AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema or Gallego win, Gallego seems like he is staying since Rs only won 6 seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's projected it's gonna be 220/215 R H and we're gonna win 5 seats back in 24 anyways because no one is gonna challenge Gillibrand and Kaine is gonna win in 24 and win VA

They will have Incumbency advantage but that won't have weight in NY and of course if we lose CA seats Garcia he probably loses with Feinstein on ballot

Don't be overly dramatic we only lost the H thanks to NY, VA and CA blue States that can be won back in 24 Feinstein, Kaine and Gillibrand are on the ballot in 24

Sinema is safe Sabato and Cook predicted 237 RH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

Congratulations to Senator-elect Gallego, in that case.

Lake already stated she isn't interested in running for Senate or H only she wanted to be Gov these are same users that thinks Sandoval is gonna run against Rosen and Sandoval is Prez of UNLV Law school and declined to run against CCM

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

AZGOP isn't the smartest.

When the neofascists send their people, they're not sending their best

So was John McCain single-handedly holding the state party together or something?

He was pro Environment most of these Rs running are pro fossil fuels but Ducey was a centrist that's why Ducey and McCain won coincidence the only Eday that Trump won was 2016 when McCain was on the ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ruben Gallego sounds like he is prepping for a Sen run if the Senate ends up Tied we don't need obstruction Sinema blocking Voting Rights with a D H because Manchin was a gon on the Filibuster before Sinema blocked it

He said he is waiting til first of the ye but odds on Fav he is gonna primary her , we are too divided to have Sinema keep blocking Voting Rights

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the smartest move for Sinema would be to switch parties.

She isn't switching parties she voted for KBJ she is D yeah you would love that and let obstructionist McConnell block Biden judges


Sinema and Manchin out KBJ in SCOTUS so Rs if they gained the Senate and if Breyer died McConnells didn't obstruction

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state is on pause until Ruben Gallego enters the primary he said that this is a big Eday 218/217 H and 51/50D Sen and Voting Rights must pass meaning Sinema Filibuster must ends but we don't know if he is running yet he said wait til next year

We have good candidates for Senate already John Love, Brown, Tester, Manchin, and Tim Kaine, Ruben Gallego will be a star if he wins the primary and GE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really doubt Sinema is a fundraiser for other Democrats given she didn’t campaign for anyone else in Arizona this cycle.

Ruben Gallego is likely to mount a primary challenge anyways and with both Manchin and Sinema gone Ds have a clear path to 51/50 S and 218/217 with NY, CA along can get Ds that 218 in the H

I am confident Tester and Brown will survive DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24 and Rs aren't gonna win FL, OH 60/40 make way for Brown even if OH goes 3/5 R

Daines beat Bullock in MT by 9 he is much better candidate than Rosendale whom Tester already beat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what Sinema thinks she never does press
conference, she only takes to the floor of the Senate like SSM and Filibuster REFORM when an issue comes up.

Those were the two issues she cared about and that was it, oh and she endorsed Joe Kennedy for Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol she supported Joe Kennedy and voted for KBJ to replace Breyer we don't even know if Gallego runs if he died beat her she would not run as an Indy she was a lifelong Ds she is just a blue dog but she is no Zell Milker

People want to make predictions of a primary and Gallego hasn't even decided to run just like users think Brown, Tester and Manchin and Beshear are toast and it's 2 yrs and Johnson proved there are no auto flips with Incumbents without any POLL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reverand Barber is actively recruiting Ruben Gallego to challenge Sinema so I thinks it's a go but he said he won't make a decision before the end of 2023

We can afford to lose Sinema and Manchin as long as Brown, Tester, Warnock and Gallego win and it's a 218/217 DH and 51/50 S, the H obviously favors Ds regardless of whether Speaker McCarthy gets to 218 or not they don't have the votes to launch a Partisan impeachment against Biden and if they did it will hurt NE and CA Rs even moreso than they are vulnerable now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego said he isn't making a decision before the end of 23 not 22 stop worrying about a primary that hasn't even happened yet, it's not 24 yet it's barely 23 and we have a long time before KY Gov race

Just like users assumed just because we lost red states in 22 we are gonna lose them forever and that's not true Stein is winning in NC and Beasley lost

Beshear can win because guess what Laura Kelly won Incumbents are winning just like Brown has a better chance than Ryan not because he is immortal DeWine isn't on the ballot Trump or DeSantis aren't gonna win by 20 that's the only reason why Ryan lost if he ran in 24 he would win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ruben GALLEGO doesn't have to primary her he can be the D nominee

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2024 becomes a game of chicken for the Democrats.

I suspect despite her objectively terrible favorables with Democrats she would still hurt a potential D candidate more than a GOP one.

The fact is I can't see many AZ Lake voters voting for her and in a 3 way race they are enough.

Her "base" is probably moderate dems, old McCain republicans. 

Do we have polls showing her favorability with how people voted in 2022? That will give us a better idea of who she would hurt. 

Ruben GALLEGO hasn't announced for Sen yet and it's tough because Ds can take the H in the next Eday cycle Rs we're supposed to win. 240 seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She says she is still a Democrat and it doesn't change the balance of power

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema has really put Dems in a tough position now...wish we can get some new polling data on how a hypothetical 3 way matchup with Sinema as Indie would look like

Is she even going to run? I find that increasingly hard to believe. She also might take more votes from the Republican, especially if they nominate another wacko like Ms. Lake.

White females prefer SSM over men because it's more accepting to be Lesbian than gay due to sports but those athletes are rich and women marry them for love as well as money

Why do you think the majority of homeless are single blk men they are unmarried they are poor that don't have wives, some of them do make it but most of them don't because teenage pregnancy went down and poor black men stop having kids

They said WARNOCK improved with White female because SSM passed after Eday of SSM passed before Eday Vance would have lost and Johnson they were the weakest R Sen Candidate out there

Baldwin, Lesbian beat Tommy Thompson and Sinema is very close to Baldwin and Gallego might not challenge her he may stay in H if he loses his political career is over like Tim Ryan that's why he won't make a decision before the end of 23, not 22, but Rev Barber wants him to run

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Corny already said they aren't running against Sinema which leaves Tester and Manchin and Rick Scott vulnerable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do y'all not realize we're living in the Krysten-Sinema-for-President-in-2024 timeline?

Biden already said he is running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on the WVA pipeline during this Congress it's DOA but in the next Congress it's not with an RH it's likely to be in the Debt Ceiling along with extended tax cuts and Border wall anyways they are just not gonna touch entitlements

We just gotta win a combo of WVA, MT, OH, FL and TX and FL and OH aren't voting 20% to the right of the nation in a Prez yr and Biden polls in Rassy are 50/49 why because Gas prices are 3.31 not 6.99 anymore that's why Putin gave up Griner


Will Justice be a Fav over Manchin yes he would but there is still a pathway for Ds to keep the Senate if we lose MANCHIN and Sinema Gallego, Brown and TESTER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One thing I think hurts Sinema in this case is the fact she was a social worker. I feel like that has def influenced her speaking style to make it very poised, relatively monotone, and generally calm. While generally this might be something that works in her benefit as I'd argue it did in 2018, when your unpopular politician who gets tons of media coverage, that sort of thing can really make you just seem so disconnected and robotic.

I've never heard Sinema really raise her voice or yell back and in a way I kind of want her to, which is messed up.

In many ways, Sinema is actually a very effective Senator and if she optic-ed herself differently, she could probably get away with still opposing the filibuster and stuff

You do realize Tammy Baldwin is Lesbian and she beat Tommy Thompson she purposely became an Indy because Gallego it will be harder to win a 3 way than a primary , that's why GALLEGO hasn't announced yet because if he loses his career is over like Tim Ryan that's why Rs would love for him to get in

He is gonna wait until the Rs find a candidate and will evaluate the race then, if he feels he can't win a three way he won't run

The  Rs would love to pickup this seat in a three way that's why they want GALLEGO to challenge Sinema

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that Gallego won't run there are other ways to get to 52/48 Secular Trifecta without Gallego that's FL with Sancrainte and TX with John Love, the EC map goes thru TX and FL anyways and polls are showing that Border issue is losing steam over voters that voters are now supporting amnesty for migrants why because COVID  is going down only in nursing homes community living are persons dying from Covid it's still deadly but we are fully open, HIV is the deadly disease but it's mostly a female disease but men can still get it

Also, Rick Scott isn't Rubio, Rubio won by 20 solely based on Cuban and Scott has won all his races by 1 percent because he is an average Joe that's why DeSantis is losing to Biden he won with the help with Rubio, he won barely when he ran with Rick Scott look at the polls I posted Biden is up on DeSantis and Trump by 4 because Gas prices are 40 a barrel

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There isn't anyone running yet for D primary so we just have to wait and see TX Senate is gonna be more competetove than FL because we lost TX by 11 and FL by 2o, why because FL is a Cuban state and the other states that have Latinos in it have Mexicans

If you go to FL it's Little Havana if you go anywhere else its Mexico City with Tacos, but let's wait until all the Candidates are DECLARED , the Prez race is gonna be close though Biden is leading Trump in FL but as I have always said split VOTING you can have TX voting red for Prez blue for Sen and FL voting Blue for Prez and Red for Senate why because there are Latinos that still want PR statehood, that's why my signature is the way it is but Gallego is more likely to be the D nominee but we shall see, why is Gallego so popular he is Tim Ryan both are friends but Latinx

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She has a better chance now to winning running as an Indy not as a D because Gallego or Stratton are gonna see if Rs announce a challenger and if they run they can lose this seat for the D, Gallego or Stratton hasn't announced yet because if they Lose they will be like Tim Ryan why do you think she became any independent because it would be difficult for a D to challenge her

It can go both ways Gallego and Stratton whom are close to Tim Ryan are fully aware of what happened to him, he was a Prez prospect like Joe Kennedy for 28 , Ryan said Harris and Biden team, it's time to move on and he LOST, now Harris, 28 Prez is the Fav now and the only person that can challenge her nor Newsom whom is at 6 percent and won't give Reparations to carpetbagger blks, he is a hypocrite he said females can carpetbagger to Cali for abortion but you can't carpetbagger for reparations, that's not gonna help him in the D primary it's Wes Moore whom hasn't taken office yet

Gallego and Stratton said they will make a decision after the Debt Ceiling I'm the summer users are so impatient the 24 campaign gets heated up in Summer 23 not now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Andy Briggs is not gonna be able to run he is tied to the insurrection for Senate and Ducey said he isn't interested and neither is Lake that only leaves Gallego and he said this morning he is thinking about running, Rs aren't winning a three way with Gallego in the race, Masters isn't gonna run and Briggs, Ducey and Lake are gone

As I said before all our Senators have decent Approvals 46/30 as well as Brown, Tester and Joe Manchin has a 51/38 Approvals and Rs keep saying that Brown, Tester and Manchin are DoA and Vance and Johnson won 37/41 Approvals, Warnock had a 46/30

Guess what Ted Cruz approvals are 43/48

Vance won with 37/41 Approvals solely based on DeWine

Of course Tester if he retires it's an R pickup but I doubt he does since Daines in NRSC chairman

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lake already said she isn't interested and she isn't on politics 1.com Biggs is on there, but no questions asked Gallego is Latino Mexican not Cubans like in FL or TX different breed that's why Castros don't run in TX last name and Ted Cruz

But, no questions asked TX or FL are still battlegrounds, Rs just overperform in Rubio yrs not Cruz yrs he only won by 2