AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL Gallego is leading Lake, RS aren't winning with Lake, RS are bleeding support from White Females Janet Protasicwz was a White Female


RS forget what happened to them in 2006/2012 when they contested NJ with MENENDEZ scandel with Kean Jr and Bob MENENDEZ still won, Latinos win, look at Rubio and Gallego is Mexican, and he is popular and friends with Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1644404121267580929
https://twitter.com/byelin/status/1644404825503723521

Her goal isn't to win reelection. It's to split the vote so that Republicans flip the seat. If we somehow hold Montana and Ohio, but lose the Senate because of Sinema, I'm going to be furious.

Why exactly would she do this? What is she getting in return for doing that?

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

And don’t Republicans need some voters who held their nose for the likes of Trump and Lake? With Sinema on the ballot, they’ll have a way to oppose Gallego without having to vote for a MAGA Republican

[Spectator]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

Obviously. But these people would take their cues from the figureheads that a vote for Sinema is essentially a vote for Lake/Lamb. In the end, I don’t think many actual “McCainites” (I’m skeptical that many of them exist anymore—they seem to be solid Democrats now since 2018) would actually vote for Sinema knowing it could hand the seat to Lake.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

This is an interesting question about Arizona - how large actually is this "traditionally Moderate-Conservative McCain" voting block many seem to talk about. Hobbs for instance was able to win on a pretty generic D campaign in 2018 against a normal R, only a 2% underperformance of Sinema who ran a very moderate campaign that aimed to appeal to these types of voters.

Even if this block is small, in most elections it could matter. I tend to believe that a large chunk of them might vote for Sinema if she was actually viable but know the real choice is between Gallego and whoever the R is. Who they choose from there depends upon how progressive Gallego is painted as (part of the reason I believe he needs to avoid making the difference between him and Sinema one of ideology), and who the R candidate is obviously.

[Cyrusman]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

Obviously. But these people would take their cues from the figureheads that a vote for Sinema is essentially a vote for Lake/Lamb. In the end, I don’t think many actual “McCainites” (I’m skeptical that many of them exist anymore—they seem to be solid Democrats now since 2018) would actually vote for Sinema knowing it could hand the seat to Lake.

But if these “McCainites” vote for a progressive like Gallego, they would be voting for someone who has nothing in common with what John McCain's positions were, so do you really see that happening? Gallego is to the left of even Kelly. People that voted for John McCain all those years were in no way progressives.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

Obviously. But these people would take their cues from the figureheads that a vote for Sinema is essentially a vote for Lake/Lamb. In the end, I don’t think many actual “McCainites” (I’m skeptical that many of them exist anymore—they seem to be solid Democrats now since 2018) would actually vote for Sinema knowing it could hand the seat to Lake.

But if these “McCainites” vote for a progressive like Gallego, they would be voting for someone who has nothing in common with what John McCain's positions were, so do you really see that happening? Gallego is to the left of even Kelly. People that voted for John McCain all those years were in no way progressives.

You are wrong McCain was Environmentalist just like Teddy Roosevelt, AZ, CA, WA, OR, NV, NM and CO are Wildfire States he was pupil of Nixon and Ford that started the EPA
 
Judd Gregg, Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe and Lincoln Chafee and McCain were all against drilling in Arctic

Nixon was a Moderate Republican and Ford they were pro Environment because they Appointed John Paul Stevens and Harry Blackmun pro Environment to SCOTUS

[UncleSam]

It is pure copium from Ds to fantasize that an incumbent Democratic senator running as an independent would take more voters from Rs than Ds in the event she makes the ballot at all.

It is also pure copium from Rs to think that she will have anything other than a marginal (>.5%) impact on the race.

I know people are obsessed with moderates and neutrals but can we stop talking about Sinema as if she will have any real impact on this race if she runs as an I until there is some evidence she is attracting serious levels of support.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It is pure copium from Ds to fantasize that an incumbent Democratic senator running as an independent would take more voters from Rs than Ds in the event she makes the ballot at all.

Um, every poll shows that she is significantly more popular among Republicans.
And if reports are to be believed her general election strategy is to court moderate Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema is DONE did users take notice of WI plus 11 that proves that Approvals are bogus Biden is in Rassy sitting at 48/50 not 40/58

[Sir Mohamed]

I almost can't believe Sinema running as indie and seeing any "path to victory". There is none. Zero. You must suffer from a special kind of delusion to assume this.

If she wasn't such an attention seeker, she could have been a favorite for reelection by just voting like her colleague Mark Kelly.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1645805482978983936

[UncleSam]

It is pure copium from Ds to fantasize that an incumbent Democratic senator running as an independent would take more voters from Rs than Ds in the event she makes the ballot at all.

Um, every poll shows that she is significantly more popular among Republicans.
And if reports are to be believed her general election strategy is to court moderate Republicans.

From self-described Rs talking to pollsters maybe.

Not from actual people who are going to vote Republican in 2024 though.

[Pollster]

The only successful strategy the Republican establishment has employed in recent years to stop disaster candidates from winning primaries is propping up stalking horses that siphon voters from the toxic candidate's base (see Kansas 2020) - entirely possible Lamb winds up doing this vis a vis Lake.

(The stalking horse candidate is often, but not always, an unknowing and/or unwilling participant in this strategy.)

[oldtimer]

I almost can't believe Sinema running as indie and seeing any "path to victory". There is none. Zero. You must suffer from a special kind of delusion to assume this.

If she wasn't such an attention seeker, she could have been a favorite for reelection by just voting like her colleague Mark Kelly.

I agree.

Few have any respect for those elected under false pretenses.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is Lake even running for this? It looks like she is aiming to be Trump's VP.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Lake even running for this? It looks like she is aiming to be Trump's VP.

Didn't she also encourage Lamb to run a few months ago?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I almost can't believe Sinema running as indie and seeing any "path to victory". There is none. Zero. You must suffer from a special kind of delusion to assume this.

If she wasn't such an attention seeker, she could have been a favorite for reelection by just voting like her colleague Mark Kelly.

Manifold Markets has some weirdos who think she is favored because "muh incumbency" and "muh moderate Republicans" and the notion that she could move left in her voting record this term, when asked if that was her intention why she didn't just stay a Democrat and then start voting like a generic D the argument is basically something about how she could be playing 5-D chess and we don't know what the plans are now. Kind of amusing and a shame the market isn't dealing in real money (and I hardly ever use it anymore anyway.)

What I think people also aren't taking into account is Arizona has a pretty high signature threshold for ballot access and there's no reason to assume that Sinema can even make it, to collect them she'd have to either recruit an army of volunteers except that no one likes her, or hire canvassers except that no one's going to donate to her because: 1-she lacks any party's fundraising apparatus and 2-again no one likes her. And while "corporate PACs" is the stock reply for who would donate to her, they can only donate so much, and might not even be interested because they also think she has no chance and it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I guess maybe some Twitter-brained people might volunteer because they assume she'd take votes primarily from the other party (notice how Republicans tend to think she'd pull more Democrats and Democrats tend to think she'd pull more Republicans) but you got to wonder how much of any such people exist in the real world and how effective this is (after all Kanye's ballot access strategy was mostly based on Republicans assuming this.)

[Tekken_Guy]

Is Lake even running for this? It looks like she is aiming to be Trump's VP.

I doubt Trump has already picked his VP at this point, so she may want a fallback option in case she gets snubbed.

[ultraviolet]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

[Zedonathin2020]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Sinema is an extremely toxic topic in Democratic voting circles, if anything she'll more likely take votes away from disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

[Tekken_Guy]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Stop dooming. Gallego could very well have a large enough lead to survive Sinema.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a sense of Doomerville and Eday is next yr not this yr

Especially AZ, OH and all we need is 1 red leaning battleground MT, WV, FL, TX and MO the RS have no room for error they got lucky last time with DeSantis bounce on IAN and Johnson, Vance and Budd all narrowly survived

It was an IAN bump for RS because DeSantis is doing lousy in polls and so are RS , Obama got it from Sandy in 2012

Budd and Rubio would survive been in 24 but Vance and Johnson would have lost and Thune and Grassley in a yr like 24

That's why Kunce can win he has the same Appeal as Tim Ryan

[ultraviolet]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Stop dooming. Gallego could very well have a large enough lead to survive Sinema.

I’ve never been anything close to a doomer lol. This is reality. The people who think more republicans would vote for sinema than democrats are just fantasizing.

[Coldstream]

Whatever polling Sinema is getting right now is her ceiling, she will get squeezed from both sides long before election day and be lucky to get over 6%.