, I would rather see her be a non-caucusing independent but then she would lose her committee assignments.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Please primary out Sinema with Gallego and give the GOP another chance to win a senate seat in Arizona.

I hope the AZ GOP doesn't learn any lessons from this year's results and continue to underestimate Gallego at their own will like the quoted post above.

If they nominate someone like Finchem, they likely lose. If they nominate a more "normal" politician like KTR or Matt Salmon they have a good shot at it. Both of them have been influential recently in trying to get Kelli Ward out of the AZ GOP chair position.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Also is Sinema really at much risk for losing a primary challenge? In 2014 winter McCain was like net -20 with Republicans. AZ GOP censured him and his opponent was a right wing base candidate Kelli Ward (sound familiar). In the end though he ended up winning his primary election with 51% of the vote. Primarying out a sitting senator is much harder than it seems.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I didn't vote for Sinema in 2020, but she most likely has my vote in 2024 unless the GOP puts a solid candidate up.

As for the GOP there is going to be a lot more wiggle room with the nominee. I don't think we need to put a Yee type again, but someone like Finchem might be a bridge too far. I wouldn't mind seeing a Masters sequel run, but I'm not sure what he has changed from 2022. Either Matt Salmon or KTR will likely run as well. The issue for MAGA in AZ was there was a good chunk of "McCain" voters that went for the Dems, but if they go for Sinema over Gallego that leaves the door wide open.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

Senate voting record doesn't really paint a good picture because the majority of stuff she opposes the Dems on involves nuking the filibuster. Most stuff that takes the floor for a vote is reconciliation or bipartisan stuff.

Anyway I don't think the R nominee is going to be focused on attacking Sinema at all because there is little to no benefit to it. The whole advantage of her is that she takes the moderate McCain people's votes and allows Rs to win with a plurality. Instead they likely attack the Dem as far left to increase Sinema's chances to play a spoiler.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

She's betting on Gallego and Finchem being nominated and then saying "look at the far left and far right" vote for a moderate instead! I think she absolutely could pull it off if she plays her cards right and plays for the moderates. She also has incumbency advantage which helps.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gregstantonaz/status/1616194816437637121?cxt=HHwWgsC-...
Stanton NOT running for Senate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Honestly,
I don't want to do some wish talking but I wouldn't be surprised if Sinema self sabotages herself like "oh I didn't get the number of signatures needed!"

It's going to mirror the presidential election I guess

I don't think "sabotage" is even necessary. 42k signatures from Indies only with approximately no one willing to volunteer is a really high bar. A lot of people don't know what party they're registered with so you'll get a lot of false positives so you need WAY WAY more than 42k signatures.

There will be nearly 900k registered independents in Maricopa county alone, around 1.4M statewide, I think she can get the numbers she needs.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

Not in a heavily federalized Senate race; 10% is prolly her ceiling. A lot of it will depend upon how she carves out her space though.

I wasn’t alive in 2016, but can anyone explain why Swing got such a high share; always confused me, especially since Kirkpatrick seemed fine.

Although McCain was considered somewhat vulnerable during 2016 it was pretty clear by October that he was going to win. A large portion of the AZ Dems are activist liberals, and did not like Kirkpatrick's centrist brand (not too different with how they view Sinema) and found no reason to hold their noses and vote for her since McCain was on track to victory anyway. As a result, a decent amount of them voted Swing which is why Kirkpatrick got just 41%.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.

https://twitter.com/SenatorSinema/status/1617633841065385986?s=20&t=p1l_f295...

Just found this which is quite interesting. Basically a lot of mayors around greater Pheonix saying positive things of Sinema. Most seem to represent swingy to red leaning outer suburbs and exurbs, and if I had to guess, prolly a mix of people who usually vote R except during 2020/2022 and mayors who held their nose and voted for Masters/Lake reluctantly.

Now just because they said nice things doesn't necessarily mean they will end up supporting or endorsing her formally, but still interesting and def goes along with your general theory.

Both Mayor Ortega and Giles endorsed Kelly, so if they were to support Sinema over Gallego it would be a sign of erosion for Dem support. I am unfamiliar with the other ones.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1644404176061972480

[Arizona Iced Tea]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is Lake even running for this? It looks like she is aiming to be Trump's VP.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Sinema is an extremely toxic topic in Democratic voting circles, if anything she'll more likely take votes away from disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

"McCainite Republicans" voted Hobbs and our at this point a part of a winning Democrat coalition in AZ.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/opinions/kari-lake-mccain-arizona-republicans-gabriel/index.html

Lake came very close to winning despite telling McCain supporters not to vote for her.

Sinema is incredibly unpopular in left wing voting circles but those McCain Republicans  are likely voters that dems still need in AZ

Yeah. It’s hard for me to tell if these folks are officially Ds (since so many have now voted that way for 8 years…) or can be lured back. My guess is yes to both

Where are you getting 8 years from? Ducey 2014? McCain 2016? It's more like 4 years starting in 2018 with Sinema.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Sinema is an extremely toxic topic in Democratic voting circles, if anything she'll more likely take votes away from disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

"McCainite Republicans" voted Hobbs and our at this point a part of a winning Democrat coalition in AZ.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/opinions/kari-lake-mccain-arizona-republicans-gabriel/index.html

Lake came very close to winning despite telling McCain supporters not to vote for her.

Sinema is incredibly unpopular in left wing voting circles but those McCain Republicans  are likely voters that dems still need in AZ

Yeah. It’s hard for me to tell if these folks are officially Ds (since so many have now voted that way for 8 years…) or can be lured back. My guess is yes to both

Where are you getting 8 years from? Ducey 2014? McCain 2016? It's more like 4 years starting in 2018 with Sinema.

A lot of them didn’t vote for Trump in 2016. He had a very poor showing for top of ticket R

Yes most of them voted Gary Johnson, but my point is they voted Republican in other races as recently as 2016. I'm very skeptical they voted for Kirkpatrick over McCain.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary. Masters isn't interested, he's likely going to wait for Gosar to retire and run for that seat. Hamadeh is also considering it but he's said he won't run if Lake does.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sinema has decent odds of winning if her opponents are Gallego and Lake. Very easy to paint the far-left vs far-right vs centrist approach in that situation. Its like catnip for white suburbanites.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm not a fan of Masters but he's much better than the obnoxious Kari Lake and her lesbian haircut. A Lake Gallego race would be the most toxic election of all time and would give Sinema the golden oppurtunity to be the only sane one in the room and win.

The idea that people will hold their nose and vote for Gallego or Lake implies Sinema is a Gary Johnson tier candidate and Arizonans don't want to waste their vote. But when you take the two most annoying candidates from each party, all of a sudden Sinema becomes a viable option, get the McCain family's endorsement, and once she is viewed as an equivalent force as the other two, winning is suddenly in the cards for her.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

Their recruitment isn't good but Daines has done enough to where its better than 2022 for sure. Jim Justice is a slam dunk in WV most likely, assuming Manchin somehow runs. LaRose or Dolan is likely going to be the nominee in Ohio and a significant upgrade to the Mandel's and Renacci's of the past. Montana might be an issue if Rosendale announces and becomes the nominee, but assuming he doesn't Sheehy is okay. Nevada becomes a failure if Marchant beats out Sam Brown. Wisconsin doesn't look good right now but its still early and the only person who officially filed is some rando. Pennsylvania is also dissapointing as it will likely be McCormick who is pretty meh, but at least better than Mastriano I guess. For all the hate the MI GOP gets their field is surprisingly decent especially if Peter Meijer gets in.

They are doing better than 2022 for sure, but also the bare minimum.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Without more details and sourcing I'm hesitant to put this in the polling board, but I think it's worth mentioning here:

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1719461063475782105

R vs D numbers is basically useless in Arizona at this point. The million dollar question is if Sinema is winning over more Trump or Biden, or Lake or Hobbs voters.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1722353962483900792?t=M-ypekJFP-TUZOI...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do not like Kari Lake and I wish she would quit politics forever. I will gladly vote for Trump in the Presidential primary but will be casting my ballot against Lake.