AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Oh yeah. Yes, Bernie Sanders has definitely done more damage than Ron DeSantis. Banning trans people is not as bad as social democracy, in practical terms.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Oh yeah. Yes, Bernie Sanders has definitely done more damage than Ron DeSantis. Banning trans people is not as bad as social democracy, in practical terms.

Don't want to derail this thread too much, but DeSantis isn't as powerful as Bernie. Of course his policies are worse than Bernie's.

[free my dawg]

the governor of the third largest state in the union

who spearheaded the revival of the anti-gay movement and the trans panic

is less powerful than a random senator from vermont

JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS

[Tekken_Guy]

the governor of the third largest state in the union

who spearheaded the revival of the anti-gay movement and the trans panic

is less powerful than a random senator from vermont

JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS

“A random senator from Vermont”.

Don’t you mean a two-time Democratic presidential runner-up and the de facto leader of the American progressive movement for nearly a decade.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about: Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis are both major figures in recent American politics.  They've both had significant influence in different ways.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kari Lake, the gift that keeps on giving.

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1765394392062267666

[wbrocks67]

Gallego has really ramped up the advertising since Tuesday. I'm now seeing 3 different versions of his paid ad now on Twitter lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego has this anyways since Sinema dropped out Lake is a retread

[wbrocks67]

Gallego has really ramped up the advertising since Tuesday. I'm now seeing 3 different versions of his paid ad now on Twitter lol

and speaking of

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1765729593313378559

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SplitTicket_/status/1765801426092273977

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/SplitTicket_/status/1765801426092273977

I don't much care for how that map has Ohio and Montana as "Leans republican" even though Brown and Tester have lead in every single poll of their respective races, albeit narrowly. "Tossup" would be acceptable given the MOE and tightness of the polling, leaning the way of the current loser in polling is not.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/SplitTicket_/status/1765801426092273977

Thank you Kari Lake for your support. Very cool.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

Maricopa is a D country and she lost it already in Gov race to Katie Hobbs MT and OH aren't Lean R

[free my dawg]

the governor of the third largest state in the union

who spearheaded the revival of the anti-gay movement and the trans panic

is less powerful than a random senator from vermont

JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS

“A random senator from Vermont”.

Don’t you mean a two-time Democratic presidential runner-up and the de facto leader of the American progressive movement for nearly a decade.

Yes, and that is what he has largely been. He certainly pushed policies from within, like stimulus and student loan forgiveness, but he has for all intents and purposes been a loyal partisan Democrat. I don't want to derail this thread into more 2016/2020 litigation. All I'll say is that nobody is entitled to the nomination and if a candidate wanted to win, then maybe they should have appealed to more voters.

I don't think I need to explain to people why using the power of the state to shove people into the closet is harmful. The LGBT movement used to be a consensus - remember when McCrory got schlonged by Cooper for proposing the same stuff that you see nowadays? Now it's moreso accepted! You have people encouraging hate against the LGBT community and its allies and supposed "Democrats" are still throwing a hissy fit about a primary from nine years ago.

Saying Bernie caused more harm than DeSantis is genuinely one of the most privileged things I've heard in my ten years on this forum. Maybe he's not a random Senator from Vermont anymore, but he's definitely taken a back seat while DeSantis has cemented himself in the now.

[wbrocks67]

But Axios told me that Lake was going to gear up for the general by not doing this anymore...

https://twitter.com/InsidePolitics/status/1766816858655625543

[Roll Roons]

She's the worst, and I suspect a lot of Arizonans feel the same way. This is Likely D.

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs endorses Gallego, unsurprisingly:

https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1767216862792974811


Hobbs has become pretty popular though; her approval is up to 51/38 (and 52/38 fav) in Noble's latest poll:

https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/governor-hobbs-outlasts-honeymoon-period-with-arizona-voters?utm_content=285156700&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-804770917846876160

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1767549888449953865

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1767549888449953865

That seems like a message that's playing well in a state like AZ.

[Virginiá]

Side-note: Would Gallego be the first Hispanic senator from Arizona? Hadn't thought about it until now but scrolling through past senators it just looks like a bunch of white guys and then a couple white women recently.

[Cyrusman]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

Gallego is just too liberal to significantly outrun Biden. Yes, I think he's favored but that's mainly because Biden is probably going to win AZ again. Mark Kelly only outran Biden by around 2 points despite people expecting a much larger victory.

[Cyrusman]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

Gallego is just too liberal to significantly outrun Biden. Yes, I think he's favored but that's mainly because Biden is probably going to win AZ again. Mark Kelly only outran Biden by around 2 points despite people expecting a much larger victory.

Mark Kelly is a lot less liberal than Gallego is. I get that Lake isn't a great candidate, but do you get any feel that with "how liberal" Gallego is that could hurt him in suburbs like Scottsdale, Gilbert, Chandler, Peoria, or will that not have any effect?

[wbrocks67]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

Gallego is just too liberal to significantly outrun Biden. Yes, I think he's favored but that's mainly because Biden is probably going to win AZ again. Mark Kelly only outran Biden by around 2 points despite people expecting a much larger victory.

I think sometimes this matters (if he was a squad member or something), but what matters is 'perception' more - and I'm not on the ground in AZ, but Gallego seems to have a good schtick, kind of like Jon Ossoff - where they may be very liberal, but they aren't perceived that way. Or even Mark Kelly tbh, he's not really a 'moderate' per se, he's gone along with all the progressive priorities of the Biden admin. But people still see him as an independent maverick a bit. Now, that's probably a stretch for Gallego, but I also don't think he is or will be seen as some extreme leftwing guy, especially with Lake as his foil. He just needs to be normal at this point.