AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1633264899974635520

New party has ballot access in AZ for 2024. Probably one willing to give Senima their ballot line.

For a state like AZ this is big IMO. There are a lot of independents , moderates, libertarians', etc type people who really hate both parties, think both are corrupt, and are super "in the middle". This could have effects on who wins considering the state is usually close.

[Cyrusman]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

Obviously. But these people would take their cues from the figureheads that a vote for Sinema is essentially a vote for Lake/Lamb. In the end, I don’t think many actual “McCainites” (I’m skeptical that many of them exist anymore—they seem to be solid Democrats now since 2018) would actually vote for Sinema knowing it could hand the seat to Lake.

But if these “McCainites” vote for a progressive like Gallego, they would be voting for someone who has nothing in common with what John McCain's positions were, so do you really see that happening? Gallego is to the left of even Kelly. People that voted for John McCain all those years were in no way progressives.

[Cyrusman]

Masters seems to have learned from his mistakes. I don’t know if it will be enough to beat Gallego but Lake would be far weaker

Not sure if "mistakes" are the main reason for his defeat, the guy just comes across as an extremely weird creep in a way that isn't easy to rectify. I think it's going to take more than 2 years for him to be seen as something other than a weirdo 4chan poster type.

I've heard this often, but what is it about him that gives off that vibe? His face, tone, way he speaks?

[Cyrusman]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

[Cyrusman]

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

This.
Also, I don't see why Gallego would be a bridge too far for these people. Yeah, he is to the left of both Sinema and Kelly but it's not like he is a Cori Bush or Lee Carter kind of Democrat.

So did these "republicans" just all have complete ideology changes or were they never really Republicans and more so just McCain loyal independents who liked him mainly. I get not voting Trump, but the people they are voting for are completely different in terms of their views and polices.

[Cyrusman]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

Does AZ have more of these type of "republicans" than PA, NV, GA, WI, MI, etc.. Just feels like Dems hit 10% of the GOP vote pretty easily and a lot more common in AZ that other swing states.

[Cyrusman]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

[Cyrusman]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

Gallego is just too liberal to significantly outrun Biden. Yes, I think he's favored but that's mainly because Biden is probably going to win AZ again. Mark Kelly only outran Biden by around 2 points despite people expecting a much larger victory.

Mark Kelly is a lot less liberal than Gallego is. I get that Lake isn't a great candidate, but do you get any feel that with "how liberal" Gallego is that could hurt him in suburbs like Scottsdale, Gilbert, Chandler, Peoria, or will that not have any effect?

[Cyrusman]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

Gallego is just too liberal to significantly outrun Biden. Yes, I think he's favored but that's mainly because Biden is probably going to win AZ again. Mark Kelly only outran Biden by around 2 points despite people expecting a much larger victory.

I think sometimes this matters (if he was a squad member or something), but what matters is 'perception' more - and I'm not on the ground in AZ, but Gallego seems to have a good schtick, kind of like Jon Ossoff - where they may be very liberal, but they aren't perceived that way. Or even Mark Kelly tbh, he's not really a 'moderate' per se, he's gone along with all the progressive priorities of the Biden admin. But people still see him as an independent maverick a bit. Now, that's probably a stretch for Gallego, but I also don't think he is or will be seen as some extreme leftwing guy, especially with Lake as his foil. He just needs to be normal at this point.

Would you say this basically comes down to how well your opponent can make the voters of that state understand the "real you" in the sense of fully understanding your opponents voting record, opinions, etc..
For example did David Perdue, and Blake Masters do a poor job with their ads by not showing the people of AZ/GA how liberal those senators are?

Same in ME, did Sara Gideon do a poor job of when it came to her ads by not showing the people of ME how conservative Collins really is?